In the ECML timetable change for December 2025, it currently suggests that Birmingham-Leicester trains will reduced from 34 to 16 per day, which would suggest the local run would not operate with only the full Birmingham-Stansted service there:
https://ecmltimetable.info/stations/birmingham-new-street-station#station-content
Given it shows 0 however for Cardiff-Nottingham I'm sure it's more a case they're just not included for whatever reason, rather than withdrawn.
If this were true hypothetically the main disadvantage would be a frequency cut from Birmingham-Coleshill, Nuneaton and Leicester from 2 to 1tph, but suppose this could be partly counteracted with more longer trains? Besides that I could actually see some merit with this:
- You'd halve the passenger train flow from Nuneaton through to Wigston junction by removing one train that doesn't routinely call anywhere along that stretch anyway, perhaps allowing for greater freight throughput?
- Hinckley, Narborough and whatever may call at South Wigston would acheive greater connectivity with a regular service towards Cambridge/Stansted, rather than a Leicester terminating service
- Capacity freed up at Leicester and Nuneaton (1tph) for potential new services elsewhere, or freight. Coleshill would be the main loser but given the passenger flows it's obviously not very well patronised anyway. It sees less passenger throughput than Hinckley and Narborough despite having almost double the service level (off-peak at least).
- This could go some way to adressing driver shortages with a, relatively, minimal impact on service provision, so long as some longer trains could substitute capacity between Birmingham and Nuneaton/Leicester. Platform 2 at Stansted is one of the biggest contraints for bigger trains - I've definitely seen 4-car combinations (2x 2-carriage Class 170 units) operating there but I don't think it can take a 5-car combination, though could be wrong. This would also make the ad-hoc calls in Whittlesea and Manea challenging due to their very short platforms, assuming those calls would continue.