Sonik
Member
HS2 and NPR ect. are though now driving a more strategic view of the whole network at all levels, including government. I'd suggest that ERTMS will first be rolled out in the course of upgrades (e.g. ECML/TPRU) and in future, during routine asset renewals, and at some point it will become worthwhile to fill in some of the the gaps so left, if only to provide more effective management of core routes where they intersect with the remaining 'islands'.ERTMS isn't (yet) a cost-effective solution for rural/low usage lines so fitting is being concentrated on routes like ECML where the capacity and safety benefit can support a business case - and those are the ones where control is generally centralised anyway.
So ultimately I think the timescales for each area/route will be determined by the remaining lifetime of existing signaling assets. If they need replacing anyway the cost of upgrade becomes moot. And at least in theory ERTMS will be cheaper to deploy and maintain (than conventional signaling) once a critical mass is reached. So expect to see a tipping point.
Last edited: