Electrification west of Newbury

[gwr4090]

According to BBC news today, the government has asked Network Rail to examine several options for extension of GWML electrification west of Newbury:
(1) to Bedwyn
(2) to Westbury
(3) to Bathampton Jc and Thingley Jc to provide a diversionary route to Bristol, and also to Merehead for the stone traffic.

(1) would seem to be relatively straightforward and would allow the existing Paddington-Bedwyn service pattern to be maintained rather than arbitrarily truncating it at Newbury.

David

 

[Oliver]

According to BBC news today, the government has asked Network Rail to examine several options for extension of GWML electrification west of Newbury:
(1) to Bedwyn
(2) to Westbury
(3) to Bathampton Jc and Thingley Jc to provide a diversionary route to Bristol, and also to Merehead for the stone traffic.

(1) would seem to be relatively straightforward and would allow the existing Paddington-Bedwyn service pattern to be maintained rather than arbitrarily truncating it at Newbury.

David

But not to Cogload....shame.

 

[Eagle]

But not to Cogload....shame.

That presupposes Bristol to Taunton (and/or to Exeter etc.) being electrified, which is far from certain.

 

[bailey65]

You will probably find over time once a particular route has been electrified the government will look at the possibility of adding to that in the following rail plan.

 

[Xavi]

That presupposes Bristol to Taunton (and/or to Exeter etc.) being electrified, which is far from certain.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, there will be gradual electrification westwards, it may take 20 years to get to Plymouth, or it may take 40, but it looks as though the first extra step may come sooner than expected. Once you get going in big volumes with electrification it becomes more and more viable as unit costs fall in real terms and the business case improves to run EMUs over a whole route rather than a mixed fleet.

My reckoning is that the DfT is belatedly realising that a few more wires and a bit less IEP bi-mode makes a lot of sense. But here's their way of wriggling out... New Thames Valley 125 mph EMU fleet (strong noises from Informed Sources) extends to operate all stopping services over route to Westbury and IEP order reconfigured to give 9 car bi-modes to operate through to Devon & Cornwall. Then no HST life extension; they may be gone sooner than everyone had expected.

 

[TheWalrus]

1) Puts us back to square 1, I do not understand why they would want Bedwyn as a terminal point!
2) makes more sense, have an EMU (eg a desiro) do London-Westbury rather than London-Newbury, it's a step in the right direction. The big problem I see here is what about Castle Cary?
3) I can't see it going this far. I doubt there is a business case for Newbury-Bedwyn/Westbury, unless you go further west.

 

[PhilipW]

Extending the wires westward from Newbury is fine by me, but I would still contend that extending the wires from Temple Meads to Weston-Super-Mare should be the logical first step as a lot of bi-modes could then be replaced by electrics (as argued in more detail in another thread).


Correction; Yes I did mean Weston. I typed Bristol in by mistake

 

[jimm]

Extending the wires westward from Newbury is fine by me, but I would still contend that extending the wires from Temple Meads to Bristol should be the logical first step as a lot of bi-modes could then be replaced by electrics (as argued in more detail in another thread).

And how would you go about extending the wires from Temple Meads to Bristol? Do you mean Weston-super-Mare? Assuming you do, I would have to question that "a lot" of bi-modes would be replaced. Outside the peaks precious few London trains extend to/from Weston, suggesting several that do run in the peaks are in fact being used to provide commuting capacity to/from Bristol (which might be better provided by a Bristol 'metro' operation) rather than handle long-distance demand from Weston and the intermediate stations. With the decision to electrify to Swansea, the bulk of bi-mode operation was always going to be concentrated on Oxford/Cotswold and Swindon/Gloucester/Cheltenham services anyway.

The big problem I see here is what about Castle Cary?

why is this a big problem? It will continue to be served by West Country services, same as now.

 

[cle]

With the mild exception of Westbury, the demand west of Newbury picks up at Taunton.

I've read that once all wired, four-tracked, Reading-sorted, Bridgewater 125-ed etc... that it could be quicker to get to Taunton via BPW than today. Could that be true?

Although of course it'd required wires below Taunton to make much difference. And mixing Devon/Cornwall traffic with Bristol traffic might not be the best idea.

But it could make good use of those 4tph one day...

 

[Tiny Tim]

1) I do not understand why they would want Bedwyn as a terminal point.

Great Bedwyn may appear to be in the middle of nowhere, but it's well-used by commuters. It was always an arbitrary place to stop London commuter services, but after Beeching there weren't a lot of alternatives. As a result, Bedwyn has become much busier than one might expect of a tiny village station. Electrification has to end somewhere, wherever they choose will be arguably wrong. In a perfect world extending the wires to Bathampton to create an alternative electrified route to Bristol would make sense, but it's a lot of money to spend on something that isn't strictly necessary. The likely compromise, I suspect, will be Westbury.

 

[HSTEd]

Won't there already be two electrified routes to Bristol? (via Bath and Bristol Parkway?)

 

[sprinterguy]

Won't there already be two electrified routes to Bristol? (via Bath and Bristol Parkway?)

Bath is more of a "loop" off the South Wales main line at the Bristol end of the route though. The GWML is still a single main line from Paddington to Wootton Bassett through Reading, Didcot and Swindon.

 

[TheWalrus]

Extending the wires westward from Newbury is fine by me, but I would still contend that extending the wires from Temple Meads to Bristol should be the logical first step as a lot of bi-modes could then be replaced by electrics (as argued in more detail in another thread).

And how would you go about extending the wires from Temple Meads to Bristol? Do you mean Weston-super-Mare? Assuming you do, I would have to question that "a lot" of bi-modes would be replaced. Outside the peaks precious few London trains extend to/from Weston, suggesting several that do run in the peaks are in fact being used to provide commuting capacity to/from Bristol (which might be better provided by a Bristol 'metro' operation) rather than handle long-distance demand from Weston and the intermediate stations. With the decision to electrify to Swansea, the bulk of bi-mode operation was always going to be concentrated on Oxford/Cotswold and Swindon/Gloucester/Cheltenham services anyway.

The big problem I see here is what about Castle Cary?

why is this a big problem? It will continue to be served by West Country services, same as now.

Castle cary is almost as well used as Hungerford, which has an hourly service to from London, and rapidly increased in 2006-07, leading to over 51% growth in 5 years. It continued to see steadily rising passenger numbers through the recession. It is well used by travellers both westbound and eastbound, and is an interchange for Weymouth. Therefore I strongly feel that Castle Cary - like Westbury and Pewsey - are underserved and overlooked as I believe these stations have a lot more potential for passenger footfall, revenue and growth, to a much greater extent than some of the stations further east which are currently served more frequently. This supports my case for an hourly semi-fast London-Exeter which would serve Castle Cary much better than today, for the greater good of the local economy and community, and also the train operator.

 

[Zoe]

This supports my case for an hourly semi-fast London-Exeter which would serve Castle Cary much better than today, for the greater good of the local economy and community, and also the train operator.

If an hourly semi-fast service from Paddington to Exeter is introduced then one concern is that Taunton could end up like Nuneaton on the West Coast so that journey times to Exeter can be accelerated by removing Taunton calls on fast services in the same way removing Nuneaton calls allowed Liverpool services to be accelerated.

 

[Kali]

I've read that once all wired, four-tracked, Reading-sorted, Bridgewater 125-ed etc... that it could be quicker to get to Taunton via BPW than today. Could that be true?

Although of course it'd required wires below Taunton to make much difference. And mixing Devon/Cornwall traffic with Bristol traffic might not be the best idea.

But it could make good use of those 4tph one day...

We have been arguing about all of that in the thread about HSTs. Some seem to think so, some of us don't, but you might be interested in reading that.

I think there's some London commuter traffic from WSM to explain the service pattern, but I've no source for that & I'm not particularily sure of it.

Westbury seems a bit of an arbitrary "well that's a reasonably big place to stop" location - either option 1 to retain existing service or option 3 seems the sensible choice if you're going to do it at all.

Edit: the truly fast Exeter services already miss Taunton out...

 

[Zoe]

the truly fast Exeter services already miss Taunton out...

They do but these are just two down and one up service per day (and there are alternative services to Taunton in both hours). I'm not quite sure why there is only one up service, before 2006 there were two. I'm also not sure why the down services stop at Newton Abbot as they never used to before 2006 and the up service does not. The concern is that with an hourly semi-fast Exeter service then all off peak fast Exeter services would call at Reading and Exeter only.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Westbury seems a bit of an arbitrary "well that's a reasonably big place to stop" location - either option 1 to retain existing service or option 3 seems the sensible choice if you're going to do it at all.

Based on the current service pattern maybe but then so is Exeter and that doesn't stop suggestions that if west of Newbury/Bristol is electrified then the wires should end at Exeter. Service patterns can be changed to get the most benefit from the electrification.

 

[Kali]

I have never left Westbury station - how useful is it as a local station rather than an interchange? is it worth trying to encourage Westbury's growth as a dormitary town? ( in the way someone mentioned Bedwyn growing ). Someone who's more interested could perhaps look at London-Slough-Reading-all stops to Westbury diagrams for 110/125 mph stock?

Come to think of it, options for 125mph capable commuter stock?

Taunton has a vast catchment area - that includes me and I'm on the south coast, although any improvement at all in the WoE line would mean I wouldn't even think of going up there. Removing the choice would be a bit of a worry ( and silly ).

 

[Zoe]

Taunton has a vast catchment area - that includes me and I'm on the south coast, although any improvement at all in the WoE line would mean I wouldn't even think of going up there. Removing the choice would be a bit of a worry ( and silly ).

If you are referring to the Waterloo route, what improvements would you want? It has an hourly service to London. Even if there was an hourly fast service from Exeter to Paddington calling only at Reading, there would still be the option of going to Taunton and using the hourly semi-fast Exeter to Paddington service.

 

[Xavi]

I have never left Westbury station - how useful is it as a local station rather than an interchange? is it worth trying to encourage Westbury's growth as a dormitary town? ( in the way someone mentioned Bedwyn growing ). Someone who's more interested could perhaps look at London-Slough-Reading-all stops to Westbury diagrams for 110/125 mph stock?

Come to think of it, options for 125mph capable commuter stock?

Taunton has a vast catchment area - that includes me and I'm on the south coast, although any improvement at all in the WoE line would mean I wouldn't even think of going up there. Removing the choice would be a bit of a worry ( and silly ).

Agree re 125mph EMU stock, see this post earlier:

My reckoning is that the DfT is belatedly realising that a few more wires and a bit less IEP bi-mode makes a lot of sense. But here's their way of wriggling out... New Thames Valley 125 mph EMU fleet (strong noises from Informed Sources) extends to operate all stopping services over route to Westbury and IEP order reconfigured to give 9 car bi-modes to operate through to Devon & Cornwall. Then no HST life extension; they may be gone sooner than everyone had expected.

To add:

Also invaluable as electric diversion route for Bristol and South Wales. The semi-fasts to Westbury would probably then extend through Trowbridge to Bath and Bristol providing extra capacity from Bristol to Bath which Network Rail has been struggling to accommodate without providig a new turn back facility at Bathampton.

 

[Kali]

If you are referring to the Waterloo route, what improvements would you want? It has an hourly service to London. Even if there was an hourly fast service from Exeter to Paddington calling only at Reading, there would still be the option of going to Taunton and using the hourly semi-fast Exeter to Paddington service.

There were three reasons to take GW services from Taunton - comfort, timetable and journey time. FGW's refurb I find less comfortable than SWT's lack of legroom, the recent 1tph change removed the timetable issue, so now it's just journey time which is marginal anyway counting getting there.

However I'm on the extreme edge of anything you might call a catchement area so I don't really have a "fast" from anywhere anyway - I'd not like to see that rather large area further north lose *all* their fasts.

Xavi: I noticed that which is what started me thinking. Presumably the main thrust of that extra order would be to give the Hitachi plant more work... I asked about what the situation is at Westbury because option 2 seems more of a political decision regarding the future of Westbury than filling an operational need.

 

[jimm]

Castle cary is almost as well used as Hungerford, which has an hourly service to from London, and rapidly increased in 2006-07, leading to over 51% growth in 5 years. It continued to see steadily rising passenger numbers through the recession. It is well used by travellers both westbound and eastbound, and is an interchange for Weymouth. Therefore I strongly feel that Castle Cary - like Westbury and Pewsey - are underserved and overlooked as I believe these stations have a lot more potential for passenger footfall, revenue and growth, to a much greater extent than some of the stations further east which are currently served more frequently. This supports my case for an hourly semi-fast London-Exeter which would serve Castle Cary much better than today, for the greater good of the local economy and community, and also the train operator.

None of which gets us away from the fact that all this has happened on the back of it being served by West Country services. And how many people actually travel to Weymouth by changing there? An hourly semi-fast might serve it better but at what cost - it may not be for the greater good of the train operator's balance sheet when you take into account acquiring extra rolling stock, hiring extra train crews, paying track access fees and other operating costs. Use of most other stations has continued to rise through the recession, so there's nothing exceptional about that.

And how much of the footfall figure at Castle Cary is generated over the course of a few days each summer when the Glastonbury Festival is taking place? In 2006-7, when no festival was held in the summer of 2006, the figure dropped by 20,000 plus and with the greater emphasis on people using rail to get to the event in recent years, I would expect that figure to be rather bigger now.

 

[PhilipW]

And how would you go about extending the wires from Temple Meads to Bristol? Do you mean Weston-super-Mare? Assuming you do, I would have to question that "a lot" of bi-modes would be replaced. Outside the peaks precious few London trains extend to/from Weston, suggesting several that do run in the peaks are in fact being used to provide commuting capacity to/from Bristol (which might be better provided by a Bristol 'metro' operation) rather than handle long-distance demand from Weston and the intermediate stations. With the decision to electrify to Swansea, the bulk of bi-mode operation was always going to be concentrated on Oxford/Cotswold and Swindon/Gloucester/Cheltenham services anyway.

Yes I did mean Weston-super-Mare.

I acknowledge that most through services from Weston are in the morning peaks and most through services to Weston are in the evening peaks, probably using up 4 or 5 sets at the moment.

If Bi-Modes are going to be used on these services, then these same Bi-modes will then (probably) be used shuttling between Temple Meads and Paddington for the rest of the day. So by electrifying these extra 20 or so miles and switching to all electric could have quite a saving, both in capital and running costs

 

[jimm]

Yes I did mean Weston-super-Mare.

I acknowledge that most through services from Weston are in the morning peaks and most through services to Weston are in the evening peaks, probably using up 4 or 5 sets at the moment.

If Bi-Modes are going to be used on these services, then these same Bi-modes will then (probably) be used shuttling between Temple Meads and Paddington for the rest of the day. So by electrifying these extra 20 or so miles and switching to all electric could have quite a saving, both in capital and running costs

But that assumes you retain the current level of through working, which, as I say, appears to have a lot to do providing capacity to handle short-distance commuting, rather than massive demand for travel to and from London.

If there is an influx of Turbos post-Thames Valley electrification, allowing a stepping up of local services around Bristol, which recent growth surely justifies, then HSTs filling in as stoppers could be replaced by something more appropriate, also operating at higher frequencies, with a few Weston IEPs at times of the day when demand to/from places east of Bristol is highest.

And several of the current GW HSTs calling at Weston run through to and from Taunton - and beyond - so if this pattern continues, trains with diesel power of some sort would still be required on these duties, rather than straight electrics.

Until the XC line north of Bristol is wired and makes a wholesale conversion of local services radiating from Bristol, including Weston, to electric multiple unit working much more attractive, I just don't see wiring those 20 miles being cost-effective, same as some people posting here say Gloucester and Cheltenham should be wired, even when the only things that could use electric power there would be the London services - until the XC route is wired and you can then also convert GW services on the Worcester-Gloucester-Bristol axis to emus, along with freight between South Wales and the West Midlands.

 

[TheWalrus]

Castle cary is almost as well used as Hungerford, which has an hourly service to from London, and rapidly increased in 2006-07, leading to over 51% growth in 5 years. It continued to see steadily rising passenger numbers through the recession. It is well used by travellers both westbound and eastbound, and is an interchange for Weymouth. Therefore I strongly feel that Castle Cary - like Westbury and Pewsey - are underserved and overlooked as I believe these stations have a lot more potential for passenger footfall, revenue and growth, to a much greater extent than some of the stations further east which are currently served more frequently. This supports my case for an hourly semi-fast London-Exeter which would serve Castle Cary much better than today, for the greater good of the local economy and community, and also the train operator.

None of which gets us away from the fact that all this has happened on the back of it being served by West Country services. And how many people actually travel to Weymouth by changing there? An hourly semi-fast might serve it better but at what cost - it may not be for the greater good of the train operator's balance sheet when you take into account acquiring extra rolling stock, hiring extra train crews, paying track access fees and other operating costs. Use of most other stations has continued to rise through the recession, so there's nothing exceptional about that.

And how much of the footfall figure at Castle Cary is generated over the course of a few days each summer when the Glastonbury Festival is taking place? In 2006-7, when no festival was held in the summer of 2006, the figure dropped by 20,000 plus and with the greater emphasis on people using rail to get to the event in recent years, I would expect that figure to be rather bigger now.

I don't know as yet how many change for Weymouth there but with the proposal to increase the frequency of these, it could increase the credibility of this as a journey option.
The Exeter semi-fast would cost a lot more to run but it'd be another profitable service they'd have. I can't imagine they make a lot running practically empty Newbury-Bedwyn and back!
Other stations on the line saw negative growth around 08-09 except Westbury.
I have looked at Glastonbury and that it didn't happen in 2006. Even taking away say 20000, it's still a reasonably large figure in comparison to other stations.

 

[PhilipW]

Jim, fair point but .........

Has anyone told Weston residents (and their MP) that it might not be sensible to continue with the 8 through London services per day. I expect not and I expect a loud outcry when that penny drops.

Currently in the down direction there are 8 through services (4 terminating at Weston, 2 at Taunton, 1 at Exeter and 1 at Paignton).

Far from cutting down services, I would expect the argument to go that the "sparks" effect will bring greater usage and a plea for a regular hourly service. Extending 1 of the 4 TM services each hour might only require 1 set (assuming it can get from TM to Weston and back in 60 mins - may just be possible).

 

[tbtc]

If you are going to fund fifty miles of additional double track electrification int he UK (on top of the CP5 commitments) then Newbury to Westbury wouldn't be top of my list.

For example, the Warrington Central line would be about half the distance. Sheffield to Doncaster (plus Swinton to Moorthorpe) would be closer to thirty miles (same as Shrewsbury to Wolverhampton). Derby to Birmingham would be around forty.

I can't see Westbury as a priority, sorry.

 

[Xavi]

If you are going to fund fifty miles of additional double track electrification int he UK (on top of the CP5 commitments) then Newbury to Westbury wouldn't be top of my list.

For example, the Warrington Central line would be about half the distance. Sheffield to Doncaster (plus Swinton to Moorthorpe) would be closer to thirty miles (same as Shrewsbury to Wolverhampton). Derby to Birmingham would be around forty.

I can't see Westbury as a priority, sorry.

IF it happened it's not going to be CP5, it would follow other GW committed schemes in CP6 (same period as the routes you mention are likely to be wired) and the main purpose would not be serving the likes of Pewsey and Westbury (it would bring big benefits though) but justifying bi-mode IEP for all Devon & Cornwall traffic with gradual creeping electrification west in later years. And, very importantly, providing an alternate electric route from Bristol and South Wales.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Once you get to Exeter - then Exeter - Salisbury (OK Basingstoke for the pedanst) becomes extremely likely plus double tracking.

 

[Tiny Tim]

If you are going to fund fifty miles of additional double track electrification int he UK (on top of the CP5 commitments) then Newbury to Westbury wouldn't be top of my list.

For example, the Warrington Central line would be about half the distance. Sheffield to Doncaster (plus Swinton to Moorthorpe) would be closer to thirty miles (same as Shrewsbury to Wolverhampton). Derby to Birmingham would be around forty.

I can't see Westbury as a priority, sorry.

A very logical point. However, despite the obvious sense of this, there will be political pressure to take the wires past Great Bedwyn. Some users of this seemingly insignificant station are well-connected. Pewsey also has commuters with clout, the local media are already on the case. Whilst I agree totally with tbtc, I think that Westbury will be the limit of electrification for the foreseeable future.

 

[jimm]

I don't know as yet how many change for Weymouth there but with the proposal to increase the frequency of these, it could increase the credibility of this as a journey option.
The Exeter semi-fast would cost a lot more to run but it'd be another profitable service they'd have. I can't imagine they make a lot running practically empty Newbury-Bedwyn and back!
Other stations on the line saw negative growth around 08-09 except Westbury.
I have looked at Glastonbury and that it didn't happen in 2006. Even taking away say 20000, it's still a reasonably large figure in comparison to other stations.

And your evidence for such a service being profitable is what? FGW is already soaking up £200m a year in revenue support, according to Modern Railways, so I don't imagine DafT will be rushing to approve such a massive and costly increase in services as you suggest along the Berks & Hants line, which is not noted for the number of major metropolises lining the route. Where are all these people wanting to go to Weymouth coming from? in London you just go to Waterloo, from the North, Midlands and Thames Valley you use XC to Bournemouth and change and the FGW Weymouth services run through to/from Worcester/Gloucester/Bristol anyway. As regards the festival, that's effectively 10 per cent of the annual footfall at the station in the course of about six days, which rather distorts the overall figure, however you look at it.

Jim, fair point but .........

Has anyone told Weston residents (and their MP) that it might not be sensible to continue with the 8 through London services per day. I expect not and I expect a loud outcry when that penny drops.

Currently in the down direction there are 8 through services (4 terminating at Weston, 2 at Taunton, 1 at Exeter and 1 at Paignton).

Far from cutting down services, I would expect the argument to go that the "sparks" effect will bring greater usage and a plea for a regular hourly service. Extending 1 of the 4 TM services each hour might only require 1 set (assuming it can get from TM to Weston and back in 60 mins - may just be possible).

The MP and residents of Weston (population about 80,000) may make a fuss but Shrewsbury and Telford, with a combined population of 220,000 plus, have zero through London trains. When BR stopped loco changes on InterCities between electric and diesel at Wolverhampton and went over to 158s running through to and from Birmingham they said that was was where the overwhelming number of passengers from Shropshire were going. There was a great deal of fuss. Virgin then made a great play of reinstating through trains, but found that BR was right and ditched them again. W&S had a crack at it, but without being able to get a slice of the West Midlands-London revenue, due to the Virgin no-compete clause, they couldn't make it work.

I am sure a similarly hefty percentage of people using the Weston trains are only doing the run to and from Bristol. If BR or FGW thought there was sufficient demand to justify an hourly Weston service - or just more through trains between the peaks - they would have been running them long ago.

And FGW are no mugs when it comes to spotting opportunities they think will pay, that's why the service at Hanborough on the Cotswold Line has been beefed up since they replaced Thames Trains. Forty years ago it was a halt with one train a day into Oxford and one train back, on a par with the likes of Combe and Finstock. BR began the process of adding more stops and Thames continued it. Nowadays, pretty much everything that moves on the line calls there. It is effectively West Oxfordshire Parkway, serving the growing towns of Witney and Carterton, and work on a 191-space car park extension is imminent. If Weston was a similar honeypot, they would have noticed it and done something about it.