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Will the Chiltern 68s continue beyond the May 2022 Timetable Change?

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HamworthyGoods

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No I wouldn't be happy if the locos were left idling all night, it would be bad for noise and for unnecessary emissions. However, firstly this isn't the case at Marylebone; they aren't idling there all night and in the case of Scarborough why not just switch them off overnight rather than leaving them running idle?

Because as part of the Daily Preparation of the locos circa 4AM for the start of the service you have to start them up at Scarborough.
 
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tomuk

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Bearing in mind one of the objectives of this exercise is to reduce the expenditure on paying fines for emissions breaches in Marylebone from the 68s that seems a bizarre idea.
What fines? No railway operator an be fined for noise pollution they have a statutory defence.
 

JonathanH

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As an aside, does the DfT even have the power to rip them off Grand Central without compo seeing as they're open access?
Clearly not while a binding contract is in place between the rolling stock leasing company and the open access operator but at the expiry of a lease it could be quite possible.
 

Clansman

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Clearly not while a binding contract is in place between the rolling stock leasing company and the open access operator but at the expiry of a lease it could be quite possible.
Hence why it is yet another business related reason that trumps crayonistic jigsaw puzzling of rolling stock across the network.
 

Mitchell Hurd

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What about 222's from EMR to replace the Mark 3's once they get their 810's? I read about that being a possibility (I think) in a rail magazine definitely over a year back!

Are 222's lighter than the Mark 3's and 68's?

222's from EMR could quite easily mean Chiltern operates longer 168 formations!
 

The Planner

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Lets be realistic here, they aren't going to get any replacements for them unless by some miracle DfT/Treasury mandated service cuts elsewhere releases some units. That chances of that are slim at best and even then it has got to be something they can train up on. maintain and stable in the short term.
 

swt_passenger

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What about 222's from EMR to replace the Mark 3's once they get their 810's? I read about that being a possibility (I think) in a rail magazine definitely over a year back!

Are 222's lighter than the Mark 3's and 68's?

222's from EMR could quite easily mean Chiltern operates longer 168 formations!
Was that an editorial in a reputable magazine, or on a letters page? I’d put 222s for Chiltern way down a very long list of options for all the reasons mentioned in these forums before, basically summed up as them being “a hammer to crack a nut”…
 

Mollman

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What about 222's from EMR to replace the Mark 3's once they get their 810's? I read about that being a possibility (I think) in a rail magazine definitely over a year back!

Are 222's lighter than the Mark 3's and 68's?

222's from EMR could quite easily mean Chiltern operates longer 168 formations!
I seem to recall that Hull Train's 222s were too heavy to run at HST speeds between Selby and Temple Hirst Jnc but it could just be my memory playing up!
 

Meerkat

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In the new allegedly splendid world of GBR I imagine the Treasury will tell Chiltern they don't need the 68/mk3 London-Birmingham capacity as they are to increase prices and stop undercutting the WCML.
 

D365

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In the new allegedly splendid world of GBR I imagine the Treasury will tell Chiltern they don't need the 68/mk3 London-Birmingham capacity as they are to increase prices and stop undercutting the WCML.
Yes I’m sure that’d do modal shift a whole world of good.
 

Anonymous10

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Treasury shrugs and asks whether it maximises revenue.
which makes more 10 people paying £15 or 7 people paying £20 ultimately to alot of people commuting they want the cheapest way to work that gets them there on time in a degree of comfort
 

Meerkat

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which makes more 10 people paying £15 or 7 people paying £20 ultimately to alot of people commuting they want the cheapest way to work that gets them there on time in a degree of comfort
You are just making up numbers!
And ignoring that your 10 people are on two different trains, whereas the 7 people would be on one train with the other one off lease and uncrewed.
 

Anonymous10

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You are just making up numbers!
And ignoring that your 10 people are on two different trains, whereas the 7 people would be on one train with the other one off lease and uncrewed.
my numbers are made up to keep things simple my point is is more people would buy a ticket if its cheap thus its great to say well they can use that other toc and line but if the cost shoots up no one actually will of course thats my opinion
 

Meerkat

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my numbers are made up to keep things simple my point is is more people would buy a ticket if its cheap thus its great to say well they can use that other toc and line but if the cost shoots up no one actually will of course thats my opinion
More people doesn't mean more revenue if the price is cut too much.
Whereas the Treasury is probably thinking of dumping the lease costs of the 68/mk3s and getting most of the passengers to pay more on the WCML, using capacity that is otherwise probably empty.
And they can always say they are taking people off nasty diesels and onto green electric!
 

Anonymous10

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More people doesn't mean more revenue if the price is cut too much.
Whereas the Treasury is probably thinking of dumping the lease costs of the 68/mk3s and getting most of the passengers to pay more on the WCML, using capacity that is otherwise probably empty.
And they can always say they are taking people off nasty diesels and onto green electric!
thats great but most people do not appreciate having the cheap option taken away and forced to pay up to double the price the ideal solution would be 1 increase Chilterns cost slightly 2 decrease cost slightly on wcml 3 use more economical stock on chiltern services
 

Meerkat

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thats great but most people do not appreciate having the cheap option taken away and forced to pay up to double the price the ideal solution would be 1 increase Chilterns cost slightly 2 decrease cost slightly on wcml 3 use more economical stock on chiltern services
The ideal solution for the passenger is not the same as the ideal solution for those paying the bills (which is indirectly the taxpayer of course)
It doesnt make sense to subsidise an expensive way of getting people to Birmingham if you have space on a cheaper way that you are also subsidising.
 

73128

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Another big loss for Chiltern will be the almost complete loss of tourists going to Bicester Village shopping centre which pre Covid would have kept their off-peak Oxford services bus.
There appear to be already increasing numbers going back to Bicester Village and i imagine that by 2024 this will be buoyant again. There is also a lot of Midlands to and from London traffic still, particularly off peak and weekends.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

This is thing that has to be remembered when talking about Chiltern's "intercity" aspirations. There's no point in them investing time and money in the London-Birmingham express market long-term. Their fleet and service plans need to be tailored to the intermediate markets along that route, not end-to-end traffic.
Isn't it still down to price competition for the long trip? And there are plenty of people around Solihull, Warwick and Leamington to go south; and in the Chilterns area around High Wycombe area going north for whom HS2 won't really suit...
 

Mikey C

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You'd assume that EWR will create a little bit more traffic for Chiltern as well.
 

JonathanH

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You'd assume that EWR will create a little bit more traffic for Chiltern as well.
That will depend on whether people decide to interchange at Bicester Village or Bletchley, neither of which are on a straight line from Winslow to London.

Firstly that is some time away and secondly it doesn't look like a major traffic generation opportunity.
 

XAM2175

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And there are plenty of people around Solihull, Warwick and Leamington to go south; and in the Chilterns area around High Wycombe area going north for whom HS2 won't really suit...
These are still the intermediate markets to which I referred. Chiltern should absolutely continue to connect these places with both Birmingham and London, but they have far less of a long-term need to connect Birmingham and London with eachother.

I can't speak for future Government policy on pricing between Chiltern, the WCML, and HS2, but I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that the days of Chiltern trying to abstract revenue from WCML operators purely out of a sense of competitiveness should be put behind us.
 

Meerkat

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I can't speak for future Government policy on pricing between Chiltern, the WCML, and HS2, but I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that the days of Chiltern trying to abstract revenue from WCML operators purely out of a sense of competitiveness should be put behind us.
That depends on whether you look at it as a taxpayer/The Treasury or as a traveller hoping to get cheap tickets!
Certainly running fast trains using expensive stock is pushing it a bit. Making the through trains stop more makes more sense.
 

Mikey C

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That will depend on whether people decide to interchange at Bicester Village or Bletchley, neither of which are on a straight line from Winslow to London.

Firstly that is some time away and secondly it doesn't look like a major traffic generation opportunity.
Not major numbers yes, but there will also be a bit of traffic between Chiltern stations such as High Wycombe and Milton Keynes
 

XCTurbostar

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So in light of the clear result that 68s clearly *have* continued into the May 2022 timetable, is there any evidence at all to suggest that the end is near for this fleet?
 

JonathanH

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So in light of the clear result that 68s clearly *have* continued into the May 2022 timetable, is there any evidence at all to suggest that the end is near for this fleet?
They were never meant to end at the May 2022 timetable. The discussion was that the DfT wanted them withdrawn after the end of the Commonwealth Games, which end at the start of August.

Suggestion elsewhere is that they may stay a little longer as the contract with DRS is on a rolling six-month basis but it is clearly in the gift of the DfT as to whether they go sooner rather than later.
 

Mitchell Hurd

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Is it because of the lease that these are kind of due to be withdrawn? If they go then Chiltern Railways will have several seats left which will not be popular with passengers!
 

JonathanH

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Is it because of the lease that these are kind of due to be withdrawn? If they go then Chiltern Railways will have several seats left which will not be popular with passengers!
The issues with the 68+stock are:
* Noise
* Cost
* Age of the coaches

The proportionate cut in capacity across the fleet if they go isn't that much - the coaches represent about 10% of the fleet.
 
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