First win Intercity West Coast franchise

[tbtc]

Given that the average MP seems about as ignorant about UK Rail as the average facebook poster, I can't see any advantage in a Commons Debate.

It would be quite amusing. Embarrassingly amusing (like the Liverpool MP who were outraged that First were spending money on marketing their trains - HOW VERY DARE THEY!!111!!!!).

 

[HH]

The DfT may well be able to make the same decision again by following the correct procedure.

There are several possibilities here:

1. They re-run the selection process; this probably would have the same result, BUT they might need to ask First for a larger guarantee. Would this change First's appetite? IF it did VT might ALSO be asked for a larger guarantee. Would Mr Branson be so eager if he had to guarantee £300m rather than £20m? Whoever won would also claim compensation for the delayed start.

2. They re-run the bid. Would all bidders want to bid again? Who would pay for it? What would happen to the franchise after December until the now delayed new franchise started?

3. They re-run the pre-qual. Like 2 but worse.

On top of this they could disqualify VT due to them not following bidder guidelines concerning publicly discussing bids. Oh, and maybe First could get their lawyers out and have some real fun...

 

[eastdyke]

There are several possibilities here:

1. They re-run the selection process; this probably would have the same result, BUT they might need to ask First for a larger guarantee. Would this change First's appetite? IF it did VT might ALSO be asked for a larger guarantee. Would Mr Branson be so eager if he had to guarantee £300m rather than £20m? Whoever won would also claim compensation for the delayed start.

2. They re-run the bid. Would all bidders want to bid again? Who would pay for it? What would happen to the franchise after December until the now delayed new franchise started?

3. They re-run the pre-qual. Like 2 but worse.

On top of this they could disqualify VT due to them not following bidder guidelines concerning publicly discussing bids. Oh, and maybe First could get their lawyers out and have some real fun...

I don't know about any of that!

Let's just see if VTLtd are granted a Judicial Review first. And then win it. And then look at the judgement!

 

[mbonwick]

Quoted from WNXX forum;

There are three possible grounds on which to request a judicial review for such a contract. Only one is needed to lodge the complaint. Virgin's lawyer is lodging complaints on all three grounds. Read the ITT, read the DfTs procedures, then look at the scores awarded and draw your own conclusions. The Guardian is reporting that this will very likely throw all future franchise timetables out of the window. This will not be as straightforward as some think.

The grounds are;

Illegality

Irrationality

Procedural Impropriety


The Select Committee is also sitting in a few days and Tim O'Toole, Justine Greening (if She is still in the job) Richard Branson, and one would hope some DFT civil servants will be called as witnesses. Branson has already confirmed he will be flying back to give his evidence. Allegedly including reams of minutes from various meetings over the last 2-3 years with ministers and DFT officials.

We are in very interesting times.

Also, I heard that some of the franchise documents for ICWC weren't/aren't on the DfT website, yet those for Anglia, Greater Western etc are? Surely that's saying something....

 

[HH]

Let's just see if VTLtd are granted a Judicial Review first. And then win it. And then look at the judgement!

But there are only a very limited number of judgements possible. They cannot say, "Give the Franchise to Virgin", for example.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Also, I heard that some of the franchise documents for ICWC weren't/aren't on the DfT website, yet those for Anglia, Greater Western etc are? Surely that's saying something....

Always best to check your facts: http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/rail-passenger-franchise-intercity-west-coast/

 

[YorkshireRider]

Isn't the issue mainly around the size of the Bond should first default and hand back the keys? Seems a fair enough question to ask to me, what makes people think it will drag on for months if the review was granted. A few weeks seems more likley.

 

[Realfish]

I see that VT have updated their Media Room content.

Last week's disclosure of the services that they would be offerring has been clarified to confirm that some of the 390/3's would be operating in multiple to offer 12 coach services to Glasgow. Presumably they will use multiple working to make best use of line capacity, splitting (or alternatively merging) trains at Crewe and Preston.

http://mediaroom.virgintrains.co.uk/

 

[aylesbury]

Interesting how Virgin would do all the new services after December ,but have not done anything in 15yrs .First have some good ideas ,business class,more tables and better luggage racks,and de ponging the loos.The trains are badly in need of refurbishment and I think that First will do this .Lets face facts ,Virgin is a brand and Stagecoach provide the operating nous,many statements are made that Virgin can take the Pendo,s away but they cant.There has been a lot of hot air by Virgin and I think that the judge will throw the case out and then the signing of the franchise will take place and we can all get on with our lives.

 

[tbtc]

Isn't the issue mainly around the size of the Bond should first default and hand back the keys? Seems a fair enough question to ask to me, what makes people think it will drag on for months if the review was granted. A few weeks seems more likley.

Sounds more like spite (ensuring that First pay more) than any real chance that Virgin would actually win "their" lucrative franchise back

 

[mbonwick]

Always best to check your facts: http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/rail-passenger-franchise-intercity-west-coast/

Hence the use of "heard" and a question mark.....

 

[HH]

Isn't the issue mainly around the size of the Bond should first default and hand back the keys? Seems a fair enough question to ask to me, what makes people think it will drag on for months if the review was granted. A few weeks seems more likley.

That's only one of the parts of the one of the challenges from VT. If that is the only challenge that is upheld then you could be right, providing First are happy to put up the increased Bond, which may depend on the size - the court may order some independent quantification of risk here. I'd be surprised if it didn't end up several times the size of the current £190m.

 

[eastdyke]

But there are only a very limited number of judgements possible. They cannot say, "Give the Franchise to Virgin", for example.

...

'They cannot say, "Give the Franchise to Virgin", for example.' I think that I said that!!

So lets just wait to see if we get a Judicial Review and then a Judgement that (in the words of Jon Porter) deems the award:

Illegal - Irrational - or suffering from Procedural Impropriety

or indeed all of the above!!

 

[HH]

Hence the use of "heard" and a question mark.....

Which would be fine if you hadn't followed that up with, "Surely that's saying something...."

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

So lets just wait to see if we get a Judicial Review and then a Judgement that (in the words of Jon Porter) deems the award:

Illegal - Irrational - or suffering from Procedural Impropriety

or indeed all of the above!!

Agreed. But most of these mean a re-run or a "re-mark". I can't think of any other result, whatever the cause(s).

 

[150's are evil]

Just found a link on the twitter with all of the things that virgin claim they will do better than first ( whether this information is true or not yet I don't know. If anyone could verify this that would be great)http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/virgin-trains-responds-to-firstgroups-proposals-for-west-coast-168384506.html

 

[Realfish]

Just found a link on the twitter with all of the things that virgin claim they will do better than first ( whether this information is true or not yet I don't know. If anyone could verify this that would be great)http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/virgin-trains-responds-to-firstgroups-proposals-for-west-coast-168384506.html

That's the original VT release. See above for the updated one.

 

[WatcherZero]

On top of this they could disqualify VT due to them not following bidder guidelines concerning publicly discussing bids. Oh, and maybe First could get their lawyers out and have some real fun...

Doubtful, Virgin played it by the book and didnt release any details of their bid until the expiry of the cool off period, The Government announced the details of Firsts bid and First also were careful not to announce any details outside of the Governments press release over the same time period. It was also First that set the precedent for appealing a franchise award in the courts and its come back to bite them in the ass as they cant claim the moral high ground now, they are leaving it up to posters who dont know their First history to call sour grapes.

 

[Wath Yard]

Just found a link on the twitter with all of the things that virgin claim they will do better than first ( whether this information is true or not yet I don't know. If anyone could verify this that would be great)http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/virgin-trains-responds-to-firstgroups-proposals-for-west-coast-168384506.html

There are two possible answers to whether it is true or not:

1. It is produced by Virgin's PR department therefore it is spin
or if you are one of the 160,000 who signed the petition
2. It is produced by Virgin's PR department therefore it is true.

 

[Masbroughlad]

Might as well see the other failed bids now! Lol.

 

[Aictos]

Might as well see the other failed bids now! Lol.

Indeed I would like to see what SNCF and Abellio were offering in their bids

 

[Donny Dave]

That's the original VT release. See above for the updated one.

Nope, that is from today, Anyway .....

Trains / capacity

<snip>

Virgin would invest £385m in the fleet. We understand there are no contracts in place for the FirstGroup proposals.

Investment

FirstGroup: FirstGroup has said its investment package is worth £350m but there is little detail of how this is to be spent. To help customers and politicians understand the FirstGroup proposals, Virgin Rail Group has put 10 questions to Mr O'Toole, based on his recent comments to analysts and MPs.

Virgin: We are planning to invest nearly £800m in the franchise, including a number of other projects not listed above.


SOURCE Virgin Trains

First off, of course First will not have signed any contracts concerning the refurbishment of the Pendolinos. They haven't signed a contract to take over the WCML franchise yet thanks to Beardy throwing his toys out of the pram in spectacular fashion ....

Secondly, looking at the source, it's nothing but spin ....

 

[DynamicSpirit]

From http://mediaroom.virgintrains.co.uk/

FirstGroup: More capacity on services between Birmingham and Scotland.

Virgin: We would also provide more capacity on this route, but in addition we would offer direct services from the south Midlands via Birmingham. All services between Birmingham and Scotland would be operated by either six, nine, 11, or 12-car trains.

Interesting. What do they mean by 'South Midlands'? Does this imply they were planning, as someone speculated way back in this thread, to merge an hourly London-Birmingham and a Birmingham-Glasgow into a single service?

They also indicate that they were planning to speed up the direct London-Glasgow services via linespeed improvements, ie. without changing the stopping pattern.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
And more interestingly, from the same site

We would also double the frequency to Preston

There's an implied 'from London' there. If they did merge London-Birmingham and Birmingham-Glasgow, then that would by itself implicitly double the London-Preston frequency but without actually providing any extra trains (which would be inferior to First's proposal to actually run an extra hourly service London-Preston-(somewhere). Pure speculation, but is it plausible that's their intention? It would be consistent with the fact their proposals don't provide any net increase in numbers of actual trains.

 

[mbonwick]

Nope, that is from today, Anyway .....



First off, of course First will not have signed any contracts concerning the refurbishment of the Pendolinos. They haven't signed a contract to take over the WCML franchise yet thanks to Beardy throwing his toys out of the pram in spectacular fashion ....

Secondly, looking at the source, it's nothing but spin ....

From what I understand, Virgin had a firm quote from the manufacturers (we can build x vehicles for £y) whereas First only had "yes, we could build that if you wanted"

 

[Wath Yard]

From what I understand, Virgin had a firm quote from the manufacturers (we can build x vehicles for £y) whereas First only had "yes, we could build that if you wanted"

I think you have been taking what you have read on WNXX a bit too seriously. Companies do not calculate profit margins and premium payments to the DfT without knowing how much their new trains will cost. Perhaps Tim O'Toole just asked a spotter on the end of Doncaster station how much he thought trains might cost.

 

[HH]

Doubtful, Virgin played it by the book and didnt release any details of their bid until the expiry of the cool off period

Not true at all. Indeed other bidders have complained to DfT about Beardy's behaviour, before, during and after the bid.

 

[Donny Dave]

Not true at all. Indeed other bidders have complained to DfT about Beardy's behaviour, before, during and after the bid.

Perhaps that's why Bob Crow made a complete tit of himself on national TV about "plans to reduce staff and catering" before any such plans had been announced ....

 

[HH]

From What do they mean by 'South Midlands'? Does this imply they were planning, as someone speculated way back in this thread, to merge an hourly London-Birmingham and a Birmingham-Glasgow into a single service?

Since when did London become 'South Midlands? You're reading stuff that isn't there. Rugby or Coventry maybe. It's hard to see what benefit they offer over Brum though. Or maybe they start from Birmingham International...

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I think you have been taking what you have read on WNXX a bit too seriously. Companies do not calculate profit margins and premium payments to the DfT without knowing how much their new trains will cost. Perhaps Tim O'Toole just asked a spotter on the end of Doncaster station how much he thought trains might cost.

Agreed. There may be a technical difference; VT have a full quote, FG have a letter of intent; but in reality only the winning bidder's piece of paper matters anyway.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Perhaps that's why Bob Crow made a complete tit of himself on national TV about "plans to reduce staff and catering" before any such plans had been announced ....

No that suggests a leak emanating at DfT. Just not a very good leak.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Since when did London become 'South Midlands? You're reading stuff that isn't there. Rugby or Coventry maybe. It's hard to see what benefit they offer over Brum though. Or maybe they start from Birmingham International..

Ummm, I never said London did count as South Midlands. You're reading stuff into my post that isn't there My thinking was that if by 'South Midlands' they mean 'Coventry and Birmingham International' then merging a London-Birmingham and the Birmingham-Glasgow service would implicitly give 'South Midlands' a direct service to Glasgow (because London-Birmingham calls at Coventry and Birmingham International). It would also allow them to claim that they are doubling the London-Preston frequency since there'd be an hourly (rather slow so not that useful to London-Preston passengers) service via Birmingham.

That would all allow Virgin to make the claims that they have made, but without actually providing additional services.

 

[MK Tom]

'South Midlands' in the planning world means the area around MK, Northants down to north Bucks. Doubt that's what it's being used as here, but that is what the term refers to. Warwickshire is West Midlands.

 

[HH]

Ummm, I never said London did count as South Midlands. You're reading stuff into my post that isn't there My thinking was that if by 'South Midlands' they mean 'Coventry and Birmingham International' then merging a London-Birmingham and a Birmingham-Glasgow service would implicitly give 'South Midlands' a direct service to Glasgow. It would also allow them to claim that they are doubling the London-Preston frequency since there'd be an hourly (rather slow so not that useful to London-Preston passengers) service via Birmingham.

That would all allow Virgin to make the claims that they have made, but without actually providing additional services.

Well they could introduce a service that ran London-Brum-Glasgow, effectively turning 2 services into 1. Is the same RS efficient for both legs (doesn't seem like it should be)?

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

'South Midlands' in the planning world means the area around MK, Northants down to north Bucks. Doubt that's what it's being used as here, but that is what the term refers to. Warwickshire is West Midlands.

OK. Well that makes a London through connection seem more likely then. Not convinced it's a good idea though.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

'South Midlands' in the planning world means the area around MK, Northants down to north Bucks. Doubt that's what it's being used as here, but that is what the term refers to. Warwickshire is West Midlands.

OK, thanks. That could be what Virgin meant if they were planning to run a London-Birmingham-Glasgow service that happened to call at Milton Keynes.