UK rail in 2025 - your predictions

[LNW-GW Joint]

Strangely, Avanti being stripped of its contract hasn't figured so far.
They seem to have moved off the bottom rung of the TOC performance ladder.

I hope we will finally see the size and shape of GBR during the year (ie geographical regions v business sectors), if not its final form.
While all the attention is at the TOC end, I will be interested how they plan to "abolish" Network Rail.
There will be plenty of water going under the HS2 bridge before the cost saga (just Phase 1) plays out beyond the "pick a number" stage.
The Rail Enhancements Pipeline document will finally be published - but with too many caveats to be useful to the supply chain.

 

[stevieinselby]

Waymo's could be very good for the railways, as they will solve the "final mile" problem for many train journeys. Which is an opportunity that the railway should be including in its long-term planning, especially around station design and siting, though no sign of that thinking yet - and I don't expect it to until people can see and experience autonomous taxis for themselves.

But without having to cover the cost of a driver in every vehicle, I can see the Waymo effect having a negative impact on places like the Barton-on-Humber branch line. Why spend millions a year on subsidising uneconomic branch lines, when robotaxis can provide a better service at less cost?

Sure, driverless vehicles save on the cost of the driver, but the tech is very expensive (at least for the moment), so how much cheaper will they be to operate? Once you get past the loss leader prices that their parasitical venture capitalist backers will insist on to start with.

The answer to the last mile problem is connecting transport, whether that's regular buses, on-demand minibuses or taxis, depending on the nature of the catchment. Whether a vehicle has a human driver or a robopilot makes very little difference to the efficacy or appeal of these services. A driverless taxi is still a taxi – a taxi that you book through an app is still a taxi – the way some people talk about these things, you would think that mankind had invented a revolutionary new way to travel akin to teleporting, rather than just poured a load of money into corporatising the humble minicab. And how many of these things are there likely to be hanging around Barton-on-Humber, Gunnislake and Betws-y-Coed ready to spring into action when someone wants to travel? Bustitution didn't work 60 years ago, taxification won't work now. About 100 people a day catch a train from Barton-on-Humber, and I'm sure they won't be spread evenly across the 8 daily services – very unlikely that a company like Waymo would be remotely interested in deploying enough robotaxis to meet the demand currently met by the railway to a rural backwater for such small and sporadic numbers.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Dec 2024 ==

I find the idea that passengers will choose a payment method due to convenience, over discounts quite unlikely

When you look at what people will pay for convenience over anything involving the tiniest but of effort (or human contact) in all other areas of life, I think it's a nailed on certainty...

 

[yorksrob]

Sure, driverless vehicles save on the cost of the driver, but the tech is very expensive (at least for the moment), so how much cheaper will they be to operate? Once you get past the loss leader prices that their parasitical venture capitalist backers will insist on to start with.

The answer to the last mile problem is connecting transport, whether that's regular buses, on-demand minibuses or taxis, depending on the nature of the catchment. Whether a vehicle has a human driver or a robopilot makes very little difference to the efficacy or appeal of these services. A driverless taxi is still a taxi – a taxi that you book through an app is still a taxi – the way some people talk about these things, you would think that mankind had invented a revolutionary new way to travel akin to teleporting, rather than just poured a load of money into corporatising the humble minicab. And how many of these things are there likely to be hanging around Barton-on-Humber, Gunnislake and Betws-y-Coed ready to spring into action when someone wants to travel? Bustitution didn't work 60 years ago, taxification won't work now. About 100 people a day catch a train from Barton-on-Humber, and I'm sure they won't be spread evenly across the 8 daily services – very unlikely that a company like Waymo would be remotely interested in deploying enough robotaxis to meet the demand currently met by the railway to a rural backwater for such small and sporadic numbers.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Dec 2024 ==


When you look at what people will pay for convenience over anything involving the tiniest but of effort (or human contact) in all other areas of life, I think it's a nailed on certainty...

As opposed to a third off our current fares ?

I doubt it.

I think that the powers that be continually underestimate the effect of pricing on rail popularity

 

[Nottingham59]

Sure, driverless vehicles save on the cost of the driver, but the tech is very expensive (at least for the moment), so how much cheaper will they be to operate?

Dunno. But less that a taxi or Uber that has to cover the cost of the driver, however badly paid. And much cheaper than poorly loaded trains.

Note the "taxi" for the local transport market may end up being a pod or a golf buggy or similar, that can get you to and from the nearest transit stop or local town centre, and not the full monty capable of motorway journeys.

The cost is coming down all the time:

"The Chinese leader is Baidu, which now claims to be doing 75,000 autonomous robotaxi rides per week, with 70-80% having no safety driver. That’s a clear #2 behind Waymo. They also announced their new custom Robotaxi design which they claim they can build for around $28,000 in China, including LIDARs and other extra gear. "

Robocars 2024 In Review: Top Ten Stories And More

It was a year of tumult, with success and major failures. Let's count down the top self-driving stories of 2024

www.forbes.com

 

[Sonic1234]

Project Oval goes live and is very popular, with the number of TVMs and the booking office hours at relevant stations heavily reduced but nobody really complains bar the unions. Sales of paper tickets and e-tickets go through the floor on these routes and income increases due to people choosing the convenience over Railcard discounts etc.

Very likely. People love contactless, because they believe it to be cheapest and for the convenience. Paper tickets will still exist, after all, they still exist within the London Zones (how many journeys entirely within Zone 1-6 are done using paper? There are some niche cases for doing so). Ticket offices won't close yet for political reasons, although suburban ticket offices already have a staff boredom problem.

People already choose contactless over the savings of a super off peak on Thameslink at the weekend. Contactless psychologically separates travelling and paying for travel, you tap the magic card and off you go. A few days later there is an aggregated charge on a bank statement which is probably not read. Yes, you can look up fares and register with TfL to see the cost of each journey, but how many do? Do many Oyster users check the displays telling them the cost and compare it to the expected cost? It makes travelling by train more like car travel, where no one knows what an individual journey costs. The other extreme, paying cash at a ticket office, makes you very aware of the cost of a journey.

Reduction in TVMs seems to be an Intercity thing, was shocked how few TVMs there are at Paddington now. SWR and GTR stations, even the metro ones, are still full of them.

 

[vuzzeho]

GBR's structure will be announced in March, and rebranding will happen with DOHL operators.
DOHL operators won't do anything exciting before the rebranding so that they can say 'look at how GBR has made everything great!'
Virgin Trains Open Access will be approved.
EWR will be popular from launch, and suddenly people will start to discuss a rebuild of Milton Keynes Central.
Waymo will seem like a massive disruptor, but won't really disrupt much.
GWR retro livery IET - FGW or GWT.

 

[eldomtom2]

GWR retro livery IET - FGW or GWT.

I doubt that. FirstGroup like to hide their involvement. If there is a retro liivery IET it'll either be chocolate and cream or Intercity Swallow.

 

[The Planner]

Virgin Trains Open Access will be approved.

I'll have a tenner on that not happening.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

I'll have a tenner on that not happening.

I’ll have twenty

 

[Krokodil]

I'll stick my house on passenger VTOL drones not becoming a threat to the rail network within my lifetime.

 

[Topological]

There will be more days when the TfW Mk4 schedule has 1 or more diagrams fail to complete the full schedule than days when all 5 diagrams complete as Mk4 without incident.

(Full schedule means as set out currently. Planned swaps mean that not all 5 diagrams have completed their full schedule)

 

[Chiltern006]

Southeastern announce a retro livery NSE 465

 

[Discuss223]

Hi all,

Wondering what you think might be the main stories around UK rail in the coming year? Obv the nationalisation of SWR, C2C, Greater Anglia around summer/autumn. Any suggestion that Chiltern and Govia Thameslink might also be taken over in 2025 given contracts expire then?

Any ideas what might happen re HS2, with Jon Thompson stepping down?

Also feels like Labour/union clashes over Sunday working are inevitable. Thoughts?

These are my predictions, not what I want to happen or what should happen*.

The Nottingham bridge closure trial will be deemed a "success", owing to carefully worded customer surveys and will be made a permanent feature.


A system will be trialled and gradually rolled out where customers tap their bank card on ticket gates and tap off and their fare is automatically calculated and payment taken from their bank.


Sheffield station will see more human revenue barriers, ahead of the inevitable introduction of permanent gates when the right of way bridge replacement is introduced.


Andy Burnham will make vain attempts to take over Northern services in Greater Manchester, as part of the "Bee Network", this will rightfully be blocked by the Office Of Rail & Road.


Some of the Class 222s will go to Grand Central, which would actually be a good idea. The rest will be retained by EMR on a short term basis to account for any teething problems with the 810s.

The 70 minute "Flex" (haha the irony of that name) tickets will be rolled out further and to other operators, in a bid to reduce flexibility with rail travel and make it more similar to coach and airline travel.

The GC 221s will go to CrossCountry, along with the rest of the ex-Avanti units.

At stations, we will continue to see a phasing out of SSP original brands, such as Pumpkin, Whistle Stop & Cafe Ritazza and SSP will look to collaborate with more identifiable brands such as Pret A Manger, Leon & Slim Chickens.

 

[vuzzeho]

A system will be trialled and gradually rolled out where customers tap their bank card on ticket gates and tap off and their fare is automatically calculated and payment taken from their bank.

Project Oval?

Andy Burnham will make vain attempts to take over Northern services in Greater Manchester, as part of the "Bee Network", this will rightfully be blocked by the Office Of Rail & Road.

Isn't this government incredibly supportive of that happening?

 

[Magdalia]

Andy Burnham will make vain attempts to take over Northern services in Greater Manchester, as part of the "Bee Network", this will rightfully be blocked by the Office Of Rail & Road.

Isn't this government incredibly supportive of that happening?

This is what was said in section 3.3 of the recently published devolution White Paper:

Great British Railways will put passengers and local communities back at the heart of the railways and protect their interests – integrating the railways with other forms of transport to support seamless journeys for passengers. This will be underpinned by:

• Engagement with Strategic Authorities on how local rail ambitions can be reflected in the national rail planning processes, including through mayoral partnerships, building on the progress already made with Greater Manchester and the West Midlands.
• A statutory role for Mayors in governing, managing, planning, and developing the rail network, to further embed collaboration and bring decision-making as close as possible to local communities. We will consult on this role ahead of the legislation required to establish the functions of Great British Railways. Subject to royal assent, we will publish guidance outlining the core components that each tier of Strategic Authority can expect, reflecting the need for this to be flexible, place-based, and bespoke.

 

[778]

Southeastern Metro services could be handed over to TFL in 2025.

 

[Bevan Price]

These are my predictions, not what I want to happen or what should happen*.


A system will be trialled and gradually rolled out where customers tap their bank card on ticket gates and tap off and their fare is automatically calculated and payment taken from their bank.

MPs will start to be bombarded with complaints about "devious" ways of increasing the cost of rail travel, and eventually the system will be changed to make travel more affordable.