Scotrail to replace HSTs

[Snow1964]

New procurement announced by Scottish Government to replace HSTs

The Scottish Government announced today that procurement will begin to replace its Intercity trains.
The procurement, which will be led by ScotRail on behalf of Transport Scotland, will seek a replacement for the High Speed Train (HST) fleet which operates on its InterCity routes between Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, and Inverness.
Cabinet Secretary for Transport Fiona Hyslop said:
“Resilient, reliable ScotRail services are key to encouraging more people to choose to travel by train rather than car, to cutting our transport emissions and to helping to move people around Scotland for work, leisure and learning. That is why we must build on our investment in Scotland’s railway infrastructure by investing in the services and trains which connect our key cities.
“Over 4 million passenger journeys were made on InterCity trains in the last year. We want to maintain and where possible, increase that number choosing to go by train between Scotland’s cities.
“We want to replace the current Intercity fleet with trains which provide more comfort and accessibility for passengers on these routes.
“This planned investment will ensure the reliability of our Intercity routes for the long-term, will reduce emissions from Intercity services and will support our efforts to decarbonise Scotland’s railways.”
Further details on this announcement will be shared when the contract notice is published in the coming weeks.

Scotland to get new Intercity fleet | Transport Scotland

www.transport.gov.scot

More details and the formal contract notice to follow in next few weeks

 

[GlitterUnicorn]

New procurement announced by Scottish Government to replace HSTs

Scotland to get new Intercity fleet | Transport Scotland

www.transport.gov.scot

More details and the formal contract notice to follow in next few weeks

I was assured by this forum that this was impossible (despite the trains being rather useless) as the HSTs were on a Section 54 until 2044.

 

[Charged up]

I was assured by this forum that this was impossible (despite the trains being rather useless) as the HSTs were on a Section 54 until 2044.

The 25 HSTs are on Section 54 until 2030 with Angel Trains.

The 70 class 385 Hitachi EMU fleet owned by Caledonian Rail leasing [a subsidiary company of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation] is on a 25 year Section 54 agreement until 2044.

 

[trei2k]

For those of us not in the know, what is a Section 54?

 

[skyhigh]

I was assured by this forum that this was impossible (despite the trains being rather useless) as the HSTs were on a Section 54 until 2044.

They are on a Section 54, but until 2030 not 2044.

Despite that, the trains don't have to be used. Scotrail could continue to pay the leasing costs. They could come to a commercial arrangement with Angel (i.e. Scotrail will pay off any remaining balance on the modification costs, Angel will in return allow the termination of the lease or will use Angel to procure the replacement stock).

There will be a cost to terminate the lease early, but Scotrail have obviously decided that the benefits of replacement outweigh the costs.

For those of us not in the know, what is a Section 54?

Essentially guaranteeing the length of a lease to encourage investment in rolling stock.

 

[fgwrich]

Before everyone starts jumping up and down with glee or hyperbole, 4 year design and procurement process will take them closer to the 2030 planned withdrawal date. This isn’t going to be an overnight process, and whatever their replacement will be will likely be the future Intercity fleet for ScotRail - eg the Bi-Mode units they’ve been talking about for a long time.

 

[brad465]

What are the chances of getting approval? There are several fleet tender announcements in England that appear to be stalling, but is Scottish railway running devolved enough to avoid this?

 

[John R]

What are the chances of getting approval? There are several fleet tender announcements in England that appear to be stalling, but is Scottish railway running devolved enough to avoid this?

There’s very little money available, hence why I’m sceptical that 22x stock will be used, as I would imagine there would be a big cost to releasing the HSTs early.

But longer term Scotrail needs to replace the HSTs, and thus need to start now in terms of a procurement exercise, especially if they want stock consistent with the decarbonisation strategy. And there will be no immediate impact to a stretched budget if the stock won’t come in for 5 years.

 

[Snow1964]

What are the chances of getting approval? There are several fleet tender announcements in England that appear to be stalling, but is Scottish railway running devolved enough to avoid this?

Yes, Scottish Government is devolved on Transport, so not reliant on DfT teams dithering, and DfT budget interaction with Treasury.

Of course they are free to piggyback on any existing English order and choose a train that is already designed, tested and certified to reduce development risk and get economies of scale prices.

 

[snowball]

This is a change in the previous policy, which was for three phases of procurement, beginning with "suburban" trains, and with intercity trains not until the third phase - see the first post in the following thread:

ScotRail’s New Trains Procurement Programme

An advert for a tender for legal services for the above (https://www.publiccontractsscotland.gov.uk/search/show/search_view.aspx?ID=AUG455691) gives some more detail on the fleet plan ScotRail Trains (SRT) plans to replace 65% of its train fleet (around 675 carriages) in the period 2027 to...

www.railforums.co.uk

The future of electrification in Scotland is left in more murk than ever.

As I type, BBC news is saying the Scotgov will be announcing a new round of public spending cuts this afternoon.

 

[JumpinTrainz]

This is a change in the previous policy, which was for three phases of procurement, beginning with "suburban" trains, and with intercity trains not until the third phase - see the first post in the following thread:

ScotRail’s New Trains Procurement Programme

An advert for a tender for legal services for the above (https://www.publiccontractsscotland.gov.uk/search/show/search_view.aspx?ID=AUG455691) gives some more detail on the fleet plan ScotRail Trains (SRT) plans to replace 65% of its train fleet (around 675 carriages) in the period 2027 to...

www.railforums.co.uk

The future of electrification in Scotland is left in more murk than ever.

As I type, BBC news is saying the Scotgov will be announcing a new round of public spending cuts this afternoon.

I thought we would have heard about a replacement for the 318s/320s/334s before this. Things have been very quiet. The 318s are nearing 40.

 

[vicbury]

This isn’t surprising, especially given all the issues with the HST fleet since their introduction. While I’m convinced that the FLIRT family is by far the best solution available, I’ll be surprised if they choose them. As others have pointed out, a longer time period for procurement may well be an advantage, given the precarious financial position right now. Politically speaking, there’s also a fair chance that in 5 years’ time it’ll be ‘someone else’s problem’.

Does leasing a new fleet result in immediate costs to the Government? If the old fleet is already leased, then surely a new fleet would only be marginally more expensive as the leasing companies would depreciate their rolling stock over a 30-40 year period? Or is that wishful thinking?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

I thought we would have heard about a replacement for the 318s/320s/334s before this. Things have been very quiet. The 318s are nearing 40.

And the HSTs nearing 50…

 

[Snow1964]

Does leasing a new fleet result in immediate costs to the Government? If the old fleet is already leased, then surely a new fleet would only be marginally more expensive as the leasing companies would depreciate their rolling stock over a 30-40 year period? Or is that wishful thinking?

There is a theoretical risk that when a lease ends, the lease company might not lease it again for another period (either because they have a better offer from another operator, or because the liabilities associated with the train are no longer economic to meet). For the HST fleet could be Mexicans want them more, or safety upgrades make them uneconomic.

Yes lease costs of a new fleet could be higher, but running costs and maintenance costs could be lower. So need to look at overall costs not just the lease cost to operator, as overall cost of new fleet might be lower.

The only immediate cost is if lease comes with deposit or multiple months up front (car leases often do this, 3, 6 or 9 months up front)

 

[Vectron383]

Does leasing a new fleet result in immediate costs to the Government? If the old fleet is already leased, then surely a new fleet would only be marginally more expensive as the leasing companies would depreciate their rolling stock over a 30-40 year period? Or is that wishful thinking?

As mentioned elsewhere the HSTs’ lease agreement runs to 2030 and even if Scotrail tried to withdraw them before then they would still have to pay the lease or come to another arrangement with the lessor.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

As mentioned elsewhere the HSTs’ lease agreement runs to 2030 and even if Scotrail tried to withdraw them before then they would still have to pay the lease or come to another arrangement with the lessor.

I’m sure Angel would be quite happy to end the lease early if they were offered the opportunity to lease a new(er) train to Scotrail instead.

 

[Suraggu]

I didn't see a specific mention of new build unless I have missed something.

 

[takno]

I didn't see a specific mention of new build unless I have missed something.

Would they need to go through a detailed procurement exercise for second-hand stock? There doesn't seem to be any reason to imagine that this would be second-hand stock, and indeed a further procurement of second-hand stock would go down very badly indeed given how the HSTs have worked out.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Would they need to go through a detailed procurement exercise for second-hand stock? There doesn't seem to be any reason to imagine that this would be second-hand stock, and indeed a further procurement of second-hand stock would go down very badly indeed given how the HSTs have worked out.

Yes, applies for any new lease unless there is only a single option available which means a direct award can be made.

Look at GWR class 387 lease renewal as an example of this.

 

[Morayshire]

So unless I have missed something, that is just about six years to get bids in for the replacement stock, sort out the finer details of the specs, sign the contract and build the new stock.

Not to mention get enough in service so crews can be trained in advance this time.

Which should take us to 2030 and the planned end of lease for the HST's?

Also gives Transport Scotland 6 years to find the cash to fund the new trains (given the current black hole in Scot Gov finances, this is probably a good thing)

Major problem looks to me to as it will probably be finance and delivering on time

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

As I type, BBC news is saying the Scotgov will be announcing a new round of public spending cuts this afternoon.

Most of the cuts gone health & social spending surprising although 24m taken off transport but also assumes they will gain back 65m from reinstating peak fares. The deeper concern is the warning that things will have to be squeezed in future years to the tune of 1B+/year is probably going to slow down capital investment although im pretty sure Reeves will come with a ruse to allow "investment" spending to not count towards the overall measure of spending as a % of GDP.

 

[Carntyne]

Wonderful news. Awful, unreliable trains that have never delivered what was promised. Bring on the new(er) fleet.

 

[Vectron383]

I agree that comfort and the standard of passenger accommodation has to be a priority- after all, part of the motivation for the procurement of Scotrail’s HSTs was to equalise the level of comfort with LNER’s HSTs when they ran North.

 

[fisher2511]

The Scottish Government has hopefully learned lessons from the Calmac Ferry fiasco, and is allowing sufficient time for the HST replacements to be designed, sourced, built and commissioned in time for the planned 2030 replacement. Six years seems sensible. Of course, journalists, particularly Scottish journalists, who are particularly inept, will think that replacing the HSTs will be a similar process to buying a new car from Arnold Clark.

 

[Davester50]

The Scottish Government has hopefully learned lessons from the Calmac Ferry fiasco, and is allowing sufficient time for the HST replacements to be designed, sourced, built and commissioned in time for the planned 2030 replacement.

You'd hope that, but the recent maccinations in Creative Scotland are hardly a pointer that Scottish Quangos have learned anything.

With today's budget cuts, I can't see anything remotely expensive, more an Aldi level than the Waitrose Stadlers.

Moderator note: until there is any more confirmed information, please use the following thread:

What stock will Scotrail procure to replace HSTs?

My money will be on class 222's or the mk5s and class 68s

www.railforums.co.uk