Are we witnessing a railway renaissance?

[Tiny Tim]

Over the history of railways in this country economic downturn has always presaged a similar reduction in railway traffic. Apart from a small drop in 2007-8 passenger journeys have increased, and are presently rising sharply, despite no real improvement in the economy. Freight, whist not as buoyant as passenger traffic, is also on the up. Out of use lines are being brought back into service all around the network. Are we witnessing a railway renaissance? And what's causing it? Perhaps it's a short term bubble that will burst before significant expansion occurs, or is this the beginning of a new railway age?

 

[The Ham]

I think that it is down to a mixture of reasons, including but not limited to:

• petrol costs are high
• trains are reliable
• trains are frequent
• travel by train can be as you need it without large upfront costs
• road travel is unreliable (roadworks, accidents, city centres, etc)
• Trains are no longer seen as a poor man's alternative
• Trains are seen as greener than cars
• Public transport is being encouraged by government (planning policy, tax incentives, etc.)

It is likely that there could well be an end, but I would suggest that as long as more investment is made and road travel doesn't become cheap and green that it could well be some time off.

 

[rf_ioliver]

For some of the reasons stated, yes, but often the move to rail for many to due to circumstance, for example, commuting into London.

Now, if we were truly experiencing a rail renaissance then we'd see more line reopenings, for example: Lewes-Uckfield, Carmarthen-Aberystwyth etc and more "innovation" in terms of services across the country.

You can argue that the GWML electrification,some of the reopenings in Wales and Scotland, HS1/HS2 and new trains such as the Pendolino are demonstration of this but personally I think development of the rail infrastructure is still too centralised to call it a renaissance yet - at least if we compare it to the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

For a renaissance to really hold, I'd personally like to see much more decentralisation in how services are offered and control over things such as rolling stock and lines. I'd like to see a huge reduction in the complexity to (re)open lines, stations and purchase necessary trains. Does it really have to take so long in many cases?

Complex question and I'm sure you'll get many answers, though I think for the most part, things are better now than they were, say, 20 years ago. How much of that is to modernisation and evolution of the rail network and how much to innovation and renaissance...?

t.

Ian

 

[Bald Rick]

Good article in latest Modern Railways about this. In addition to the point above, I would add that

1) The cost and ease of motoring generally has risen considerably, particularly for the young, with insurance prohibitive and the driving test tougher. The proportion of under 25s without a driving licence is much greater now than 10/20 years ago. So they use public transport.

2) The general improvements in public transport, particularly in larger cities, means people don't need a car as much. Combined with (1) above there is thus less incentive to own one in the first place, and without one there is clearly more incentive to use the train. This is a virtuous circle.

3) Oyster in London is similary making it easier to choose rail, as it often lowers the perceived cost and trip time of any journey.

4) There is no doubt that yield management by TOCs is providing some stunning deals and filling off peak seats on longer distance trips. I travelled London to Derby on a Saturday a couple of weeks back, and there were only 6 first class seats free in 3 coaches worth. Unthinkable even 5 years ago.

5) An off the wall one: the high number of european immigrants in the past decade, particularly to London. Many have come without the means to even consider owning a car, and are used to travelling public transport, so that is what they continue to do.

 

[mrcheek]

Can I be heretical and suggest that the main reason for the renaissance is because of privatisation.
Now that services are run by private companies, they are obliged to respond to customer demand, and give the people the services they want, which didnt happen under BR...

 

[yorkie]

Can I be heretical and suggest that the main reason for the renaissance is because of privatisation.
Now that services are run by private companies, they are obliged to respond to customer demand, and give the people the services they want, which didnt happen under BR...

I'd rather this didn't turn into yet another thread about privatisation - we've had loads of them! And I very much doubt it, given that was 20 years ago.

 

[JB1601]

There's something to be said also for the rise and rise of smartphones and tablets. It's become a lot easier to pass the time on a long train journey than it used to in a way that you can't do when driving as you need to concentrate on the road.

 

[sprinterguy]

Now that services are run by private companies, they are obliged to respond to customer demand, and give the people the services they want, which didnt happen under BR...

I cannot see that very much at all on the current railway. If anything, the modern privatised railway is even less reponsive to change than BR was due to excessive micro-management from the DfT and short-term thinking from the train operators brought on by the awarding of short franchises that offer very little incentive to do anything more than maintain the status quo for as long as their tenure lasts.

Which was to be my main point in this thread anyway, just to excuse myself of any accusations of stoking the BR/Privatisation debate : In terms of passenger demand, yes the railways are experiencing a renaissance, but damned if the railway is actually going to respond to it in any sort of a timely manner...

 

[cle]

There's something to be said also for the rise and rise of smartphones and tablets. It's become a lot easier to pass the time on a long train journey than it used to in a way that you can't do when driving as you need to concentrate on the road.

excellent point - flexible working too and BlackBerrys allow people to be more productive outside of the work place than being sat in their cars.

That said, it is largely dealing with emails! Which themselves didn't *truly* exist 20 years ago. So a modern solution to a modern problem - not an evolution for a long-standing problem.

I think we are seeing a slight renaissance. It could be more daring, but there are signs. The current government (much as I hate them) does seem to appreciate rail investment as a stimulus better than predecessors.

The electrification scheme is massive, probably the biggest sign, and will benefit nationally.

In terms of re-openings, there has been Airdrie-Bathgate, the Borders is starting, there is the Chiltern to Oxford and of course its bigger brother, East West rail. Northern Hub is a tiny chord, but with huge impact especially combined with wires across TPE. Todmorden - again tiny curve but big impact. And how about Croxley, which I never thought I'd see!

London Overground is a complete refresh, and is changing how people perceive London, opportunities for employment & consumption, and overall expanding and redefining its core.

The new stations fund is a smaller intervention too. As the Cotswolds doubling finishes, the route via Kemble was announced too (local MPs no doubt helped, but still strategically important).

Plenty more besides. Between wires, line speeds, signalling, new lines, new stations, Crossrail, Thameslink, HS2 and other projects - there is a huge range and scope of development at every level and type.

So I suppose whilst there isn't one cohesive, united renaissance 'drive' - we ostensibly do have a disparate one due to the sum of the parts.

 

[Greenback]

There has been a change in the mindset of many people. Rightly or wrongly, 30 years ago railways were seen as old fashioned and unglamorous. Today, as evidenced by the amount of TV interest in the subject, railways are, well, almost trendy!

Naturally, there will always be complaints/rants from commuters and other regular users, and perhaps 'Raiwlay Renaaissance' is a bit strong, but we do seem to be at a point where the future of the network is more secure than it has been for generations.

 

[telstarbox]

There's been an improvement in rolling stock too - all the slammers on SWT/Southern/SE have been replaced; older stock (eg HSTs, Class 158s) is refurbished periodically; trains have air conditioning, plug sockets and wi-fi; and trains and stations are better for disabled passengers although there is some way to go.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

The other thing with smartphones and tablets is that the quality of departure information, available in real-time, could only be dreamed about 20 years ago.
Being able to know that your selected train is running (and whether it is on time, or delayed) before you leave home must mean that occasional rail users are going to be somewhat more inclined to choose train over car than they would have been in times past.

Twenty years ago, local news bulletins would not forewarn you of disruption to train services unless there was a really major incident, and even then you wouldn't get information specific to the particular service you were intending to travel on. Often, the first you would know of delays to your service was when you were already at the station, having already parked the car and paid an exhorbitant sum for doing so!

Indeed, at some stations, you may already have purchased a ticket and be on the platform before realising there was going to de a delay. Have that happen more than once and it's bound to make you favour the car and not 'risk' going by train. Having access to the quality of information we have in 2013 is bound to change the way people travel, possibly drawing in people who would never have considered 'slumming it' on the train (as one smug car-owner I know would phrase it).

It's not just on National Rail that this quality of departure information is becoming widely available. In my local area, buses have now been fitted with trackers and you can, by scanning a QR code for any particular stop(s), get real-time information on departures, and it certainly inclines me to use the bus for short hops into town. I live 3mins walk from my local stop, and the real-time information can count down from as much as 15mins before the bus arrives. So, in the recent snowy weather, I could leave the house knowing the bus was 5mins away, keeping the amount of time stood freezing my backside off to an absolute minimum!

 

[cle]

The other thing with smartphones and tablets is that the quality of departure information, available in real-time, could only be dreamed about 20 years ago.
Being able to know that your selected train is running (and whether it is on time, or delayed) before you leave home must mean that occasional rail users are going to be somewhat more inclined to choose train over car than they would have been in times past.

Twenty years ago, local news bulletins would not forewarn you of disruption to train services unless there was a really major incident, and even then you wouldn't get information specific to the particular service you were intending to travel on. Often, the first you would know of delays to your service was when you were already at the station, having already parked the car and paid an exhorbitant sum for doing so!

Indeed, at some stations, you may already have purchased a ticket and be on the platform before realising there was going to de a delay. Have that happen more than once and it's bound to make you favour the car and not 'risk' going by train. Having access to the quality of information we have in 2013 is bound to change the way people travel, possibly drawing in people who would never have considered 'slumming it' on the train (as one smug car-owner I know would phrase it).

It's not just on National Rail that this quality of departure information is becoming widely available. In my local area, buses have now been fitted with trackers and you can, by scanning a QR code for any particular stop(s), get real-time information on departures, and it certainly inclines me to use the bus for short hops into town. I live 3mins walk from my local stop, and the real-time information can count down from as much as 15mins before the bus arrives. So, in the recent snowy weather, I could leave the house knowing the bus was 5mins away, keeping the amount of time stood freezing my backside off to an absolute minimum!

See also: clockface timetabling.

 

[Yew]

For a true rennaisance, a fleet of clean, modern looking trains with plug sockets and WiFi would be needed. Fortunately we seem to be heading somewhere close to there.

 

[tbtc]

Perhaps it's a short term bubble that will burst

This is the bit that worries me - what happens when things start to go backwards (and when passenger numbers start to fall, so will Government interest and Government subsidies). Every debate seems to be on the assumption that we'll need every longer trains, even more routes etc.

The railways are a bit like top level football - both started seeing rising numbers from the mid'80s, both have seen subsequent increases credited to changes in ownership (the creating of the Premier League/ Premiership in football, Privatisation on the railways), both are being run as ever expanding worlds where there's no end to the money-train.

If the railway demand starts to tail off then I hope we've got sufficient things built in the good years and didn't waste a massive boom period without investing properly.

 

[Greenback]

I can't see demand falling in the future, unless something totally unforeseen and cataclysmic happens to the economy. There may well be a blip along the way, and the rate of growth may fall, but rail usage has been on the increase for quite a while now.

The Ham's reasons in post 2 seem spot on to me, and this is the basis for my optimism - young people in particular seem far more pro rail than for many years, and this bodes well for the future.

 

[DXMachina]

Economics is starting to make sense too.

For example, trips between two London transport stations in the same pricing zone cost very little for what can be a decent distance - Watford to Uxbridge via HoTH for instance takes no longer than the car and costs about the same as the petrol used. Factor in depreciation and servicing (I ignore road tax and insurance as they're standing costs) and its probably cheaper as well as more convenient.

 

[fgwrich]

I cannot see that very much at all on the current railway. If anything, the modern privatised railway is even less reponsive to change than BR was due to excessive micro-management from the DfT and short-term thinking from the train operators brought on by the awarding of short franchises that offer very little incentive to do anything more than maintain the status quo for as long as their tenure lasts.

Which was to be my main point in this thread anyway, just to excuse myself of any accusations of stoking the BR/Privatisation debate : In terms of passenger demand, yes the railways are experiencing a renaissance, but damned if the railway is actually going to respond to it in any sort of a timely manner...

While in part i agree with you, i would also slightly disagree in the process. See for example, First Great Westerns work in the Devon & Cornwall Rail Partnership and the resulting dramatic increase in passenger numbers on branch lines such as the Barnstaple Branch & the resulting infrastructure upgrades to other branches in the process. Another example i would say is the Falmouth Branch where we know that the passenger numbers were already increasing - previously worked by a single Class 150 - working with Network Rail to include in the Penryn passing loop and it's gone from a single 150 to 2 150s working to a 1/2 Hourly frequency. So in short, Upgrade the timetable, upgrade the quality of the service with rolling stock improvements and reliability + Healthy promotion from the TOC & Railway improvements, better infrastructure & signalling allowing for more services from Network Rail = Passenger Increase.

Quoted from Wikipedia.

Passenger volume

The majority of passengers travel between Truro and the three stations in Falmouth, the busiest of which is Falmouth Town although passenger numbers at Falmouth Docks increased faster. Comparing the year from April 2008 to that which started in April 2002, passenger numbers at the Docks station increased by 214% while those at the Town station increased by 38% and at Penmere increased by 42%. Since the doubling of train frequency the increases have been greater still. For example between the years starting 2002 and 2010 Penryn's passenger count rose by 247%, Penmere by 126% and Falmouth Docks by 266%. Falmouth Town has increased further by 109%. Even Perranwell (where the extra trains do not always stop) has increased by a healthy 93%

So i would actually put part of the renaissance down to the TOC, Area - Ebbw Vale & Cardiff Valleys shows what can be done with the right mindset for the right area, as well as what's already been said - particularly in Modern Railways.

 

[chuckles1066]

I think that it is down to a mixture of reasons, including but not limited to:

• trains are reliable
• trains are frequent
• travel by train can be as you need it without large upfront costs
• road travel is unreliable (roadworks, accidents, city centres, etc)
• Public transport is being encouraged by government (planning policy, tax incentives, etc.)

Are you sure you're not generalising?

When your local station is treated to a single train per hour, which frequently turns up shortformed, that's neither reliable or frequent.

As for your last point, public transport is NOT encouraged by Government policy and shame on you for believing everything you're told.

Trust me. I've got a nice bridge I can sell you if you're interested?

Oh, the Government claim to encourage motorists out of their cars by taxing them to the hilt but do diddly-squat about providing a viable alternative.

It guarantees them tax revenue, you see?

 

[Gwenllian2001]

So i would actually put part of the renaissance down to the TOC, Area - Ebbw Vale & Cardiff Valleys shows what can be done with the right mindset for the right area, as well as what's already been said - particularly in Modern Railways.

The re-opening of the Ebbw Vale Line had nothing to do with the TOC. It was a joint project between the Local Authority with, If I rightly recall, some EU input.

 

[dcsprior]

For some of the reasons stated, yes, but often the move to rail for many to due to circumstance, for example, commuting into London.

Yes, I would expect that the average commuting distance has increased over the years.

There's something to be said also for the rise and rise of smartphones and tablets. It's become a lot easier to pass the time on a long train journey than it used to in a way that you can't do when driving as you need to concentrate on the road.

The ability to get work done on a train definitely helps rail win market-share from air travel for longer journeys, and from the car for shorter ones.

Personally, its one of the main reasons I opt for rail rather than air travel for my weekly "commute" from Edinburgh-London (door-to-door journey time is about 5:05 vs 3:50 southbound - but when looking at "lost" time, the balance is the other way round)

I can't see demand falling in the future, unless something totally unforeseen and cataclysmic happens to the economy. There may well be a blip along the way, and the rate of growth may fall, but rail usage has been on the increase for quite a while now.

One thing that could change it is if there's a push towards more home-working, particularly where public transport doesn't have the capacity to cope comfortably with existing demand. I read this recently which seems to suggest this is being considered - key part below.

A report by Tory London Assembly members urges Mayor Boris Johnson to adopt their proposals because there is little financial incentive for passengers with a travelcard to use it for less than its entire duration.

The report said that if a travelcard was available that was valid for any three days in a week, it would make part-time work more affordable and people would be encouraged to work more from home. The report said existing Oyster card technology could be adapted and called for Transport for London to appoint a full-time “home-working officer” to drive plans across the network.

 

[Greenback]

One thing that could change it is if there's a push towards more home-working, particularly where public transport doesn't have the capacity to cope comfortably with existing demand.

It has often been mentioned that working from home and video conferencing would reduce the need to travel, but we are yet to see that reflected in the figures.

I also happened across a discussion about working from home (along with dressing down in the office) on the goggle box a couple of weeks ago, and it seems that some companies at least are becoming more concerned about home working.

In any case, even if working at home continues to increase, I think that any effect on travel patterns is likely to be offset by other factors.

It's a good point about public transport having to keep up with demand. Overcrowded buses and trains will be seen as far less attractive than the car where people have a choice.

 

[notadriver]

Are the railways competing against cars or coaches for long distance travel and how are they doing in they area?

The Oxford Tube and X90 Oxford to London services are frequent and seem busy. Are they more popular than the train? Kings Ferry offer a commuter coach service from the Medway Towns into London. Is it a decent alternative and is it ever as quick as or even faster than the train ? Stagecoach Gold on Scotland offer a luxury service between Glasgow and Inverness with a very similar journey time to the train and at far less cost.

 

[Buttsy]

Are the railways competing against cars or coaches for long distance travel and how are they doing in they area?

The Oxford Tube and X90 Oxford to London services are frequent and seem busy. Are they more popular than the train? Kings Ferry offer a commuter coach service from the Medway Towns into London. Is it a decent alternative and is it ever as quick as or even faster than the train ? Stagecoach Gold on Scotland offer a luxury service between Glasgow and Inverness with a very similar journey time to the train and at far less cost.

The train in the morning to London that I catch is reasonably full at Oxford. Certainly in teh off peak FGW have some decent advance deals. £5 single to London.

I think that the coach from Oxford is used a lot as there is a Park & Ride car park (was free at one point) in easy reach of most of the North & West outlying villages which makes it an easier choice for commuters. It will be interesting to see how the Water Eaton P&R station does once the Marylebone service starts.

Also, there is a perception of quality and enviroment:
Coach - cramped, belted in with one small toilet, view of passing traffic, slower.
Train - free to move, buy snacks & drinks, bigger toilets, better views, quicker.

I appreciate that the perception may not be the reality, but in most people's eyes, perception is truth

From Oxford I think all 3 operators (Tube, X90 & FGW) are happy with their market share, Chiltern becoming involved is more likely to hit the coah companies rather more than FGW, as FGW can offer a quicker timing into the same part of London, so can charge a slight premium for that compared to the expected Chiltern service/fares.

 

[DeeGee]

I think that I'm a reasonably average sort of bloke, even though I live in a notoriously badly served part of the country as far as railways are concerned.

For journeys of any decent length, involving just me, I'll always where possible prefer the train over driving. There are economic arguments in favour with Advance tickets, but even when I've had to buy a walk-up there have been many times when I've preferred rail over roads.

The truth is rail is physically less challenging than driving - I can sit comfortably, sleep if I want, switch off if I want, do something relaxing like reading a book. I can get up and walk around whenever I want, go to the toilet as I need to, and given that I travel for leisure and have a physically challenging hobby, that's ideal for me.

It also gives me the opportunity to do other stuff while travelling, whereas a long drive is time wasted. There's a bit of faffing about at the beginning and end of the journey, but that's a small price to pay for the benefits.

 

[yorksrob]

I read this recently which seems to suggest this is being considered - key part below.

Isn't this just a version of the carnet ticket - which I think should be available for all commuter routes.

 

[fgwrich]

The re-opening of the Ebbw Vale Line had nothing to do with the TOC. It was a joint project between the Local Authority with, If I rightly recall, some EU input.

I know, which is why i said or tried to say that Local Area input + NR or in the case of Penryn Local Area Input (C.C.C) + Network Rail + FGW / TOC input can bring a whole host of improvements.

 

[Beveridges]

There's something to be said also for the rise and rise of smartphones and tablets. It's become a lot easier to pass the time on a long train journey than it used to in a way that you can't do when driving as you need to concentrate on the road.

Thats a good point - on the roads, all the time you spend driving is "wasted time" - while on the trains, you see people doing something more productive or pleasurable with that time. Most people are reading books, newspapers, using their laptop or mobile phones. Certainly makes rail travel a lot more attractive than road for really long distance journeys. That is provided the train is not overcrowded.

 

[RichmondCommu]

As suggested by the OP, freight has really struggled to keep up with the growth that TOC's have seen. Whilst Daventry has been a big success, many other freight terminals see little or no use. Many freight services run on a trial basis but quickly disappear and I would be surprised if the Colas trial of supermarket products into central London becomes permanent. In many cases the distances involved are too short to make money when it comes to intermodal traffic. And the channel tunnel has been a huge disappointment in terms of freight.

 

[trainophile]

It's not just real time journey information that technology has massively improved, but also the fact that it's so easy to plan your journey online now, and even buy your tickets that way, rather than have to queue up at a ticket office and be embarrassed to hold people up finding out what your options are, given the notoriously complicated timetabling and pricing systems.

I know this won't go down well with ticket office staff, but online booking engines have made planning a journey a doddle nowadays, and I can't imagine ever going back to doing it the old fashioned way.