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Thoughts for 2022. How have they panned out?

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Jacob Porrett

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Crossrail/Elizabeth Line will open this year?

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WMR Class 196s will enter service which means all the 170s will transfer to EMR?
 
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QSK19

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WMR Class 196s will enter service which means all the 170s will transfer to EMR?
Mid-year apparently; but I just hope that it’s not another 360 situation whereby the previous TOC runs them into the ground and EMR’s passengers have to put up with yet more trains in poor condition.

On the note of EMR, a prediction that I have is that the refurbishment programme finally commences - 360s to start mid-year and the 170s in Q3. I also predict that we will see the first 810 roll off the line and it’s going to pleasantly surprise us.
 

Jacob Porrett

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Mid-year apparently; but I just hope that it’s not another 360 situation whereby the previous TOC runs them into the ground and EMR’s passengers have to put up with yet more trains in poor condition.

On the note of EMR, a prediction that I have is that the refurbishment programme finally commences - 360s to start mid-year and the 170s in Q3. I also predict that we will see the first 810 roll off the line and it’s going to pleasantly surprise us.
Hopefully the 170/5s will get the interior refurb they deserve after being with Central Trains, London Midland and now West Midlands Trains without having the interior done. Hopefully EMR can do this along with the 170/4s as well (ex scot rail) because they need an interior refurb as well.
 

43096

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Counter prediction: They are just as dreadful as every other 80x. It's a flawed design.
But we already know that they will have different seats; they're using a variant of that used in the Greater Anglia FLIRTs and it's been extensively reported on in Modern Railways with Ian Walmsley being positive about them. As the single biggest issue (and there are many) with the 80x units from the passenger's perspective is the seats, I'm cautiously optimistic that these will be better than previous Hitachi offerings.
 

FLIRTfan18

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Hopefully the 170/5s will get the interior refurb they deserve after being with Central Trains, London Midland and now West Midlands Trains without having the interior done. Hopefully EMR can do this along with the 170/4s as well (ex scot rail) because they need an interior refurb as well.
They've had a refurb since Central Trains days haven't they? The current interior is London Midland. Central trains had purple seats and lighter green handrails etc...
 

Jacob Porrett

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They've had a refurb since Central Trains days haven't they? The current interior is London Midland. Central trains had purple seats and lighter green handrails etc...
Ah right ok. They need updating again though because they are in a bad state at the moment.
 

Neptune

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They've had a refurb since Central Trains days haven't they? The current interior is London Midland. Central trains had purple seats and lighter green handrails etc...
I think it was more of a refresh than a refurb. Seat covers and carpets only I believe.
 

dan5324

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I suspect that further hikes in petrol prices - and periods of none to be had as we saw last year - will lead to a sustained switch to rail travel.
Even with the current prices traffic isn’t falling. And I highly doubt even with todays high fuel prices, it would be any cheaper by snail rail.
 

Goldfish62

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Even with the current prices traffic isn’t falling. And I highly doubt even with todays high fuel prices, it would be any cheaper by snail rail.
Traffic levels won't fall because too many people suffer from Car Dependency.
 

dan5324

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Traffic levels won't fall because too many people suffer from Car Dependency.
Or because the alternatives are utter pants? Trains are terrible, unreliable and expensive for what you get. Buses are slow, non existent and terrible.
 

dan5324

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The first two can be explained by cars blocking the roads they use. If there were less cars, they'd be on time, and by extension, wouldn't be cancelled as much.
Never said they weren’t necessarily on time. Just slow. Due to constantly stopping, following timetables and being a bus its….well slow.
 

Non Multi

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The first two can be explained by cars blocking the roads they use. If there were less cars, they'd be on time, and by extension, wouldn't be cancelled as much.
Also circuitous bus routes: Whilst they keep services financially viable by passing through more places, they also drive away custom with lengthy journey times.
 

MattRat

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Also circuitous bus routes: Whilst they keep services financially viable by passing through more places, they also drive away custom with lengthy journey times.
They have to pick up as many passengers as possible, because there are so few to begin with.

The bus companies, for the most part, aren't in the wrong, it's the world around them that causes problems that they don't have the power to change.
 

The Ham

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They have to pick up as many passengers as possible, because there are so few to begin with.

The bus companies, for the most part, aren't in the wrong, it's the world around them that causes problems that they don't have the power to change.

Sometimes it's the fault of councils.

I once worked on a significant development where the council wanted one route to be extended from a nearby site to serve the bigger site. We had to push quite hard with the suggestion of extending a different service from the far side of town so that the new site had a more direct (faster) connection to the town. In addition it would serve the hospital as well. Once we talked to the bus company they agreed with us and thought it was a good plan.

As soon as the bus company started saying that our idea was a good one the council changed their tune.
 

liamf656

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Buses are slow, non existent and terrible.
And expensive. Even with the fuel prices it's cheaper, comfortable and more reliable for me to drive and park in town than it is to get the bus. My local operator is beyond useless at the moment

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

On the note of EMR, a prediction that I have is that the refurbishment programme finally commences - 360s to start mid-year and the 170s in Q3. I also predict that we will see the first 810 roll off the line and it’s going to pleasantly surprise us.
360s to begin in Q3 apparently, with the first one being done at the end of this year/start of next, with 2+2 seating planned. With this in mind, I'd expect the 170s to get refurbished next year, though I really hope the 170/5s go first. They're much filthier, tatty (not helped by passengers ripping seats/tables out in a handful of units) and they're simply too green inside...!
 

The Ham

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And expensive. Even with the fuel prices it's cheaper, comfortable and more reliable for me to drive and park in town than it is to get the bus. My local operator is beyond useless at the moment

Often only if you have to have a car anyway and are buying tickets day by day. Often an annual season ticket for a town is sub £1,000, few can own a car for less than £1,500 per year (and those who do are likely doing fairly low milage) as the average is over £3,000 per year (remembering that's for all costs including purchase, maintenance, insurance, parking, etc.)

Of course the number of people driving, and therefore creating congestion, is making it worse as the bus companies need more buses and more staff to run the same frequency of service.

That's not too say that they shouldn't be better, but we are too easily convinced to drive when that shouldn't be our default mode of travel. With very high fuel prices and a cost of living crisis (in addition to a shortage of cars pushing their prices every higher) yet we continue on with using cars for trips which would be better undertaken by walking and cycling.

Yesterday there was a need for me to drive to work rather than walk. The school run took longer and we probably walked almost as far (visiting 3 different settings, but driving between the three would have been slower still) as if we walked. Whilst I'm not keen to repeat that process far too many people are.

Unfortunately I doubt that's likely to change any time during 2022, or 2023 or even before 2030.

Of course if we did use or cars a little less across the whole of the EU then there's a good chance that imports of fuel from Russia could have been part of the sanctions. We've had since the war in Chechnya in 2000 or even 8 years later the invasion of Georgia in 2008 to reduce our car use. We even were sent a reminder in 2014 with Crimea (6 years after that). 8 years on there's the invasion of Ukraine. If we (as the West) are still fairly reliant on Russian fuel in 2026 (which is 4 years away) then don't be surprised if we find ourselves with another Russian lead war within a few years (yes electric cars will help a little, however we need to do more than just that).

Of course little will change as life is easy and we've all brought into the lie that cars being us unlimited benefits (they do bring us benefits but only to a point; and I'm saying that as someone who designs roads and the industry knows that trying to design for almost unrestricted car use will never be possible) and we can't see how our over reliance is harming is. Congestion which stops ambulances getting to people to save their lives (before you even consider the time we waste say in congestion), the amount of money government and business spend on roads, cars which cause about 5 deaths a day through collisions, pollution which is harming individuals as well as contributing to causing climate change* which is warming there planet rapidly and that's before you consider the harm being done to us all due to the lack of exercise.

*It is likely that man-made emissions are, at the very least, meaning that the level of carbon in the atmosphere is higher than the planet could deal with and therefore changing climate faster than ecosystems can adjust to, even if natural emissions are higher.

For instance of man-made emissions account for 20 and natural emissions are 85, yet the planet can only deal with 100 then whilst the natural emissions are the biggest contributor that still doesn't excuse us from producing more when we could produce less.

Even if we produced 18 rather than 20 then it would likely slow down any impacts that we would be having. The problem is that even if that was the situation in (say) 2010 we've been increasing our emissions globally (even though nationally there's been some good progress in some areas, although not transport where it's worse; even though cars are more efficient then ever), which means that we are accelerating the impact.

As such we're now needing to reduce from (say) 25 which means that we've got to do more and go faster than if we took this more seriously even 5 years ago, let alone 30 years ago. The changes 30 years ago would have likely have been fairly limited compared to what we are likely to do in the next few years anyway (likely significant wind farm development and much more solar generation).

There's even an argument that the impact of the cost of living crisis would have been dulled. As whilst Covid would have still impacted on oil and gas production the world would have been less reliant on it and therefore there wouldn't have been the level of increased demand for it (which has pushed up process) as the economy recovered after Covid. However even if those prices had increased we'd have been insulated from much of the increase due to it being used less.

For example if 15p or of every pound we spend is related to energy, if of that we spend 3p on Hydrocarbons and the price doubles that's a smaller impact than if we're spending 7p on Hydrocarbons and the price increases by 50%.

Likewise if the amount spent on energy reduces (due to having more efficient houses and vehicles) then that also insulates is from energy cost increases.
 

Cowley

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Threads reopened to discuss how things played out over the last year.

Over to you kick things off @Goldfish62. :)
 

Goldfish62

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Threads reopened to discuss how things played out over the last year.

Over to you kick things off @Goldfish62. :)
Thanks. :)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Happy New Year everyone.

I couldn't find any similar threads so I thought I'd start one.

So here goes with mine:

1. Passenger numbers will continue to stagnate and there will be a realisation of a permanent reduction to no more than 70% of pre-Covid levels.
2. There will be permanent severe cuts to train services across the country, leading to much strife and outcry.
3. There will be an unprecedented level of industrial action, including coordinated national strikes.
4. Our esteemed PM will be replaced by someone more hostile towards the railways.
5. HS2 and the Integrated Rail Plan will be further watered down.
6. Crossrail will open in late Summer.
7. No-one will be any-the-wiser re GBR and the government will start making steps to push it into the long grass, along with "Reversing Beeching".
8. The Class 701s will go another whole year without entering service (as will the 730s).
9. There will be no significant passenger rolling stock orders.
10. Freight traffic on the railways will grow, slowly.
11. Hitachi will eventually publish their action plan to deal with the IEP cracking, but not before further sources of cracking are found.
12. The first Passenger Service Contract will be tendered by the DfT and it will be C2C (Essex Thameside).

I realise it's gloomy, but I really can't think of anything more positive right now! I look forward to your more positive predictions!
So, I think I did pretty well with that.

OK, 1, 2, 6 and 12 I got wrong although I think 2 at least is only deferred. For the rest I was pretty spot-on, although I don't think you need to be any great reader of tea leaves to have to have predicted any of those.

My 2023 predictions will be a whole lot gloomier...
 
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Sutton in Ant

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Thanks. :)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==


So, I think I did pretty well with that.

OK, 1, 2, 6 and 12 I got wrong although I think 2 at least is only deferred. For tge rest I was pretty spot-on, although I don't think you need to be any great reader of tea leaves to have to have predicted any of those.

My 2023 predictions will be a whole lot gloomier...
Well done Goldfish 62. You are a better predictor than me. As far as 2023 is concerned. I will let other people do the predicting.
 

yorksrob

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I just hope that the ECML mk 4's have an assured future.

Same for the remaining IC125's, but the mk 4's are my best hope nowadays of a comfy trip between home and the South.

Hope the vacation express goes from strength to strength.

Hope Northern Rail ends up with enough stock not to endure regular off-peak crowding.

Well, that hasn't worked out too well so far.
 

The Ham

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However part of the drop is potentially linked to a number of those due to retire within the next 2-5 years having done so once they were asked to return after being put on furlough (highlighted by the lack of staff in many areas). The impact of which will reduce over time as younger people start working after education.

Once Covid starts to be of less concern to more people it's likely that numbers in some areas could reach over 100% what they were fairly quickly. Commuting in the SE is likely to be the area which takes the longest to recover. Although things like low emission zones could play a part in seeing numbers recover.

Some TOC have seen passenger numbers go above 100%, three fact that TPE, XC and Avanti are still only running about 2/3 of services isn't helping.

The SE is the area where numbers are still down quite a bit.

However given that this is data from July to September 22 (so 6-9 months since there were significant concerns about Covid in December 21) and it's been a significant upwards tend for the last 6 quarters it's not going to bad (even though we are down on 2019 numbers by some margin).
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Some TOC have seen passenger numbers go above 100%, three fact that TPE, XC and Avanti are still only running about 2/3 of services isn't helping.

The SE is the area where numbers are still down quite a bit.

However given that this is data from July to September 22 (so 6-9 months since there were significant concerns about Covid in December 21) and it's been a significant upwards tend for the last 6 quarters it's not going to bad (even though we are down on 2019 numbers by some margin).
No but the upward trend will be impacted by the strikes when the next qtrs results are released by ORR and could have an adverse long term impact to industry finances. Both sides in this dispute must surely see that and if we had any half decent senior leaders who cared about teh industry rather than protecting there exorbitant salaries they would making best endeavours with DfT and the unions to make both sides see that at little more give by DfT and some concessions by unions to at least accept that the world has moved on and things need to change would see the dispute resolved. There should also be a profit share mechanism like Scotrails that rewards teh staff if revenue exceeds certain levels.
 

The Ham

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No but the upward trend will be impacted by the strikes when the next qtrs results are released by ORR and could have an adverse long term impact to industry finances. Both sides in this dispute must surely see that and if we had any half decent senior leaders who cared about teh industry rather than protecting there exorbitant salaries they would making best endeavours with DfT and the unions to make both sides see that at little more give by DfT and some concessions by unions to at least accept that the world has moved on and things need to change would see the dispute resolved. There should also be a profit share mechanism like Scotrails that rewards teh staff if revenue exceeds certain levels.

According to this page (which shows daily data until part way through December) the upwards tend appears to be continuing although fairly flat from July, as such the last quarter of 2022 probably isn't much different from the July to September data (it may even be slightly higher):

 

Nicholas Lewis

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According to this page (which shows daily data until part way through December) the upwards tend appears to be continuing although fairly flat from July, as such the last quarter of 2022 probably isn't much different from the July to September data (it may even be slightly higher):

At least action by employers like this should help

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...ng-home-job-adverts-fall-seventh-consecutive/

British bosses are turning their backs on home working and hauling more staff back to the office as companies abandon remote roles.

Job adverts for fully remote roles declined for the seventh straight month in November, according to data from LinkedIn, and now represent just one in ten listings on the recruitment platform, down from a peak of 16pc.

Last month saw the lowest share of remote work ads posted since the company started compiling data in January 2021, just before England entered its third national lockdown.
 
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