South Wales Mainline Improvements

[DynamicSpirit]

It seems logical that this could be one of the stoppers, it could always run faster north of Cheltenham. And if TfW, doesn't really matter - although given the bays/sharing, I would think interworking would be planned with the new Bristol, and indeed the Hereford. TfW could run the Bristol-Moor St, and maybe it could interwork with the Bristol-Cardiff, and be something of a triangular operation, if needed.

Why would TfW want to run a Bristol-Moor Street service that runs entirely within England and for most of its journey goes nowhere near Wales?

 

[cle]

Why wouldn't they...? If it's lucrative... and interworks...

 

[Dai Corner]

Why would TfW want to run a Bristol-Moor Street service that runs entirely within England and for most of its journey goes nowhere near Wales?

They say their only profitable service is Cardiff -Manchester and that's mostly in England. There's money to be made carrying passengers into, out of and between the large English cities even if it's only through ORCATS (Operational Research Computerised Allocation of Tickets to Services) ; the way revenue is divided up between TOCs.

 

[tigermonstera]

Small update in the Senedd Plenary today:

Network Rail are working to complete the final business case and final design for the upgrade of the south Wales relief lines, and this scheme has been fully funded in the spending review and is essential to enable the delivery of the new Burns stations and Cardiff parkway. It will start and it will be completed in this spending period.

 

[Dr Day]

What is the purpose of business cases if the scheme in question is already fully funded? Genuine question.

Thanks

 

[John R]

What is the purpose of business cases if the scheme in question is already fully funded? Genuine question.

Thanks

That was my thought too. I would probably lean on the "final design" part of the work, which provided it comes within the expected budget means that the business case is than a matter of being rubber stamped. Of course, if it comes in at 30% over....

 

[The exile]

That was my thought too. I would probably lean on the "final design" part of the work, which provided it comes within the expected budget means that the business case is than a matter of being rubber stamped. Of course, if it comes in at 30% over....

Or indeed the missing, but implied, proviso “fully funded, providing the business case proves satisfactory”.

 

[Christian Schm]

What governments like to call a business case isn’t necessarily the same as the plain English meaning of it.

I don’t have UK gov or NR project planing frameworks at hand, but for Welsh transport projects the relevant stages are called:
1: Strategic Outline Business Case
2: Outline Business Case
3: Business Case
4: Delivery
5: Monitoring & Evaluation

Stage 1 includes outlining issues, setting objectives and condensing a possible long-list of alternatives (some quite strategic) into a shortlist. The assessment ist often qualitatively - i.e. you need an idea whether an option is deliverable but cost and benefits are at best estimates, and often just scores of +++ to - - -.

Stage 2 is then condensing the shortlist to a single preferred option. The assessment should be quantitatively - i.e. you need costs and benefits. At this point you should also have a good idea how a project can get funded. So at this point a decision in principle is often made, to go ahead with delivery, subject to completing stage 3.

And Stage 3 may be called ‘business case‘ but is in fact dominated by detailed design (and some updating of the quantitative business case established at stage 2 should the detailed design lead to cost change).