First win Intercity West Coast franchise

[Lampshade]

My reading is that over 15 years there's not a great deal going to change except for the addition of 21 new gatelines...

I make that around the £5m mark for the gates alone ([STN]MCO[/STN]'s gateline was £250,000, taking that as the typical cost).

Crewe needs a new roof, Preston has been awaiting a new footbridge for years and Stockport, Wigan NW and Warrington BQ need gutting completely.

The first and primary purpose of the money is the ticket gates, it is naive to think otherwise. I'd wager it was the first thing they put in the specification.

 

[sprinterguy]

Why would they? They'll still be operated by ScotRail so what advantage would there be had by changing the name/livery? Further it's probably only going to be a few years until the Scottish Sleepers are in a separate specialist franchise.

I feel that it is an opportunity missed to fold the Caledonian sleepers into the West Coast franchise now that they are both going to be First Group operations, in the same way that First Great Western operate both the daytime Intercity services and the Night Riviera to the South West. Obviously though, it can't happen as the West Coast and the Caley sleepers are part of entirely separate franchises.

 

[HH]

Simon Calder of the Independent has worked out that First's first service on 9 December will be the 08:05 from Wolverhampton to London Euston.

Is he right?

Seems quite likely. They keys are handed over at 02:00, and Sunday services start late, so it will be the first service on a Sunday - but has the December 12 TT been published yet?

 

[sprinterguy]

If FWC's livery will be anything like Hull Trains' livery then excellent

You mean god awful dynamic lines? I would sincerely hope not, but it would seem to be the most likely option.

 

[HH]

I make that around the £5m mark for the gates alone ([STN]MCO[/STN]'s gateline was £250,000, taking that as the typical cost).

Crewe needs a new roof, Preston has been awaiting a new footbridge for years and Stockport, Wigan NW and Warrington BQ need gutting completely.

The first and primary purpose of the money is the ticket gates, it is naive to think otherwise. I'd wager it was the first thing they put in the specification.

Totally agree. Crewe & Preston were in NR's workplan, and I think First will have to do them. That doesn't leave much money for anything else (£5m?).

 

[RichmondCommu]

True, but there have been plenty of infrastructure problems on other big routes (like the ECML wires). I'd have expected Virgin (with new trains and upgraded WCML) to have much better figures than East Coast/ FGW for long distance trains

In my experience the vast majority of infrastructure faults tend to occour at the southern end of the WCML which inevitably have a greater effect as the vast majority of services start from Euston. These faults generally appear to be the result of power shortages rather than the wires being down. I don't work in the rail industry but from what I can gather the WCML upgrade didn't deliver what was promised!

Wires down between say York and Newcastlle will not effect all ECML services, as opposed to a problem at Wembley! Not only that but I'm guessing that the ECML has a much bigger diesel fleet then say the WCML which must surely help when the wires are down?

 

[sprinterguy]

Virgin wants an easy ride so should go for the c2c franchise if it wants to have a no-hassle gig in the future.

It's rather too late for that though!

 

[David10]

I feel that it is an opportunity missed to fold the Caledonian sleepers into the West Coast franchise now that they are both going to be First Group operations, in the same way that First Great Western operate both the daytime Intercity services and the Night Riviera to the South West. Obviously though, it can't happen as the West Coast and the Caley sleepers are part of entirely separate franchises.

Also ScotRail reports to the Scottish Executve not the DfT and it is funded differently. Will be going the other way with the Sleeper to have its own franchise from 2014.

 

[sprinterguy]

I was involved on quotation & presentation teams for many years in the road haulage industry and realise just how important utilisation is for improving profitability.
If I'd told my boss that vehicle utilisation was 35% , he'd have "shot the messenger" IE me , there & then !

I'm surprised that the general consensus seems to be that the number is ok . I'd be interested to see how FGW or EC compares with this because it was a real eye opener for me.

FGW might have a slightly higher occupancy rate as it is a multi-purpose franchise with some strong off peak markets out West as well as a large commuter flow into London, but EC will probably be similar.

In terms of average seat occupancy across the whole train fleet, some commuter operators are likely to have an even lower occupancy rate than 35%: Take the c2c operation for example, while every seat will be occupied into Fenchurch Street during the morning peak, just under 30% of the train fleet is utilised during the greater part of the day during the off-peak, and those that are in service are often loaded to no more than 10-30% of their seated capacity. Intercity operators rarely have such dramatic peaks in fleet utilisation, but instead have a similar number of trains in service at all times during the day that are simply fuller during the peaks and emptier outside of them.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

- Which makes sense, the amount of people you see moving house (literally!) by train is unreal, unlike EC and FGW et al they don't have the luxury of a massive dedicated luggage van, though TBF the provision in carriages is quite poor.

Yeah, only because they decided to rid themselves of their massive dedicated luggage vans, and fail to replace them with something adequate.

 

[Wath Yard]

No ones bothered because its not an unreasonable figure. As pointed out British Rail averaged 36%.

There are things you can do, some of which Virgin, to their credit, have done. The cheapest walk-on fare from Preston - Glasgow is less than half the price of the cheapest Preston - London fare, despite the distance being similar.

Pointing out the figure is similar to under BR is really just proving what a failure privatisation has been in many respects.

 

[Pen Mill]

FGW might have a slightly higher occupancy rate as it is a multi-purpose franchise with some strong off peak markets out West as well as a large commuter flow into London, but EC will probably be similar.

Fine thanks for your input

 

[sprinterguy]

Also ScotRail reports to the Scottish Executve not the DfT and it is funded differently. Will be going the other way with the Sleeper to have its own franchise from 2014.

That's a shame, as having the sleepers as a stand alone franchise will do nothing to prop up it's significant costs.

 

[The Planner]

Seems quite likely. They keys are handed over at 02:00, and Sunday services start late, so it will be the first service on a Sunday - but has the December 12 TT been published yet?

Offered a few months back.

 

[hairyhandedfool]

I won't be sad to see Virgin go.

When they first won the franchise, Richard Branson promised to bring airline service to his railway. I wrote back suggesting he should bring railway service to his airline instead.

In recent years we have seen

* customer hostile ticketing policies with the peak period lengthening year on year and inspectors who "fine" people hundreds of pounds for innocent mistakes

Surely that should be "'non-railcard holding passenger' hostile ticketing policies.....", given that they allow railcard holders to travel on 'peak time' trains with Off-Peak tickets, something which is bound to disappear under First Group.

And Don't First Great Western have a list of barred trains for Off-Peak tickets that would otherwise be valid by the restriction codes?

Virgin were the first to simplify their range of Advance fares (and to be fair it was simple) producing lower fares for those who could commit to times. You can't blame Virgin for the later ATOC 'Simplification' project. But you are right, 'peak period' travel for non-railcard holders did get more expensive under VRG's 'era'.

Incidentally, Virgin's policy of charging people for not having the correct fare is an official policy for all TOCs that do not use Penalty Fares, it's just that not all guards follow it.

* a TOC which tells people not to travel with heavy luggage because there isn't space

Would you rather they encouraged it?

* a TOC which doesn't operate late night trains from Euston

Really?

Last train to Wolverhampton from Euston? 2330

Lets have a look around.....

Last train to Bristol from Paddington? 2330

Last Train to Leeds from Kings Cross? 2330

Last train to Derby from St Pancras? 2315

* claustrophobic Pendolinos introduced with tiny little windows and sloping sides which cut into your shoulder

Were the 180s, introduced by FGW, any good for the job? Did the Turbostars and Meridians (glorified Voyagers if you're honest) meet with universal approval? And what did GNER and NXEC introduce? Oh yeah, nothing.

Be honest, Virgin had just about the oldest fleet of trains on the network, they had to be replaced, even if the choice of stock may not have suited everyone (it was never going to suit everyone!).

* through services axed to destinations like Blackpool off the main line

The Blackpool service back then really wasn't getting used beyond Preston, it was a nice thing to have, but I doubt it was paying for itself. Given the good links from Blackpool to Preston and Manchester, I hardly think it is really missed.

* useless timetable leaflets which deny the existence of other operators or connecting services

This Transpennine Express timetable is no doubt a shining example of First Group not hiding other operators services. Indeed it notes Northern Rail services (on Sundays only, when replaced by Buses giving an overall longer journey connection than waiting for the next train) and one EMT service (which happens to be a service to St Pancras)

* trains to the north-west crowded out by Milton Keynes commuters

Don't First Group want to stop more trains at Milton Keynes?

* no direct connecting services (rail or road) from the WCML to Heathrow Airport and poorer connections to Gatwick

So Southern not running services off of the West Coast Mainline to Gatwick is Virgin's fault? When exactly were there direct rail services from the WCML to Heathrow? And wouldn't providing more road links to Heathrow mean stopping more trains at Milton Keynes?

 

[aylesbury]

Sorry to see the bearded on go they sent me an email thanking me for using them have used First to Penzance very good with good catering.Hope they bring in the traveling chef it makes a difference and will someone in within First sort pongy loos on the Pendo,s pluss much better seating thats all folks.

 

[tbtc]

In my experience the vast majority of infrastructure faults tend to occour at the southern end of the WCML which inevitably have a greater effect as the vast majority of services start from Euston. These faults generally appear to be the result of power shortages rather than the wires being down. I don't work in the rail industry but from what I can gather the WCML upgrade didn't deliver what was promised!

Wires down between say York and Newcastlle will not effect all ECML services, as opposed to a problem at Wembley! Not only that but I'm guessing that the ECML has a much bigger diesel fleet then say the WCML which must surely help when the wires are down?

THe biggest problem on the ECML (in my opinion) is the Peterborough area, which does scupper all services.

And, to be pedantic, Virgin have more diesels than East Coast do.

There are things you can do, some of which Virgin, to their credit, have done. The cheapest walk-on fare from Preston - Glasgow is less than half the price of the cheapest Preston - London fare, despite the distance being similar.

Pointing out the figure is similar to under BR is really just proving what a failure privatisation has been in many respects.

In a way, trebling London - Manchester services whilst maintaining the seat occupancy is impressive. But then if all the clever 'yield management' hasn't improved the take up for off-peak services then thats A Bad Thing. Certainly not the great leap forward you'd have expected. The 35% figure looks bad for Virgin (at face value, if you don't appreciate the way the railway works)

 

[WatcherZero]

There are things you can do, some of which Virgin, to their credit, have done. The cheapest walk-on fare from Preston - Glasgow is less than half the price of the cheapest Preston - London fare, despite the distance being similar.

Pointing out the figure is similar to under BR is really just proving what a failure privatisation has been in many respects.

Remember this was at a time when BR had thousands of carriages it only used in peaks and left idol for the rest of the day! Rolling stock utilisation has improved radically.

So what is "normal" or "good" seat occupancy ?

Mr Watcher Zero , the 10.4% to which First refer has run at 10.2% under Virgin for 10 years according to First's document so not only is it reasonable , nothing less would be acceptable.

There was £10bn of investment in rolling stock and track improvements under the Virgin stewardship by them and government so 10.2% a year is not that outstanding. By contrast the 10.4% First claim they will achieve with only £350m of investment by themselves and no major state investment in the route planned.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/rejected-virgin-rail-bid-west-201613290.html

Article just appeared from the Telegraph showing some details of the bid scores for Virgin and First.
It would be useful to see the full details.
The Stagecoach info published today only discusses the finance.

Virgin have 10 days (well 9 now) to mount a challenge if they want to, before the contract is fully completed after a standstill period.

 

[Wath Yard]

In a way, trebling London - Manchester services whilst maintaining the seat occupancy is impressive. But then if all the clever 'yield management' hasn't improved the take up for off-peak services then thats A Bad Thing. Certainly not the great leap forward you'd have expected. The 35% figure looks bad for Virgin (at face value, if you don't appreciate the way the railway works)

Not really. Any mediocre manager can increase passenger numbers by increasing frequency. The trick is ensuring the capacity is best utilised. Privatisation was about bringing in entrepreneurial flair and private sector skills, not just replicating BR.

It looks bad anyway. As I said they have reduced Preston – Glasgow fares to try to encourage more passengers on that flow so that trains aren’t nearly full from London – Preston and then nearly empty. It has probably partially worked. More can be done.

 

[junglejames]

Were the 180s, introduced by FGW, any good for the job? Did the Turbostars and Meridians (glorified Voyagers if you're honest) meet with universal approval? And what did GNER and NXEC introduce? Oh yeah, nothing.

Be honest, Virgin had just about the oldest fleet of trains on the network, they had to be replaced, even if the choice of stock may not have suited everyone (it was never going to suit everyone!).

GNER/ NXEC didnt need to introduce new stock.
Turbostars do the job very nicely.
So do pendys. Its just a shame virgins input (the interior) is woeful.

If we are honest Virgin arent bad, but they arent as amazing as made out. They are just an average operator. Spolit by the horendous interior of their trains, and their horendous Anytime fares. First just saying they will change the interiors is good enough reason for me to think its a good choice.
Hope it all works for them. We shall see.

 

[RichmondCommu]

THe biggest problem on the ECML (in my opinion) is the Peterborough area, which does scupper all services.

And, to be pedantic, Virgin have more diesels than East Coast do.

Just out of interest, in terms of reliability how does East Coast compare to Virgin? Apart from my annual visit to the Peterborough beer festival and the occasional Derby away game I never use the ECML.

 

[Failed Unit]

Just out of interest, in terms of reliability how does East Coast compare to Virgin? Apart from my annual visit to the Peterborough beer festival and the occasional Derby away game I never use the ECML.

About the same to be honest, east coast a bit lower at the moment not helped by quite a few dewirements and signal failures. Network rail the main issue for both routes. Fleet reliabilty is about the same which isn't bad for old clapped out 1970s HSTs. Lol

 

[WatcherZero]

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/rejected-virgin-rail-bid-west-201613290.html

Article just appeared from the Telegraph showing some details of the bid scores for Virgin and First.
It would be useful to see the full details.
The Stagecoach info published today only discusses the finance.

Virgin have 10 days (well 9 now) to mount a challenge if they want to, before the contract is fully completed after a standstill period.

Thats a good link!

Shortlisted bidders for the London-to-Scotland line were today given feedback on how their bids were rated on the department’s “scoring matrix”. They have 10 days to challenge any ratings.

Industry sources said Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Rail was rated top for “deliverability”. According to January’s Invitation to Tender document, that covers such things as “timetabling” for forecast demand and improvements to service quality.

On timetabling for demand, Virgin is thought to have easily beaten FirstGroup even though the winning bidder forecast much higher revenue and volume growth to March 2026.

Controversially, FirstGroup is understood to have earned a higher rating for customer service despite the company being repeatedly outscored by Virgin in passenger satisfaction surveys. FirstGroup is also thought to have beaten Virgin on fleet delivery even though, unlike Virgin, it is yet to finalise train contracts.

Under the rules, the department is only obliged to re-examine bids’ deliverability if they are priced within 10pc of each other. But FirstGroup’s offer of £5.5bn in net present value terms or £10bn cash over the contract was almost 15pc ahead of Virgin’s.

Does look a bit dodgy and excellent grounds for Virgin to appeal.

 

[RichmondCommu]

About the same to be honest, east coast a bit lower at the moment not helped by quite a few dewirements and signal failures. Network rail the main issue for both routes. Fleet reliabilty is about the same which isn't bad for old clapped out 1970s HSTs. Lol

Thats the thing with the HST, they are very reliable although it does help that the entire fleet has had a major re-build and there are two power cars! However it seem that delays are mostly infrastructure related rather than the fault of the TOC's.

 

[WatcherZero]

Details on the Shrewsbury and Telford’s service. Earliest it would start would be 2016 (presumably when voyagers are freed up), five services a day with around a 3 hour interval. Will be under two and half hours beating Wrexham and Shropshire service by around an hour, would run through Birmingham New Street but doesnt say whether it would stop or not.

Voyager seating changes, interior refurb and improved Wi-fi would be phased in over the first two and a half years of the Telford service when possible.

 

[hairyhandedfool]

....Turbostars do the job very nicely....

Sorry, I should have been more specific, the Turbostars and Meridians Midland Mainline introduced.

 

[The Planner]

Details on the Shrewsbury and Telford’s service. Earliest it would start would be 2016 (presumably when voyagers are freed up), five services a day with around a 3 hour interval. Will be under two and half hours beating Wrexham and Shropshire service by around an hour, would run through Birmingham New Street but doesnt say whether it would stop or not.

Voyager seating changes, interior refurb and improved Wi-fi would be phased in over the first two and a half years of the Telford service when possible.

They will be extensions of EBWs so they will stop.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

From First's announcement

Installation of automatic ticket gates installation at 21 stations, including the major terminals of London Euston, Manchester Piccadilly, Liverpool Lime St and Glasgow Central

I'm puzzled how gating Euston will be of benefit? Unless the gates can be platform-specific and aware of which train is departing from a platform (which I don't think I've seen anywhere else), they'll basically have to allow anyone who happens to have an Oystercard through (because you could be using an Oyster to go to Watford Junction on London Midland), in contrast to the current situation where the human ticket inspectors at Virgin gates can check your ticket is valid for the train you're about to board. Besides most Virgin trains go quite a way from Euston before their first stop - ample time to check all tickets on board.

On the other hand I can see the benefits of gating the smaller stations en route - places like Lancaster, Preston and Oxenholme, where it appears to be very easy to make short journeys without having your ticket checked anywhere.

 

[harz99]

As I said they have reduced Preston – Glasgow fares to try to encourage more passengers on that flow so that trains aren’t nearly full from London – Preston and then nearly empty. It has probably partially worked. More can be done.

Nothing to do with fares competition from FirstTpex then?

 

[WatcherZero]

They will be extensions of EBWs so they will stop.

Will their be prevention on passengers between certain stops to prevent abstraction from Midland though? I dont know the area that well but W&S did didnt they.