Scottish Conservatives

[telstarbox]

I know there are a few of you on here

After the recent spat between Douglas Ross and the party HQ, would the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party do any better if it was an "associated" party to the English / Welsh Conservatives rather than a closely linked one today?

If the independence question was settled one way or another what sort of policies might do well for them?

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I know there are a few of you on here

After the recent spat between Douglas Ross and the party HQ, would the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party do any better if it was an "associated" party to the English / Welsh Conservatives rather than a closely linked one today?

If the independence question was settled one way or another what sort of policies might do well for them?

I don't think any election in this country should have the same old Lib/Lab/Con choice. Why does the London Borough of Southwark field Tory candidates when they are only likely to ever win one seat in Dulwich and leave the council without an effective opposition? I think more local, regional-based parties are the answer in many elections that don't just follow the binary left/right spectrum from national politics.

I think that, with many things today, "values" are more important than party. So yes, if the Scottish Conservatives did just become a "SUP" party, it would probably attract more people who aren't, you know, middle-class Tories because the concept of union binds them together closer than old party or class lines.

The flip side is it would entrench the new, binary nature of Scottish politics and potentially make it more volatile.

 

[Wynd]

Tomkins has fairly set the hares running.

There are parts of his thesis however that are self evident facts. Uncomfortable though they may be to Unionism.

The primary one being that there absolutely is a place for center right politics in Scotland, in Union or as an Independent State. They Torys at present cant capture the true breadth of the underlying sympathy and sentiment for this.

Secondly, that it is extremely unlikely the Tory's ever win in their own right in the current political settlement in a Scottish HR or WM election. 20/70 years of trying largely proves this.

Third, he is absolutely correct to say that the London cabal of the Tory's (interpret that however you like) are now a toxic brand in Scotland. (Cue debate if the counter has ever been true in Scotland, certainly not in the last 50 years.)

Fourth, that this is not a sustainable position for the party. This is true, how long can a party go on losing elections and not reform itself significantly. Tomkins said something to the effect of having ambition. Quite right!

So there are the issues, but what are the resolutions?

Grin and bear it, hope it all blows over, live to fight another day. This appears to be the strategy given the media blackout/omerta as called out on the BBC no less!

Or, reform the party. Divorce from London. Set their own agenda, policy, be very much at arms length of London and run their own show wholesale.

The first solution repeats the issues Tomkins is highlighting. The electorate are hardly swarming to a party that constantly has to run for cover.
The second has an issue so obvious that the risk it carries should be obvious to all. The gift to the opposition is probably something the Tory's just cant countenance. "How can you yourselves credibly say you want independence from London yet deny it to Scots...?!"

So, it looks like nothing is going to change. Despite how salient and prescient A Tomkins words may be.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I know there are a few of you on here

After the recent spat between Douglas Ross and the party HQ, would the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party do any better if it was an "associated" party to the English / Welsh Conservatives rather than a closely linked one today?

If the independence question was settled one way or another what sort of policies might do well for them?

Yes, absolutely. The Scottish Tories under McLetchie started to diverge from the UK Tories, and Goldie kept on that path. Davidson's performance in the 2017 election was beyond all expectations, and showed that the Scottish Tories with a clear Scottish identity were capable of being the face of Unionism in the country. The problem was that the Scottish Tories then got lost in the nonsense surrounding Brexit, and the SNP were able to punish them as a consequence of that.

Douglas Ross is trying to establish them as a party with a separate identity that isn't associated with the mess in Westminister, which is what worked so well for the previous leaders.

Secondly, that it is extremely unlikely the Tory's ever win in their own right in the current political settlement in a Scottish HR or WM election. 20/70 years of trying largely proves this.

Never say never, but I think the last ~20 years of hard work has been largely undone by Boris. You're also right that the UK Tories are a toxic brand north of the border, and I'd go so far as saying that it's probably time for the Scottish Tories to get rid of that name and replace it with something like the SUP - Scottish Unionist Party, with separate membership and only operating within a federation with the English Conservative Party. Ross seems to understand that Boris is opening the door for Labour to make a small comeback in Scotland, especially with the likable Sarwar at their head.

Fourth, that this is not a sustainable position for the party. This is true, how long can a party go on losing elections and not reform itself significantly. Tomkins said something to the effect of having ambition. Quite right!

Is there really anything they can do to win in Scotland, though? A Labour-Tory government would never be accepted by the Labour rank and file, the SNP would never go into formal government with them, and the Lib Dems are essentially all but dead in Scotland. Culture wars won't work in Scotland, and the attitude of the English Tories towards Scotland will almost always keep them in opposition.

The gift to the opposition is probably something the Tory's just cant countenance. "How can you yourselves credibly say you want independence from London yet deny it to Scots...?!"

I don't think there's an easy answer to that. The only answer is that the Tories should be adopting a policy of campaigning for DevoMax, and it could be a very easy win if Ross was to turn up in Westminister to announce that he's agreed an amendment to the Scotland Act to implement DevoMax within the next year. It would undermine Sturgeon and show that Ross is capable of delivering what Scottish voters want, and it would put immense pressure on the SNP to run a government which is now all-but-independent, including with full fiscal devolution.

Having said that, I think the federalisation of the UK is all but inevitable under the next Labour government anyway.

 

[Wynd]

I cant help but wonder if we are not heading for a 3 way question on a future referendum of Yes-DevoMax-No but instead a 2 way that is DM-Yes.

Labour have that commission set up by Brown, (thats a whole subject on its own, there are few more brands toxic in Scotland than the torys but GB is one, the Vow being the prime reason))

It is not going down well that Gordon Brown gets a say on Scotland's future but Scotland's electorate do not.

The inevitability is an interesting subject. Ciaran Martin covered some of this back in November. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20419058211066522

In terms of Federalism, its difficult to see how the Torys can make political hay with it. The implication is that this is something all UK nations would have to agree on.

Then of course there is the elephant in the room. Captured by a very simple question.

If Scotland keeps voting SNP, and doesn't actually get the policy that party is running on, can we call Scotland a democracy? How many elections do the SNP have to win to enact a mandate?

In the context of the Scottish torys, they ran on a explicit mandate of No to IR2, and lost, badly.

This whole subject has become thorny.

Its tricky to see how it gets resolved with the Torys in power. The longer they play for time, the more harm is done to the principle of democracy, which may well drive sentiment. Isn't this how we got to Holyrood?
Inevitability implies we are on a one way path. DevoMax seeks to end the path at Monetary, defense and Foreign affairs with all else being devolved to Edinburgh.

Sensible you may say, and many would agree, but Brexit, thats foreign affairs. A lot of Yes sentiment is pro-EU... DM would effectively block a path back to the EU, hindering that campaign.

If Scotland does become a new State, there is very much a place for center right politics. I do wonder if the Scottish torys have been pondering this.