The reasons for going into lockdown

[JonathanH]

Found this on the web....

Seasonal flu is still a major killer, which contributes to the rise in death rates during colder months, and to the overloading of medical systems in winter. Dr Suzanna McDonald, national programme lead for influenza at Public Health England, warned: “Whilst the flu is common, it can be deadly for older adults, very young children and people with underlying health conditions.”

The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza.

Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19.

The number of excess winter deaths is also relevant, some years bad, some years good

Excess winter mortality in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Excess winter mortality in England and Wales, by region, sex, age group and local authority.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[LAX54]

The number of excess winter deaths is also relevant, some years bad, some years good

Excess winter mortality in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Excess winter mortality in England and Wales, by region, sex, age group and local authority.

www.ons.gov.uk

And this bit is interesting in that link: There were an estimated 23,200 excess winter deaths which occurred in England and Wales in the 2018 to 2019 winter, the lowest since the winter of 2013 to 2014.
In the 2018 to 2019 winter period (December to March), there were an estimated 23,200 EWD in England and Wales (Figure 1). This was substantially lower than the 49,410 EWD observed in the 2017 to 2018

 

[yorkie]

Not sure why we did not restrict travellers from 'known' hotspots coming in via Ports and Airports, right back to late Feb, early March, and even now, I do not think there is an actuall ban ? Stiil Daily Flights to/from JFK etc
Did we 'lockdown' two weeks too late ?

Most of this post goes well beyond the scope of this thread, which is "The reasons for going into Lockdown".

This particular point has been addressed in numerous other threads.

The longer lockdown goes on, the more people will flout it, even now, the roads are far busier than there were just a week ago, more people out 'exercising'

Again this is covered by other threads but people have put forward various reasons why the roads will be busier before any flouting is taken into consideration.

People need to gte back to work, before there is no work to go to ...

I agree but again this is covered by other threads

 

[Jozhua]

I had another look at the Boris Johnson lockdown announcement from 23rd March - there is quite a lot of cause and effect in it but I think the message that the health service should not be overwhelmed is the main reason:

By the looks of this it was about increasing healthcare capacity temporarily.

I think what hasn't help was Boris being sick for a month and deputising to others, with the vacuum of power leaving little being done. I think Boris is now even more cautious, having been first hand seriously ill from the disease, this has lead to the aim becoming muddled.


Then there are the five tests to coming out of lockdown:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52374513

After Easter, when the government announced lockdown was to continue for another three weeks, it set out five tests that had to be met before restrictions were eased.

But with growing evidence we are over peak, how close are we to meeting those five tests? And what else needs to be done?

Where does that leave the lockdown?
Based on the five tests, it is clear we are not in a position to ease the lockdown.

The biggest hurdles seem to be the two issues the government is receiving most criticism for - testing and PPE.

Until they are resolved, it seems hard to see how the situation can change.

This was on the 27th of April, not much seems to have changed.

 

[Neen Sollars]

Thank you both for those links. The second article in the very early stages of the outbreak did warn of its potential threat which has sadly come to pass. The first information site is exactly what I was looking for thanks.

60,000 excess deaths, just over 30,000 officially due to C19. So the remainder of the excess deaths caused by the effects of the lockdown? People fearful of or unable to access medical assistance during the crisis, mental health problems? Do these figures indicate the lockdown is creating a parallel crisis?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thank you both for those links. The second article in the very early stages of the outbreak did warn of its potential threat which has sadly come to pass. The first information site is exactly what I was looking for thanks.

60,000 excess deaths, just over 30,000 officially due to C19. So the remainder of the excess deaths caused by the effects of the lockdown? People fearful of or unable to access medical assistance during the crisis, mental health problems? Do these figures indicate the lockdown is creating a parallel crisis?

There is certainly an issue with some treatments e.g. cancer being unavailable and others being fearful of seeking treatment, going to bed hoping it'll get better and not waking up in the morning.

 

[Neen Sollars]

Given the dire warnings given to Boris, Then yes I think the lockdown was introduced to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and scenes as in Italy, where no beds available, being avoided. Slowing the spread with a lockdown also allowed for the building of temporary extra medical capacity to cope. Clearly the data from the daily briefings shows the NHS is now only using around 40% of critical care beds? But the fear of a "second spike" is now being used as a justification for continuing the lockdown. In which case the only way to come out of lockdown is to know there will not be a second spike, the only way to do this is to conduct saturated anti body testing in specific localities to establish the percentage of the sample who have already been infected with C19 and have immunity from C19. Extrapolate the result to the rest of the population, you then have to fire fight the hotspots as they emerge with mini lockdowns. Accurate anti body tests to around 99% are probably around two or three weeks away, then it would take another three to six weeks to conduct and consider these local exercises? At this rate we are looking at July for anything like previous normality, and I think previous normality will return not a "new normal".

 

[Domh245]

60,000 excess deaths, just over 30,000 officially due to C19. So the remainder of the excess deaths caused by the effects of the lockdown? People fearful of or unable to access medical assistance during the crisis, mental health problems? Do these figures indicate the lockdown is creating a parallel crisis?

Some will likely be un-diagnosed COVID, but primarily it'll be removal of other treatments, either through deliberate decisions to postpone by NHS or people not seeking it. What is interesting is looking at where the excess deaths are occurring (at least, as of 27th April) - they're all in the 45+ group, mainly the 85+. It's certainly indicative of a parallel crisis for sure.