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TFW "Severe Weather" Cancellations

Andrew888

Member
Joined
18 Jul 2026
Messages
16
Location
Mid Wales
Does anyone know what is going on with the TFW-run Cambrian line's latest twist, cancellations between Aberystwyth and Machynlleth over the last two days due to "severe weather" forecasts? Both days have seen updates along the lines of:

Due to forecasted severe weather between Machynlleth (MCN) and Aberystwyth (AYW):

Services will be cancelled in both directions between Machynlleth (MCN) and Aberystwyth (AYW).

The confusing thing is that the local weather forecasts have been respectively, scattered showers, and, today, "cloudy". (And in fact it's currently blue skies and sunshine outside.) This is on BBC/Met Office/Windy/Apple weather apps.

Pulling up the satellite picture there's no weather to speak of closer than the east coast of the USA. And nothing unusual eventuated yesterday beyond a bit of wind. (We get much, much worse here though!) Plus, I would've expected any severe weather to have more of an effect on the Pwllheli leg up the coast?

Looking more closely, today's cancellations are specifically after 6pm through the end of day (https://tfw.wales/service-status/all-updates), so not as bad, but still, there's no detail as to what they think is going to happen for the second time in two days that justifies wholesale train cancellation.

I'm wondering if someone's punched the wrong postcode into their weather app!
 
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RailUK Forums

Andrew888

Member
Joined
18 Jul 2026
Messages
16
Location
Mid Wales
Interesting, that would fit. We had a full moon recently, and it's the autumn equinox. It looks like there's a 5.25m high tide at 8:30pm tonight (it's normally more around 4.9m) so that definitely aligns with today's cancellations. Yesterday's was similar but at 8:15pm, so I'm not sure why the whole-day cancellations. Maybe just easier operationally. (The morning high tides are much smaller so it's presumably not that.)

If so, I wish they'd just say. We could then check the tide tables and see how likely it is they'll cancel tomorrow and/or the rest of the week, given they won't tell us in advance. My guess is tomorrow will see the same issues (5.15m) but it'll be back to normal on Wednesday (4.9m).
 

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