First win Intercity West Coast franchise

[swt_passenger]

The difference is that £5.5bn is the first cut off date, £6.5-7.0bn the second (after an extension). BTW this is not a guess this is based on information given to the markets, which doesn't figure in the official press release.

Virgins figure (announced to the market by Stagecoach) was £700m less, £4.8bn at the first cut off, and £5.8bn after the extension.

So not a million miles away, as predicted a few days ago.

 

[HH]

The staff at Picc look rather p--sed off to say the least

They've probably been given a lot of Branson propaganda. But also they will lose some nice Virgin benefits. TBH First aren't that bad; 90% of the problems are with local managers and they won't change.

 

[Miken]

Looking on the positive side for spotters on the WCML at last a new livery, then maybe another in 6 months when it reverts to government ownership...

Lord preserve us... some of us have to TRAVEL on these trains.. for work... it is not a hobby but a necessity... It's obvious from a lot of 'insider' posts on this forum that the travelling public are at the bottom of the heap and it doesn't matter a jot what we as customers think and feel about this dreadful news.

 

[HH]

No, you've said it yourself. It's because the DaFT says so.

No, it's because they work. I've seen the numbers.

 

[RobShipway]

No one can really predict the future, all people can speculate at this point in time as to what is in store for the the ICWC rolutes, staff etc.... by being run by First from December.

Best for the time being think positive, rather than negative despite what has happened in the past when companies over bidding for a franchise have handed back the keys.

 

[Tiny Tim]

Branson says he wanted to improve the travelling experience - was he successful?

Sounds like the subject for a separate thread.

 

[giblets]

Take a look at Cross Country!

When Virgin had control of Cross Country it was a great service to use. Arriva have murdered it! I can't remember the last time that I enjoyed a CC service in recent years.

Is that when they were running 51% reliability, or when the Strategic Rail Authority had to step in?

As a bit of an aviation fan, I do find it amusing that posters on here are aghast about Bransons claims. "strongly think about bidding again", cue bidding on the very next franchise to come up. I don't believe a word he says anymore

With the airlines, he's been complain about BA taking over heathrow, and all the slots, and how they would start internal service for years, but they can't because they can't get the slots, at the same time as renting out his own slots, and BA buying slots on the open market.

Whilst Branson was great in the 80's and early 90's, he now just seems to play on the David Vs Goliath act, playing hard done by every single time.

 

[BananaRepublic]

So much of these bids involves predicting what the economic outlook will be 5, 6, 10 13 years down the line.
The City and a whole army of economists must be queuing at the doors of the would be TOC's to find out what secret insight about the future they possess.

 

[WatcherZero]

Mmm, £1bn back ended in the last three years £70m performance bond....

Odds First are just going to walk away and accept losing the bond because it costs less than actually running it, leaving the Governmemt without the payday at the end again?

 

[scrapy]

Sounds like the subject for a separate thread.

Maybe this thread should be split as there are several mini discussions within the same thread. I would suggest seperate threads for:-

The financial viablity of the bid
New 6 car trains
New destinations and service frequency changes
The loss of the Virgin brand
Station enhancements and ticket gating
Changes to catering and refurbishment of trains
Ticket pricing, restriction changes and loyalty schemes
What it means for staff

 

[williamn]

I
Whilst Branson was great in the 80's and early 90's, he now just seems to play on the David Vs Goliath act, playing hard done by every single time.

That's part of Virgin Atlantic's brand strategy though, to play the part of a plucky fresh airline, as opposed to the big monolithic ones. And it works.

If you're interested in airlines you might see through this, but it doesn't matter as you're not a typical customer.

 

[rail-britain]

2013 -£11
2014 £26
2015 £106
2016 £178
2017 £265
2018 £325
2019 £390
2020 £443
2021 £498
2022 £552
2023 £602
2024 £644
2025 £697
2026 £739
so it's going to take 4 years before it even matches Today's £160 million

I've been looking at this and trying to work out a similar comparison to NatExEC, where they had trains at near full capacity and failed to make the payment

First InterCity West Coast claim current trains are only operating at 35% capacity (find that hard to believe as VT have provided contrary figures)

On a comparison basis it looks like First InterCity West Coast might reach equilibrium in 2016
However their additional 11 trains would come into use, but this would only increase turnover by about 20%
Therefore financial equilibrium with that fleet would be reached in 2018
It will be interesting to see what changes they make, if any, after 2018

 

[snail]

Whilst Branson was great in the 80's and early 90's, he now just seems to play on the David Vs Goliath act, playing hard done by every single time.

Listening to a live interview with him on the news at 1 he certainly came over that way. Apparently the newspapers will be given details of Virgin's bid tomorrow, with the improvements they intended to implement.

 

[rail-britain]

The additional 1st seating in coach K if the kitchen is removed would also allow coach G to become standard class with the catering possibly added there as part of the refurb

Equally, convert Coach G into a buffet (at the end next to Coach U)
Retain part of the First Class
The remaining displaced seats could then be moved to Coach K
How old school is that!

How easy would it be to move the Train Managers office and integrate?

 

[Wath Yard]

Lord preserve us... some of us have to TRAVEL on these trains.. for work... it is not a hobby but a necessity... It's obvious from a lot of 'insider' posts on this forum that the travelling public are at the bottom of the heap and it doesn't matter a jot what we as customers think and feel about this dreadful news.

Can you clarify why it is dreadful news, why customers are at the bottom of the heap (when some fares are being cut, and service improvements are being promised), and who the 'insiders' you are referring to are please?

 

[WatcherZero]

Payments are lower first five years as they frontload the claimed £350m investment.

But hmm, from the press release...

Transforming the on-board environment with a major refurbishment of Pendolino and Voyager interiors with new seats throughout and improved luggage space

Enhanced catering service offered, with increased at seat catering for customers

Can anyone say replaced by trolley?

 

[philjo]

just seen this page on BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-19265135

FirstGroup's north Wales-London rail improvement pledge

Rail operator FirstGroup says it is "firmly committed" to improving services between north Wales and London after winning the West Coast Mainline franchise from Virgin Rail.

The company, under the name First West Coast Limited, will take over from 9 December and is due to to operate the service until 2026.

It wants to extend services to Bangor from Chester and use longer trains.

Additional evening services will also be provided from 2016.... (more)

It mentions that First are intending to extend some of the Chester services to Bangor and use longer trains.

Presumably this implies that the 11x6 car electric trains will mainly be used on the Edinburgh-Birmingham services to free up Voyagers for the Bangor extensions (& Shrewsbury service)

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

just seen this page on BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-19265135
It mentions that First are intending to extend some of the Chester services to Bangor and use longer trains.
Presumably this implies that the 11x6 car electric trains will mainly be used on the Edinburgh-Birmingham services to free up Voyagers for the Bangor extensions (& Shrewsbury service)

I wonder if anybody has told Arriva Trains Wales...

 

[rail-britain]

It mentions that First are intending to extend some of the Chester services to Bangor and use longer trains

Good old BBC, two points in one sentence!
Yes, extend some services
Yes, longer trains (but not on this route, they will be used on Birmingham - Scotland)

 

[jon0844]

The interview on Sky News stated that they weren't going to bid for any other franchises

More clever marketing. People love the Virgin brand. They love Richard Branson. So, now the people will be sad to see Virgin go and join in the anti-First/anti-Government ranting, which nicely sets up Virgin to announce that it is listening to the people and 'standing' again to run East Coast...

And hoping that the nation will see him as a hero for coming back and taking on the evil companies only interested in running the railway for profit (clearly Virgin Trains was about the people and didn't care for making money).

Wait and see. Virgin won't fail to make a bid. The only situation I can imagine that might really happen is if Stagecoach decides to get out and bid on its own, which might leave Virgin out in the cold - unless it teams up with someone else.

 

[WatcherZero]

Tim O'Toole said on Radio 4 that they are going to increase catering staff, keep the buffet cars and introduce at seat dining on longer distance services.

According to their document they would actually freeze headcount for the first five years while introducing more trains and services. Doesnt say when the 'seating and baggage' increase would occur.

 

[driver_m]

There's a very good reason why some of the staff at picc will be very unhappy. You've got to remember that there are a lot of escapees from first north western and pretty much all of them have horror stories to tell about their time under that regime. It's only natural to be wary of a company where you hear few good things said about them. Before anyone jumps down my throat about how good other parts like FGW/TPE I am totally aware that it boils down to management style at a particular TOC, but at least understand the fear of what may be coming for VT staff especially as no one knows what management is going to be put in place for a while.

 

[Stats]

jPresumably this implies that the 11x6 car electric trains will mainly be used on the Edinburgh-Birmingham services to free up Voyagers for the Bangor extensions (& Shrewsbury service)

That's correct.

From First Group's Press Release
We will add to that capacity through the introduction of 11 new 125mph six-car electric multiple units to operate on Birmingham-Glasgow services, which will free up the Voyager trains to deliver direct services and improve connectivity to even more destinations.

 

[Stonesourscotty]

Will the Bolton trains be Extensions from Piccadilly or Wigan or New Services?

 

[sprinterguy]

Good old BBC, two points in one sentence!
Yes, extend some services
Yes, longer trains (but not on this route, they will be used on Birmingham - Scotland)

New electric trains being introduced on the Birmingham to Scotland route might also allow more doubling up of Voyagers on London to North Wales services, at least as far as Chester. It depends on how many 221s are required to work the additional services to Blackpool and Shrewsbury.

 

[krisk]

Payments are lower first five years as they frontload the claimed £350m investment.

But hmm, from the press release...





Can anyone say replaced by trolley?

No, cant see that anywhere. Some trains you won't get a trolley through

Have to say their proposals were not what I expected

 

[90019]

Standard class could be improved by attaching some Duple buses to the set.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

New electric trains being introduced on the Birmingham to Scotland route might also allow more doubling up of Voyagers on London to North Wales services, at least as far as Chester. It depends on how many 221s are required to work the additional services to Blackpool and Shrewsbury.

Looks to me as though the Blackpool service will start with Voyagers (maybe not frequent) after the four new Pendolinos are fully deployed next year.
It will then go electric with the 2016 changes (Blackpool wired, new short Pendos to Scotland, Norton Bridge upgrade complete), and Voyagers redeployed to Shrewsbury etc.
There ought to be 9-ish Voyagers surplus from Birmingham-Scotland services.

I can't work out what is intended for Bolton, except perhaps for an alternative route for some Preston-London trains via Manchester when the route is wired.

 

[Pen Mill]

Payments are lower first five years as they frontload the claimed £350m investment.

so ,actually , they are not making any investment , the DFT is ?

The way I read this is : First spend the £350m then withold it from their premium payments result = 0 ,or at best a trickle of interest or have I missed something ?

 

[Wath Yard]

Have to say their proposals were not what I expected

And you are the one who kept reminding people that First winning the franchise was only speculation.

Perhaps the fact you are pleasantly surprised with First's proposals demonstrates people should be careful of believing everything they read, especially when some of it originates from people with vested interests.