First win Intercity West Coast franchise

[YorkshireRider]

Because it is projected that by then the net profit to First will be greater than the cost of the penalty?

It's not difficult maths.

So it is projected the net profit will never drop below -£190m? Well some projections disagree with that, as the post from watcher zero points out. As the radio 4 interviewer with the First Group MD points out "heads you win, tails the taxpayer loses"

 

[jimm]

So it is projected the net profit will never drop below -£190m? Well some projections disagree with that, as the above post from watcher zero points out. As the radio 4 interviewer with the First Group MD points out "heads you win, tails the taxpayer loses"

Mr O'Toole isn't the one setting the rules, is he?

The Tories came up with this lunacy and Labour did nothing about it all the time they were in office. Am I the only one rather tired of Ms Eagle's outbursts about how terrible it all is? I don't remember her demanding that her party should do something about it in the 13 years when they had the chance.

 

[Wath Yard]

1. Virgin are the best marketers in UK rail. First are arguably the worst. But apparently First are suddenly going to find a market that Virgin failed to. AND KEEP ON DOING IT, year after year after year.

Wrong on both counts. I live in a region served by both TPE and Virgin and have never seen or heard a VT advert, except on Youtube. TPE widely advertise on both TV and radio.

2. The current 35% capacity still has plenty of occasions where the train is full and standing. First want to double usage. Are people suddenly going to move from Birmingham to Oxenholme? From Manchester to Penrith? Are businessmen going to start meetings in London at 2pm rather than 10am? These changes are the only way that First can reach 70% capacity WITHOUT REDUCING YIELD.

Again this is incorrect. Even on peak trains PiXC on ICWC is < 1%. Friday evenings and Sunday afternoons are very busy but that only represents a very small part of the week.
Why would people move from Birmingham - Oxenholme? People travel to different parts of the country without moving there.

First are relying on something else - like HS2 not happening

How are First relying on HS2 not happening? It isn't scheduled to open until 2026 and that is when the franchise finishes.

 

[WestCoast]

Wrong on both counts. I live in a region served by both TPE and Virgin and have never seen or heard a VT advert, except on Youtube. TPE widely advertise on both TV and radio.

Just recently I haven't seen any VT adverts on TV, but I certainly used to! I remember they had various advertising campaigns, which ran frequently and tended to be rather imaginative compared to the mainstream/boring campaigns by First e.t.c.

Having said that, they might need to fill up the London - Birmingham/Manchester off-peak services, but the Glasgow services (via Wigan - Carlisle stations) carry healthy loads in standard class for most of the day!

 

[YorkshireRider]

Mr O'Toole isn't the one setting the rules, is he?

The Tories came up with this lunacy and Labour did nothing about it all the time they were in office. Am I the only one rather tired of Ms Eagle's outbursts about how terrible it all is? I don't remember her demanding that her party should do something about it in the 13 years when they had the chance.

Couldn't agree more, i didnt mean to imply Mr O'Toole was the bad guy here, just so bizarre that they seem to have won mainly on price (750m), yet if we dont get to year 12 thats just wiped out. But as you its thier rules, and both Labour and Cons are as bad as each other on the issue.

 

[Morgsie]

The system is to blame and I agree with other posters on this and the point about Maria Eagle coming out with the rhetoric rather than doing anything about it.

Labour in the mid 1990s promised to change the system but kept and as a result of the Railways Act 2005 micromanaging it.

There is an E-Petition to reconsider the ICWC Franchise:

 

[fgwrich]

BTW latest information is that First are not buying Pendos at all, but getting the rolling stock from a Mediterranean country better known by British holidaymakers for sun and alcohol.

Hmmm, Go on...

(Im looking at Spain but can't see many 6 car tilt capable EMUs)

 

[snail]

The current 35% capacity still has plenty of occasions where the train is full and standing. First want to double usage. Are people suddenly going to move from Birmingham to Oxenholme? From Manchester to Penrith? Are businessmen going to start meetings in London at 2pm rather than 10am? These changes are the only way that First can reach 70% capacity WITHOUT REDUCING YIELD.

Have they said they are aiming to get to 70% capacity?

Adding 35% more seats without increasing passenger numbers will reduce overall capacity to 26% (35/135). Getting back to 35% capacity would mean increasing this number by 9 percentage points, a 35% increase (9/26) over the new figure. Be very careful when dealing with percentages.

 

[WatcherZero]

Looking at the figures
Stagecoach paid £158m in 1998
When Virgin Rail Group is dissolved they will receive £250m
That's a nice little warchest for bidding for the InterCity East Coast franchise

Thats only a 3.5% interest rate on their investment, nothing spectacular.

 

[87015]

Hmmm, Go on...

(Im looking at Spain but can't see many 6 car tilt capable EMUs)

CAF "Oaris" platform possibly

 

[ainsworth74]

CAF "Oaris" platform possibly

Does that have a tilt option? Just looking through a few Google search results and can't find any mention of it so far.

 

[WatcherZero]

Thats a high speed train built for 220mph, bit overengineered for 125mph, The six car set uses 8MW thats 3MW more than the 11 car Pendolino. Their regional train which is closest to the Pendolino in spec and layout is only capable of 100mph and Iberian gauge.

 

[mirodo]

Have they said they are aiming to get to 70% capacity?

Adding 35% more seats without increasing passenger numbers will reduce overall capacity to 26% (35/135). Getting back to 35% capacity would mean increasing this number by 9 percentage points, a 35% increase (9/26) over the new figure. Be very careful when dealing with percentages.

I think they've said that the expected 35% occupancy is based on Current Passenger Volume / New Capacity, assuming there are no extra passengers.

 

[tbtc]

BTW latest information is that First are not buying Pendos at all, but getting the rolling stock from a Mediterranean country better known by British holidaymakers for sun and alcohol.

Hmm, that could be any country around the Med (with the exception of Libya)

There is an E-Petition to reconsider the ICWC Franchise:

Have any of these ever changed anything?

 

[Wath Yard]

There is an E-Petition to reconsider the ICWC Franchise:

I urge the government to reconsider this decision or to seek public opinion in these franchise bids.

Oh, dear. What percentage of the public are going to read 4 * 1500 page submissions or have the knowledge and understanding to try and establish if the bid is deliverable or credible?

 

[Morgsie]

Oh, dear. What percentage of the public are going to read 4 * 1500 page submissions or have the knowledge and understanding to try and establish if the bid is deliverable or credible?

The Franchise System should include the passengers in the decision making process

 

[mallard]

There is an E-Petition to reconsider the ICWC Franchise:

Next thing we know, the RMT will be mounting another ill-advised legal challenge...

 

[mirodo]

Oh, dear. What percentage of the public are going to read 4 * 1500 page submissions or have the knowledge and understanding to try and establish if the bid is deliverable or credible?

The answer to that is not necessarily the same as the %age of the public who will sign the petition!

 

[ainsworth74]

The Franchise System should include the passengers in the decision making process

In what capacity?

 

[David10]

Have any of these ever changed anything?

Not likely, though if you get 100,000 votes it 'could' be debated in the House of Commons http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/how-it-works/

 

[YorkshireBear]

In what capacity?

Considering some of the public thought that first would bring in their own pacers/sprinters/313s to run the expresses and virgin would now scrap their voyagers and penidilinos id say no capacity...

 

[Morgsie]

Passengers only have the right to respond to DfT's Consultations, they should be much more involved because they use the services.

Is Passenger Focus Involved?

 

[snail]

I think they've said that the expected 35% occupancy is based on Current Passenger Volume / New Capacity, assuming there are no extra passengers.

Good point, checking back they did say that. That would put the estimated current capacity around 47%, which doesn't sound terrible given the traffic pattern and distances covered.

Like I said, you have to be careful with percentages!!

 

[Nym]

What might be better would be to count the number services arriving into Euston at certain load levels or utilisation scores, and attribute these to a 'score'.

 

[sprinterguy]

Is Passenger Focus Involved?

They tend to draw up fairly detailed, extensive and sensible reports for the consultation process, detailing their findings from passengers.

 

[DarloRich]

The Franchise System should include the passengers in the decision making process

Why? The average passenger knows sod all about how the railways work. Virgin knows this, milks this and then rides the wave of brand awareness, slick media management, and goodwill all the way to the bank!

Read the comments on the BBC web page about this. It appears many villages are short of their idiots this week!

 

[mallard]

Why? The average passenger knows sod all about how the railways work. Virgin knows this, milks this and then rides the wave of brand awareness, slick media management, and goodwill all the way to the bank!

Read the comments on the BBC web page about this. It appears many villages are short of their idiots this week!

Didn't BR have "user groups" or something similar, to allow passenger representatives to feed back to route management? Something similar could be done for franchising, having the bidders give presentations (anonymously, to avoid branding impact) and receive some sort of "rating" from the group that could be fed back to the DfT.

 

[DarloRich]

Didn't BR have "user groups" or something similar, to allow passenger representatives to feed back to route management? Something similar could be done for franchising, having the bidders give presentations (anonymously, to avoid branding impact) and receive some sort of "rating" from the group that could be fed back to the DfT.

that is what passenger foicus do ( i think!)

How many passengers are equipped to question and interogate what the TOC tells them? What will the majority of passengers ask? I would suggest simple, easy qurestions like:

1) Will i get a seat
2) Will it be cheap and fast
3) Can i get a cup of tea
4) Will you be on time , everytime?
5) Will more trains stop at my station?

Now what would your answers be if you made the presentation?

 

[tbtc]

Why? The average passenger knows sod all about how the railways work. Virgin knows this, milks this and then rides the wave of brand awareness, slick media management, and goodwill all the way to the bank!

Read the comments on the BBC web page about this. It appears many villages are short of their idiots this week!

Sadly you are right - look at the number who don't even realise that the TOCs don't own their own stock

 

[dosxuk]

Oh, dear. What percentage of the public are going to read 4 * 1500 page submissions or have the knowledge and understanding to try and establish if the bid is deliverable or credible?

You mean the submission aren't an easily digestible half a sheet of A4 bullet points with pictures of aircraft and happy customers (Virgin) and broken down busses and stranded passengers (First) like the majority of people seem to think?

Next you'll be telling me that the train companies don't own their own trains, and they can't decide they don't like places, like Birmingham, and redirect all the trains that stop there.