What if Labour had won again in 1978/79?

[AY1975]

Following on from the thread about what would have happened if Thatcher had survived 1990 and rail privatisation hadn’t happened at www.railforums.co.uk/threads/long-live-br-an-alternate-history-story.157133/, I thought I’d start another “what if” thread.

It has often been said that if Labour Prime Minister James Callaghan had called a General Election in the autumn of 1978, rather than wait until 1979, he would probably have won again. If Labour had been re-elected in, say, October 1978, how different do you think things would have been for the railways in the years since 1978/79?

See also my thread on What if Labour leader John Smith hadn't died in 1994 at www.railforums.co.uk/threads/what-if-labour-leader-john-smith-hadnt-died-in-1994.157822/

 

[Helvellyn]

This is a difficult one.

The 1979 Labour manifesto has this to say on railways: -

Under Labour, there will never be another Beeching. We will maintain the present rail network and increase investment in the future. As much freight as possible must be carried by rail; and the scheme whereby companies receive grants for installing railway facilities will be extended.​

The 1979 Conservative manifesto has nothing to say on railways!

The BR Chairman during the 1979-83 period was Sir Peter Parker, appointed by Labour in 1976. So there wasn't any change of leadership that a Labour government could have influenced.

There was the Serpell Report which wouldn't have happened, but that was set up in response to effectively continuous decline in passenger numbers. Sir Peter Parker led a successful fight against that. He also laid the foundations for sectorisation which could be said to the start of BR getting on a proper commercial footing rather than remaining with a structure still heavily influenced by the old 'big four' companies plus Scotland.

Sir Peter Parker famously said he was fighting, "the crumbling edge of quality", yet sectorisation was the start of BR really trying to turn that around. Would that have happened under Labour or would have been more of the same with the continuation of the blue & grey era?

 

[AY1975]

I guess there are umpteen possible permutations and combinations of governments that we could have had since then if Labour had won again in 1978 or '79.

If Labour had won again in autumn 1978, Thatcher might have resigned as Tory leader, or tried again in 1982 or '83. If the 1978/79 winter of discontent had still happened, and the failure of the 1979 Scottish and Welsh devolution referenda had also still happened, but Labour had been re-elected with a bigger majority, even if only slightly bigger, they would more likely have survived a vote of no confidence.

Then there is the question of whether the 1982 Falklands conflict would still have happened under Labour, and the NUR/ASLEF flexible rostering dispute which happened shortly afterwards, and what those would have done to Labour's fortunes.