'Tis true that some of the CP5 schemes came as a bit of a surprise, particularly Oxford - Bletchley.
The reasons this is low down the list are:
It has one train an hour
Outside the peak, these trains are 4 car, and in my experience empty. The cash value of fuel saving by converting is not great. The additional cost of maintenance compared to electric is not that great either for a relatively small fleet.
Southern has no spare trains - and won't have even when the new 377s arrive and the 377/5s come back. These are generally earmarked for train lengthening on the metro and WLL services. Don't forget the 456s head west.
So electrification means buying a whole fleet of electric trains to replace the diesels.
Also electrification down to Uckfield isn't necessarily cheap, either 3R or OLE.
So this is an awful lot of cash to spend on a line for relatively small benefit. There are far, far better candidates. Valley Lines (announcement soon I gather), Chiltern (as part of next franchise), Oxford - Worcester via Bham Snow Hill, Bristol-Derby, Sheffield - Doncaster/ Leeds, even Felixstowe - Nuneaton will have a better case.
There have been no approaches to NR from TSGN bidders (to date) about electrifying the line (or Marshlink for that matter), in partnership or otherwise. Although I should caveat that by saying if NR had been approached, I couldn't possibly say that on this forum!
As has been said before, the cheapest way to resolve the supply / demand imbalance on that line is to equalise season ticket prices with the lines immediately east and west of it. Accepting that may not be popular.
The reasons this is low down the list are:
It has one train an hour
Outside the peak, these trains are 4 car, and in my experience empty. The cash value of fuel saving by converting is not great. The additional cost of maintenance compared to electric is not that great either for a relatively small fleet.
Southern has no spare trains - and won't have even when the new 377s arrive and the 377/5s come back. These are generally earmarked for train lengthening on the metro and WLL services. Don't forget the 456s head west.
So electrification means buying a whole fleet of electric trains to replace the diesels.
Also electrification down to Uckfield isn't necessarily cheap, either 3R or OLE.
So this is an awful lot of cash to spend on a line for relatively small benefit. There are far, far better candidates. Valley Lines (announcement soon I gather), Chiltern (as part of next franchise), Oxford - Worcester via Bham Snow Hill, Bristol-Derby, Sheffield - Doncaster/ Leeds, even Felixstowe - Nuneaton will have a better case.
There have been no approaches to NR from TSGN bidders (to date) about electrifying the line (or Marshlink for that matter), in partnership or otherwise. Although I should caveat that by saying if NR had been approached, I couldn't possibly say that on this forum!
As has been said before, the cheapest way to resolve the supply / demand imbalance on that line is to equalise season ticket prices with the lines immediately east and west of it. Accepting that may not be popular.
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