First win Intercity West Coast franchise

[David10]

Will their be prevention on passengers between certain stops to prevent abstraction from Midland though? I dont know the area that well but W&S did didnt they.

That was because of Virgin's now expired non-compete clause meaning W&S couldn't call at Birmingham and only pick up on west bound and set down on south bound services at Wolverhampton.

 

[WatcherZero]

Yes but ORR has to approve the new routes and judge if their just ORCATS raids or not, it could set similar conditions.

 

[junglejames]

Just out of interest, in terms of reliability how does East Coast compare to Virgin? Apart from my annual visit to the Peterborough beer festival and the occasional Derby away game I never use the ECML.

Both companies have good points and bad points. However surely the overall travel experience has to be better with EC. Much nicer trains that are always a pleasure to travel on.
Obviously some of the problems with the pendys is down to tilt, but a lot is down to the design, and virgins interior designers.
Id say EC win quite easily.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Sorry, I should have been more specific, the Turbostars and Meridians Midland Mainline introduced.

Turbostars should never have been introduced on MM services.
222s are quite good. Pleasantish interior.
If we consider new MUs, then Meridians must be one of the best. Id rather travel on a 222 than a 390.

 

[HH]

From
I'm puzzled how gating Euston will be of benefit? Unless the gates can be platform-specific and aware of which train is departing from a platform (which I don't think I've seen anywhere else), they'll basically have to allow anyone who happens to have an Oystercard through (because you could be using an Oyster to go to Watford Junction on London Midland), in contrast to the current situation where the human ticket inspectors at Virgin gates can check your ticket is valid for the train you're about to board. Besides most Virgin trains go quite a way from Euston before their first stop - ample time to check all tickets on board.

They will only gate the WC platforms. And Virgin already carry out manual checks at Euston.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Just to give a flavour of the size of First's task, 5.8% growth over 13 years means that they would more than double the number of passengers carried. This raises two questions:

1. Where are these people going to come from? No huge rise in population, so what they are in effect saying is that there is a huge amount of pent-up demand.

2. How are they going to carry them? Capacity isn't increasing anywhere near this number. Popular trains are already crowded. First are betting the farm that they can change people's travelling patterns in a significant way.

Or you take the cynical view - they never intend to get anywhere near year 13...

 

[Failed Unit]

From First's announcement



I'm puzzled how gating Euston will be of benefit? Unless the gates can be platform-specific and aware of which train is departing from a platform (which I don't think I've seen anywhere else), they'll basically have to allow anyone who happens to have an Oystercard through (because you could be using an Oyster to go to Watford Junction on London Midland), in contrast to the current situation where the human ticket inspectors at Virgin gates can check your ticket is valid for the train you're about to board. Besides most Virgin trains go quite a way from Euston before their first stop - ample time to check all tickets on board.

On the other hand I can see the benefits of gating the smaller stations en route - places like Lancaster, Preston and Oxenholme, where it appears to be very easy to make short journeys without having your ticket checked anywhere.

We had the same debate about kings cross, it still is gated and inconviencing people, it just means fare evasion is a bit easier as they don't check tickets as often now, even on Kings Cross - York non-stop.

Be interesting how much revenue increases as a result on the free sections such as Wigan - Preston where people know the chances of getting stopped is slim.

 

[Aictos]

If FWC's livery will be anything like Hull Trains' livery then excellent

Yep, fully agree

 

[tbtc]

Turbostars should never have been introduced on MM services

What would you have bought for the new Nottingham/ Derby - London stoppers that the 170s were introduced for?

 

[PR1Berske]

We had the same debate about kings cross, it still is gated and inconviencing people, it just means fare evasion is a bit easier as they don't check tickets as often now, even on Kings Cross - York non-stop.

Be interesting how much revenue increases as a result on the free sections such as Wigan - Preston where people know the chances of getting stopped is slim.

The WGN-PRE run on a Saturday morning, if my hungover memory is any guide, has not had ticket checks for months! However, there's been increased checks set up at the subway there now on and off for some time so it's not always possible to get away with it

This is probably worth another thread but I'm sure gateing Preston and Wigan will be a devil's own job.

 

[The Planner]

Yes but ORR has to approve the new routes and judge if their just ORCATS raids or not, it could set similar conditions.

As mentioned, moderation of competition is gone. The only complainant is likely to be ATW as LM still have the local market sewn up.

 

[tbtc]

As mentioned, moderation of competition is gone. The only complainant is likely to be ATW as LM still have the local market sewn up.

Talking of "moderation of competition", any Open Access on the WCML is going to tear a bigger hole in First's figures than GC managed to do to GNER.

 

[PR1Berske]

Has this decision killed off Open Access along the WCML then?

 

[sprinterguy]

They will only gate the WC platforms. And Virgin already carry out manual checks at Euston.

Out of curiosity, which platforms at Euston aren't West Coast platforms? I've boarded and alighted Virgin services at platforms from 2 to 18, and plenty inbetween. Thinking about it, is it a handful somewhere in the middle? How many of them have approach ramps that are completely separate from the West Coast platforms?

 

[snail]

This is probably worth another thread but I'm sure gateing Preston and Wigan will be a devil's own job.

Probably, but I don't see a problem at Wigan, which has only one entrance (assuming the service exit will be closed). Even Preston has only 3 exits, which wouldn't be that difficult to gate. The biggest problem would be catching people changing trains there, something Northern guards seem reluctant to pick up on going by the number of people I've heard ask for tickets from Preston.

Surely gating is there to ensure people have tickets, checking if they are valid for a particular journey is something to pick up on train or at the origin/destination.

A more difficult station to gate could be Lancaster, which has exits either side and an overbridge that is used as an informal shortcut for non-travellers.

 

[The Planner]

Has this decision killed off Open Access along the WCML then?

Personally I think it has made it tougher than ever for it to ever happen now.

 

[rail-britain]

I had noted there were two mentions of 35%
Was this just coincidence or a misunderstanding of the terms used in the Press Release?

The current average capacity is 35% (First Group)
First InterCity West Coast advise they are increasing capacity by 35% (DfT)

On the plus side First InterCity West Coast have now confirmed the 35% increase as follows :
The current capacity is based on a 9 car Class 390 (2011 passengers)
The increased capacity is based on the revised Class 390 capacity after refurbishment (2016 passengers)
The current Coach G is to be declassified with 74 seats
edit : I have been advised further details have been sent to me in the post which show the train layout (scope) and artist impression after refurbishment

First InterCity West Coast plan to launch their website on 03 September 2012 and open for ticket sales from 17 September 2012

 

[furryfeet]

There are things you can do, some of which Virgin, to their credit, have done. The cheapest walk-on fare from Preston - Glasgow is less than half the price of the cheapest Preston - London fare, despite the distance being similar.

This is a hangover from BR - presumably the cheap-day-return from Preston to Glasgow still exists
a) because of the competition from TPE
b) there would be some negative headlines from the press about the cheapest fare going up by a large amount if the said cheap-day was abolished.

Virgin have not made such fares cheaper - they still go up every year, as do the advances.

Now whether First will scrap such fares altogether, as Central Trains did with cheap-day returns from the East Midlands to Brimingham, only time will tell .....

 

[Scooby]

Be interesting how much revenue increases as a result on the free sections such as Wigan - Preston where people know the chances of getting stopped is slim.

& Preston - Lancaster where the attempts at evasion are absolutely blatant.

 

[Wath Yard]

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Just to give a flavour of the size of First's task, 5.8% growth over 13 years means that they would more than double the number of passengers carried. This raises two questions:

1. Where are these people going to come from? No huge rise in population, so what they are in effect saying is that there is a huge amount of pent-up demand.

2. How are they going to carry them? Capacity isn't increasing anywhere near this number. Popular trains are already crowded. First are betting the farm that they can change people's travelling patterns in a significant way.

Or you take the cynical view - they never intend to get anywhere near year 13...

1. First have given a few clues to how they intend to increase passenger numbers, some in their conference call with analysts. Only 9% of ICWC passengers are commuters so, using clever marketing and pricing, there is potential to tap into the business and leisure markets. The reference to Eurostar was very interesting.

2. Capacity doesn't need to grow by anywhere near the same amount as growth in passengers numbers. If passenger numbers doubled and capacity doubled it would mean they would still be running half empty trains; the trains would just be longer. The extra Pendolino vehicles weren't ordered because all ICWC services are currently full and standing, they were ordered to cater for future projected passenger growth.

 

[HawkeyeTheNoo]

Interesting reading indeed

Precise Report

RAIL INDUSTRY: Virgin bid 'rated more deliverable'

The shortlisted bidders for the West Coast train franchise were yesterday given feedback on how their bids were rated on the Department for Transport's 'scoring matrix', reveals the Daily Telegraph (Alistair Osborne). The scores show that Virgin Rail's losing bid was rated as more 'deliverable' than the winning bid from FirstGroup. Deliverability covers issues such as timetabling for forecast demand and improvements to service quality. FirstGroup is understood to have earned a higher rating for customer service, despite being repeatedly outscored by Virgin in passenger satisfaction surveys, and also beaten Virgin on fleet delivery. The official scores are believed to have done nothing to persuade Virgin founder Sir Richard Branson to drop his threat of a judicial review.

 

[Realfish]

Personally I think it has made it tougher than ever for it to ever happen now.

There is, though, 'open access' of a sort, from Birmingham, albeit not on the WC, with Chiltern / DB. Friends using the strengthened and accelerated service from Moor Street are extremely pleased with the comfort and service.

If First get their offering wrong they can expect some siginificant attrition between Brum and London, especially with the Chiltern annual ST to London being aound £2300 cheaper.

I can't find it now, but I am sure that I saw, as part of their refurbishment, First were proposing to add more seats to the Pendo coaches - to 84? (from 72? -which might explain where some of the additional seats are coming from to meet their peak trafic growth forecast). This seems at odds with their view that customers found the vehicles claustrophobic.

If First have got this wrong, Chiltern better find themselves some more MK3's, they will need them to strengthen their services even further.

 

[YorkshireRider]

Or you take the cynical view - they never intend to get anywhere near year 13...

Wouldn't say its cynical, how can anyone not think it when the financial penalty for walking away is only a tiny fraction of the last 4 years premium payments combined. How can the companys exposure be less than a third of the final years payment???

 

[All Line Rover]

The current average capacity is 35% (First Group)
First InterCity West Coast advise they are increasing capacity by 35% (DfT)

On the plus side First InterCity West Coast have now confirmed the 35% increase as follows :
The current capacity is based on a 9 car Class 390 (2011 passengers)
The increased capacity is based on the revised Class 390 capacity after refurbishment (2016 passengers)
The current Coach G is to be declassified with 74 seats
edit : I have been advised further details have been sent to me in the post which show the train layout (scope) and artist impression after refurbishment

AT LAST! First have seen sense and realised that they'll never fill four First Class coaches, even on the busiest services. (This means the Pendolinos will have the same number or fewer First Class seats compared to First Great Western, East Coast and East Midlands Trains 7-car Meridians and HSTs). It is excellent news that Pendolinos are going to have 6 or 8 Standard Class coaches.

74 seats is the same as Coach U, so thankfully First aren't going to try and cram even more seats in (unlike CrossCountry).

With regard to Coach D on the Super Voyagers, although it would seem to make sense for First to convert it back to its original layout, it's worth noting that on the busiest Chester to London services Coach E is full. So unless First double up these services or completely withdraw First Class Advances so as to reduce demand, I don't see how they could convert Coach D back to a Standard Class Only coach.

 

[snail]

Wouldn't say its cynical, how can anyone not think it when the financial penalty for walking away is only a tiny fraction of the last 4 years premium payments combined. How can the companys exposure be less than a third of the final years payment???

Because it is projected that by then the net profit to First will be greater than the cost of the penalty?

It's not difficult maths.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Will their be prevention on passengers between certain stops to prevent abstraction from Midland though? I dont know the area that well but W&S did didnt they.

The LM franchise expires in 2015 before these services come in, so it will need to be taken into account for the next one.
More pertinent is the conflict with Arriva Trains Wales (franchise expires 2018), who will certainly be impacted by a Birmingham-Shrewsbury-Chester service if it is regular.
A "3-hourly" service would be very complicated to interwork with ATW's hourly/2-hourly cycles.

 

[rail-britain]

With regard to Coach D on the Super Voyagers, although it would seem to make sense for First to convert it back to its original layout
I don't see how they could convert Coach D back to a Standard Class Only coach

I didn't actually ask about the Voyager and if there were plans to change the seating capacity (which modifying Coach D would incur)
I will send this as a followup question

 

[WatcherZero]

Analysts have plugged Virgin and the other bidders expected passenger numbers into the First premium payment model. First will start making a loss after the fourth year rising to £449m in the final year, making a loss of £1.5bn on the contract as a whole. Deutsche Bank has in response changed the trading advice to Sell. First is predicting it will get 25% more passengers per year by the end of the franchise than the other bidders.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...ranchise-win-increases-risks-first-46981.html

 

[HH]

1. First have given a few clues to how they intend to increase passenger numbers, some in their conference call with analysts. Only 9% of ICWC passengers are commuters so, using clever marketing and pricing, there is potential to tap into the business and leisure markets. The reference to Eurostar was very interesting.

2. Capacity doesn't need to grow by anywhere near the same amount as growth in passengers numbers. If passenger numbers doubled and capacity doubled it would mean they would still be running half empty trains; the trains would just be longer. The extra Pendolino vehicles weren't ordered because all ICWC services are currently full and standing, they were ordered to cater for future projected passenger growth.

Yes, I've seen what they say, and I don't believe it.

1. Virgin are the best marketers in UK rail. First are arguably the worst. But apparently First are suddenly going to find a market that Virgin failed to. AND KEEP ON DOING IT, year after year after year.

2. The current 35% capacity still has plenty of occasions where the train is full and standing. First want to double usage. Are people suddenly going to move from Birmingham to Oxenholme? From Manchester to Penrith? Are businessmen going to start meetings in London at 2pm rather than 10am? These changes are the only way that First can reach 70% capacity WITHOUT REDUCING YIELD.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Analysts have plugged Virgin and the other bidders expected passenger numbers into the First premium payment model. First will start making a loss after the fourth year rising to £449m in the final year, making a loss of £1.5bn on the contract as a whole. Deutsche Bank has in response changed the trading advice to Sell. First is predicting it will get 25% more passengers per year by the end of the franchise than the other bidders.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...ranchise-win-increases-risks-first-46981.html

Yes, this is what I was saying. It's just not believable. First are relying on something else - like HS2 not happening and getting a renegotiation, or the GDP revenue support mechanism to kick in, or taking out profit early and handing back they keys around year 6. They're doing something dirty but smart in my opinion.

DfT aren't looking particularly happy about the result. I think they know they've been had, but it's their process.

BTW latest information is that First are not buying Pendos at all, but getting the rolling stock from a Mediterranean country better known by British holidaymakers for sun and alcohol.

 

[Tim R-T-C]

Big question about First's plan is who will suffer if they default? I am guessing not the top level who make decisions since they will have juicy contracts and can all blame someone else for the mess. not the ground level staff who hopefully would have to be retained by a bailout renationalising and have proactive unions to help them. So it is the poor sods in the middle - the First admin staff and shareholders who will take the fall and if a firm goes under they will not even see a penny in redundancy.

 

[rail-britain]

1. Virgin are the best marketers in UK rail

Virgin Rail actually struggled to begin with
I believe they had hoped for a 5% increase in passenger numbers from what they had classed as aggressive marketing campaigns, but this foundered due to the existing (inherited) rolling stock and in the first year of the franchise actually suffered a decrease in passenger numbers
Hence why they sold a share to Stagecoach, who provided the marketing experience in the UK internal travel market from then onwards, to ensure this was in place when the new rolling stock was introduced

Looking at the figures
Stagecoach paid £158m in 1998
When Virgin Rail Group is dissolved they will receive £250m
That's a nice little warchest for bidding for the InterCity East Coast franchise

 

[jimm]

FirstGroup is understood to have earned a higher rating for customer service, despite being repeatedly outscored by Virgin in passenger satisfaction surveys

Probably not difficult for Virgin to manage when they aren't having to run everything from intercities, to inter-regionals, to London commuter services, to Cornish branches with eight types of train (nine if you throw in a loco-hauled sleeper) and when Virgin apparently handle so few commuters (a notoriously dissatisfied group of passengers).

Sir Richard has deliberately steered well clear of bidding for anything other than out-and-out intercity services because of all the extra complications involved, compared with running a couple of types of train on similar sorts of services and not having to deal with lots of disgruntled commuters.

especially with the Chiltern annual ST to London being aound £2300 cheaper.

why especially - how many annual seasons are actually sold for Birmingham-London on either route? THere may be a few hardy souls who do it year-round but not that many given the length of journey involved.

More pertinent is the conflict with Arriva Trains Wales (franchise expires 2018), who will certainly be impacted by a Birmingham-Shrewsbury-Chester service if it is regular.

I suspect the circular may only function at certain times - W&S's experience of demand between Shrewsbury and Wrexham much of the day wasn't encouraging, though a faster run may help. Perhaps something more like BR's limited extensions of Shrewsbury services to/from chester via Wrexham (when locos were changed at Wolverhampton) at busy times is more likely.

Back up the thread someone wondered if these trains would call at Birmingham - I'd think so (though perhaps pick-up only westbound/set-down only eastbound to avoid swamping Voyagers). It's a v lucrative and busy flow between Shropshire and the West Midlands. When BR took off the London-Shrewsbury through service and switched to 158s running Mid-Wales/Shrewsbury to Birmingham, one of the arguments it used was that most of the passengers on the Intercities were actually travelling between Shropshire and the West Midlands and not to/from London.

And Don't First Great Western have a list of barred trains for Off-Peak tickets that would otherwise be valid by the restriction codes?

They also have trains where off-peak tickets are valid, at times of the day you might not expect, for various historical/local reasons (and take railcards), they offer local railcards in the Cotswolds and South West and are not afraid to act if they see an opportunity (eg local fare cuts in the South West have surely helped with the surge in traffic on the branches there and similar cuts have happened elsewhere, Cotswold Line off-peak fares for local journeys were reduced a while back). First are not another version of Arriva/XC in terms of their approach to ticketing, though I'm sure they will make changes on West Coast.

Were the 180s, introduced by FGW, any good for the job?

Depends what you mean.

The build quality at Alstom wasn't down to FGW, they ordered the trains in good faith.

But if you mean services they were used for, then they are ideal for off-peak on the Cotswold Line (they have been welcomed back with open arms, despite some reliability issues, because they are streets ahead of Turbos in passenger comfort), were also handy for Cheltenham trains most of the day in the past and the 560-seat queue-buster pairing used between Oxford and London in the morning peak in the past was also 'good for the job'.