Your ideas for West Coast Future Stock in 20 years time?

[SkinnyDave]

With the announcement of IEP what do people think will be the next thing for the West Coast in the future?

I think the new franchise has to comit to Voyagers until 2016 and pendos until early 2020s so was just wondering what people thought would be replacement for both of these situations.

 

[fgwrich]

Pendos will stay, Voyagers could be going - hopefully to the XC Franchise if the new operates take up the 'baby' pendo idea of 6 car units.

 

[LE Greys]

Purely speculation, but based on what happened with SNCF stock on parallel routes, Pendys will be run into the ground and still be around in the mid-2040s, working alongside Classic-Compatible stock - depending on if, when and how HS2 reaches Scotland. When they finally get too unreliable to use, again depending on traffic conditions and the fact that most long-distance journeys will now use HS2, their replacement will be fairly Voyager-like. Exactly what it is, how long it is and wheter it retains buffets or goes for trolleys is obviously unknown. It will almost certainly tilt and will probably be able to replace the expected 350s on TPE as well, so it will be a compromise design to satisfy medium-distance and regional express passengers. Also, by this time, the ICWC franchise might well have absorbed TPE-NW and been rolled in with LM, so expect the replacement to work commuter traffic from Euston as well.

Pure speculation though.

 

[sprinterguy]

The Voyagers and Pendolinos are only ten years old, more or less, and we are seeing a discussion here of what could be expected to replace them? Crikey.

It is to be hoped that additional Pendolinos will replace some or all of the Super Voyagers on West Coast after 2016, allowing the 221s to move to Crosscountry.

Actual withdrawal from service of the present West Coast fleet is a long, long way off. The eventual form of the next West Coast fleet is likely to be dictated by experience of the changes in passenger demand that HS2 running to Birmingham and Manchester brings to the West Coast, in the mid 2030s. I can’t see anything happening to the 390s before then, and any such premature change in rolling stock policy would be foolish.

 

[D365]

Electrify the North Wales and replace Voyagers with 5 car "Mini-Pendos". Lengthen all current 9 car units to 11 cars. IEP and HS2 stock probably won't tilt, and 390s aren't/won't be that old, so there's no point in standardising for a while.

Speaking of which, would "Pendo-ising" the MML be a worthwhile investment? And furthermore, won't HS2 eventually render a number of intercity units redundant?
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Whoops, I obviously need to learn how to type quicker! As fgwrich has said, 5/6 car "Baby Pendos" and electrification of the North Wales Coast Line would be great. An Irish Tunnel from Holyhead to Dublin is one of my little fantasies, connecting to an upgraded North Wales Coast Line.

 

[HSTEd]

The current stock will continue on at least until HS2 Phase 1, at which point the Birmingham-Scotland Voyagers will be partly replaced by 9-car Pendolinos released by a reduction (from 3tph to 1tph continuing to Wolverhampton and Glasgow as the aforementioned service) in the conventional ICWC services between London and Birmingham.

Once HS2 Phase 2 is completed all remaining Voyagers on all wired routes will be displaced, possibly joined by ones that currently turn back at Chester if the electrification is extended that far.

It is highly likely that Manchester ICWC trains will go to 1tph as well, probably via Stoke and Macclesfield, providing more stock for the above.

No new stock for ICWC, certainly no "Baby-Pendos".

 

[sprinterguy]

No new stock for ICWC, certainly no "Baby-Pendos".

I think that that is very much up to the bidders of the new West Coast franchise to decide on. I don’t think that at this stage the introduction of additional Pendolinos being added to the West Coast franchise can be ruled out. Alstom certainly seem to have been reported to be offering a 6-car Pendolino variant.

 

[HSTEd]

I think that that is very much up to the bidders of the new West Coast franchise to decide on. I don’t think that at this stage the introduction of additional Pendolinos being added to the West Coast franchise can be ruled out. Alstom certainly seem to have been reported to be offering a 6-car Pendolino variant.

It can't quite be ruled out, but ordering new electrics when in ten years we will have a huge surplus of tilting electrics seems to be the height of irresponsibility from where I am sitting.

If HS2 goes ahead there is no business case.

 

[D365]

That's what I was thinking, but could any surplus be transferred to an electrified MML?

 

[sprinterguy]

It can't quite be ruled out, but ordering new electrics when in ten years we will have a huge surplus of tilting electrics seems to be the height of irresponsibility from where I am sitting.

If HS2 goes ahead there is no business case.

In the application of a long term rolling stock strategy I agree that there is little financial basis in ordering additional Pendolinos in 2016, when sufficient existing rolling stock is likely to become available ten years later to replace the 221s that presently run under the wires following the implementation of the first stage of HS2.

However, whether such a strategy is borne out in practice is dependent on how far the West Coast bidders follow the DfTs’ instruction to support the development of HS2 and whether they consider beyond their own franchise end date.
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That's what I was thinking, but could any surplus be transferred to an electrified MML?

If Midland Mainline electrification is carried out at the end of the CP5 period as is expected, even if it is not entirely completed by 2020, then that is going to be quite a long wait between the wires being ready for service and displaced Pendolinos being available for use, assuming that there would be enough of them. I suppose the MML could use Bi-mode 222s in the interim.

 

[HSTEd]

If we were to assume an electric timetable of.....

1tph Liverpool [Stafford, Runcorn] - 2hr10 - 6 sets
1tph Manchester [Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport] 2hr08 - 6 sets
1tph Glasgow (direct) [Warrington BQ, Wigan NW, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme LD/Penrith, Carlisle] - 4hr30 - 11 sets
1tph Glasgow/Edinburgh (via Birmingham) [Rugby, Coventry, Birmingham Int, Birmingham NS, Sandwell and Dudley, Wolverhampton, Crewe, Warrington BQ, Wigan NW, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme LD/Penrith, Carlisle, Glasgow/Edinburgh W] - 5hr30, 13 sets

That comes to roughly 36 sets, rather less than the 56 we have now, and with the Chester/Holyhead Voyagers added on it maintains service to pretty much everywhere served by ICWC right now apart from Wilmslow.

If Chester is electrified we get closer to needing the entire Pendo fleet but we will have surplus either way.

 

[VTPreston_Tez]

If we were to assume an electric timetable of.....

1tph Liverpool [Stafford, Runcorn] - 2hr10 - 6 sets
1tph Manchester [Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport] 2hr08 - 6 sets
1tph Glasgow (direct) [Warrington BQ, Wigan NW, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme LD/Penrith, Carlisle] - 4hr30 - 11 sets
1tph Glasgow/Edinburgh (via Birmingham) [Rugby, Coventry, Birmingham Int, Birmingham NS, Sandwell and Dudley, Wolverhampton, Crewe, Warrington BQ, Wigan NW, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme LD/Penrith, Carlisle, Glasgow/Edinburgh W] - 5hr30, 13 sets

That comes to roughly 36 sets, rather less than the 56 we have now, and with the Chester/Holyhead Voyagers added on it maintains service to pretty much everywhere served by ICWC right now apart from Wilmslow.

If Chester is electrified we get closer to needing the entire Pendo fleet but we will have surplus either way.

You'll also need to count the Preston stopper which calls at Watford, Tamworth, Lichfield, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, and Preston at night and the Rugby caller earlier in the evening. If there is surplus I would expect both services to be operated by 9 car Pendos and both call at Milton Keynes.
With these services in operation, and Chester electrified I think the next TOC will keep all of their Pendolinos and maybe even a few Voyagers for Holyhead services (provided they're not getting hauled from Crewe/Chester by a 57)

 

[JohnB57]

An Irish Tunnel from Holyhead to Dublin is one of my little fantasies, connecting to an upgraded North Wales Coast Line.

Do you think the Channel Tunnel would have been built if track gauge in France was 1600mm?

We all need our personal fantasies, but this is about as likely to remain one as any I've heard of! My £25m lottery win seems positively guaranteed by comparison...

 

[mallard]

Do you think the Channel Tunnel would have been built if track gauge in France was 1600mm?

The gauge problem isn't insurmountable, gauge-changing trains exist, and for bigger gauge differences. Of course, the business case...

 

[WatcherZero]

Modern Rail is claiming Virgin are tempted by an Alstom offer of 6 car bi-mode mini pendolinos (bi-mode by having non-retractable couplers and a fleet of diesel locomotives to pull them offwire) offering maintenence savings from fleet uniformity which would operate the non-electrified routes and would have the capability of being doubled up to operate the core routes, they would release their Voyagers to other franchises.

 

[tbtc]

It really depends on the franchise map. Will "West Coast" include routes like Manchester - Glasgow? In which case there's scope for some 110/125mph EMUs roughly six coaches long for the "secondary" routes (Birmingham/Manchester to Glasgow/Edinburgh, London to Chester with a couple of "drags" to Holyhead, potential new services like London to Blackpool and maybe even some longer distance LM services like Birmingham to Liverpool etc).

If not then I expect no change. No point in daydreaming about additional electrification in the next few years as there's plenty to keep the teams busy elsewhere in the UK.

 

[DXMachina]

I imagine any order given to Bombardier for pantograph cars will shine far more light on future stock availability than we currently can see by. The disposition of the Cl.222 after MML wires go up will tell a lot.

 

[whhistle]

The current stock will continue on at least until HS2 Phase 1, at which point the Birmingham-Scotland Voyagers will be partly replaced by 9-car Pendolinos.

Once HS2 Phase 2 is completed all remaining Voyagers on all wired routes will be displaced, possibly joined by ones that currently turn back at Chester if the electrification is extended that far.

No new stock for ICWC, certainly no "Baby-Pendos".

And your source for all this is.... ?

 

[jopsuk]

I imagine any order given to Bombardier for pantograph cars will shine far more light on future stock availability than we currently can see by. The disposition of the Cl.222 after MML wires go up will tell a lot.

If Pantograph cars are added to 222s (to make them bimode), could a future step be to then remove all the diesel gubbins?

 

[HSTEd]

And your source for all this is.... ?

The fact that it makes no sense to do anything else?

Pretty soon they will be swimming in tilting electric stock, ordering new ones makes no sense.

 

[ainsworth74]

Still probably worth drawing a distinction between what you think will happen and anything that's been announced I'd have thought?

 

[LE Greys]

Still probably worth drawing a distinction between what you think will happen and anything that's been announced I'd have thought?

I also think we need to consider lines that will be more likely to be in the next renewal cycle after the IEP, namely those that still use entirely BR stock. 'Futurology' such as this depends on a lot of things, especially the success of HS2. There are various possible outcomes, from 'total takeover' to 'total failure'. If the former, the WCML will be a secondary route and heavily downgraded, but still with 125mph tilting stock. If the latter, then it will remain a major route with some form of 'Super Pendy' or replacement, possibly faster, definitely longer and still with full on-board facilities. It just might be replaced earlier, allowing a Pendy cascade to the MML and GEML (although whether they retain tilt if that happens is impossible to say). Most likely, it will be somewhere in-between.

 

[tbtc]

If Pantograph cars are added to 222s (to make them bimode), could a future step be to then remove all the diesel gubbins?

The fact that it makes no sense to do anything else?

Pretty soon they will be swimming in tilting electric stock, ordering new ones makes no sense.

On the one hand we have the suggestion of converting 222s to "all electric" (removing the diesel), on the other we have the suggestion that there will be too many fast electric trains (so no need for any more).

Bi-mode 222s would suit the Paddington - Cornwall services (which will never be fully electrified) or XC.

 

[LE Greys]

On the one hand we have the suggestion of converting 222s to "all electric" (removing the diesel), on the other we have the suggestion that there will be too many fast electric trains (so no need for any more).

Bi-mode 222s would suit the Paddington - Cornwall services (which will never be fully electrified) or XC.

If its XC, that will mean either service expansion or additional coaches. That might leave XC with a surplus of 170s, assuming Voyagers cascade to other routes. Added to the inevitable Scotrail cascade, they might end up anywhere, possibly on routes which don't require a full 100mph. Possible deployments abroad?

 

[HSTEd]

It might be possible to fit the ZF Mechanical transmission from the 172s to the Class 170s that are redundant, which should give them improved acceleration.

At which point there are endless sprinters to get rid of.

 

[tbtc]

If its XC, that will mean either service expansion or additional coaches. That might leave XC with a surplus of 170s, assuming Voyagers cascade to other routes. Added to the inevitable Scotrail cascade, they might end up anywhere, possibly on routes which don't require a full 100mph. Possible deployments abroad?

There's certainly scope for XC to run doubled up service on the "core" of their "X" - hopefully 222s could help with that.

 

[IanXC]

Does anyone know enough about the TMS to know whether there is any advantage in using the 222 fleet for the eVoyager project rather than the 220 fleet?

 

[ainsworth74]

The TMS on 222s seems to be a bit less picky about formations. I'm led to believe that on a 222 if you want to change the formation of a set it's basically just a case of sticking the extra vehicles in and away you go.

 

[172212]

Pendos will stay I reckon. I heard something about Voyagers being converted to electric power output, so maybe this could extend their longevity

 

[HSTEd]

You'll also need to count the Preston stopper which calls at Watford, Tamworth, Lichfield, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, and Preston at night and the Rugby caller earlier in the evening. If there is surplus I would expect both services to be operated by 9 car Pendos and both call at Milton Keynes.
With these services in operation, and Chester electrified I think the next TOC will keep all of their Pendolinos and maybe even a few Voyagers for Holyhead services (provided they're not getting hauled from Crewe/Chester by a 57)

Are those hourly services or just occasional ones?
Even so Preston is not actually that far north so there would still be a 10 or more set surplus.