Red arrows Hawk T1 replacement

[martin butler]

I haven't seen any other forum posts about this, So I thought I would ask,

The Hawk T1 as used by the RAF red Arrows, is coming towards the end of its service life, in 2030, but so far, no replacement has been ordered,

What's the alternatives? The Hawk t2, isn't reliable enough, and the RAF only has 28, anyway, and there are no plans to restart production
,
That leaves 2 options buy a foreign design, even if it's assembled in the UK, Will people accept that?

Or even more extreme, disband the team, or convert to typhoons but are these suitable for the type of displays the Reds perform?

Your thoughts?

 

[nlogax]

Now that Aeralis have gone belly up I imagine the joint BAE-Saab-Boeing T7 proposal is in with a decent shout.

https://www.baesystems.com/en/artic...aab-to-collaborate-on-next-gen-pilot-training

Our new collaboration with Boeing and Saab will enable us to present a compelling offer to the UK Royal Air Force and our global customers, leveraging the latest tech innovation in training systems and a world-class jet trainer aircraft. We’re committed to ensuring this solution offers the best overall outcome for the nation to support the UK’s combat air readiness and deliver economic benefit.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Or even more extreme, disband the team, or convert to typhoons but are these suitable for the type of displays the Reds perform?

Disbanding has been bandied about multiple times in the last decade, but it's probably too much of a political risk.

Typhoons are likely far too expensive to procure a whole squadron's worth for what would be perceived publicly as "just a display team" even though behind the scenes it's a vital part of the RAF's more extreme training system. I suspect they are probably a bit too large as well - although the Blue Angels in the USA do even more extreme stuff with relatively large aircraft.

It's going to have to be whatever the next generation jet trainer the RAF ends up with, I think.

 

[gg1]

Disbanding has been bandied about multiple times in the last decade, but it's probably too much of a political risk.

Typhoons are likely far too expensive to procure a whole squadron's worth for what would be perceived publicly as "just a display team" even though behind the scenes it's a vital part of the RAF's more extreme training system. I suspect they are probably a bit too large as well - although the Blue Angels in the USA do even more extreme stuff with relatively large aircraft.

It's going to have to be whatever the next generation jet trainer the RAF ends up with, I think.

The problem there is the Hawk T2s are expected to remain in service until 2040, which I suppose adds a third option to the OP's list, suspend the Red Arrows for 10 years pending the introduction of the T2's replacement.

 

[martin butler]

The problem there is the Hawk T2s are expected to remain in service until 2040, which I suppose adds a third option to the OP's list, suspend the Red Arrows for 10 years pending the introduction of the T2's replacement.

Suspending will really mean scrapping, the bean counters will just argue we can't afford it. when someone asks can we reform the reds.

 

[Mogster]

I don’t understand why BAe hasn’t come up with a modernised Hawk replacement. I can see the UK sales may be a relatively small number but current Hawk users would surely be interested.

I agree the T7 Red Hawk looks like the most likely offering but it’s expensive and seems to have excessive performance for a Hawk replacement. Boeing/ BAe seem to be offering assembly in the UK so with BAe onboard it looks the likely option.

The Leonardo M-346 is another option but once again it looks over spec, particularly as it has 2 engines. The design is also quite old and has the unfortunate early Russian collaboration as a ball and chain… “Red Arrows to use Putin’s jets”, you can see the Daily Mail headline now

 

[gg1]

Suspending will really mean scrapping, the bean counters will just argue we can't afford it. when someone asks can we reform the reds.

It's a possibility but not a foregone conclusion. I suspect funding their reinstatement after a long hiatus would be relatively popular with the electorate. The fact that 2040 is the 100th anniversary of the Battle of Britain probably helps their chances too.

 

[GusB]

Do we really need to replace the Red Arrows? While it's a "nice to have", can we really afford to spend resources on a dedicated team of people whose main job is to fly in formation and blow coloured smoke? I realise that those pilots (and aircraft) are also able to step into combat roles if required, but when funds are tight is it really necessary?

It'd be a very difficult political decision to disband, though - the right wing press would have a field day and I can picture the likes of Farage and Lowe bumping their gums and being outraged about it.

 

[Ted633]

Do we really need to replace the Red Arrows? While it's a "nice to have", can we really afford to spend resources on a dedicated team of people whose main job is to fly in formation and blow coloured smoke? I realise that those pilots (and aircraft) are also able to step into combat roles if required, but when funds are tight is it really necessary?

It'd be a very difficult political decision to disband, though - the right wing press would have a field day and I can picture the likes of Farage and Lowe bumping their gums and being outraged about it.

The Red Arrows are the ‘face’ of the RAF, and are a significant recruitment tool. This engagement with the public shouldn’t be underestimated. In my opinion, the memorial flight will be disbanded before the Reds. (With the aircraft transferring to a civilian organisation like the Navy Historic Flight)
As you say though, disbanding either will be a political nightmare

The Hawk T2 has never lived up to expectations. Would expect an early replacement with new Red Arrows aircraft at the same time. The Leonardo M346 would be a good choice, with a possibility of some sort of production in Yeovil (Westland)

 

[Acey]

Ultimately ( and rightly so) the jet the MOD/RAF chooses will be the best option for it's fast jet training module,a display team using the new trainer will be a secondary consideration !

 

[Yew]

I don’t understand why BAe hasn’t come up with a modernised Hawk replacement. I can see the UK sales may be a relatively small number but current Hawk users would surely be interested.

Similarly, a low-cost jet that can be set up for anti-drone patrols isn't necessarily a bad idea, no point wearing out your Gucci gear shooting down Shahed drones.

 

[gabrielhj07]

Suspending will really mean scrapping, the bean counters will just argue we can't afford it. when someone asks can we reform the reds.

This is correct, especially if nobody defines a timeline to return to full displays. The longer they go without performing the harder it will be to restart, and some bean counter will pretend we can’t afford it anyway. Embarrassing.

 

[Class73Electro]

Red Arrows to fly with fewer jets to preserve ageing fleet

The famous display team will fly with seven rather than nine aircraft for most of its displays.

www.bbc.co.uk

Pilots will fly in a nine-aircraft formation for King Charles III's birthday flypast in June and one month later to help the US mark its 250th anniversary of independence but they will fly with seven aircraft for other events from this year.

So not many more full formations in the future...

 

[brad465]

Red Arrows to fly with fewer jets to preserve ageing fleet

The famous display team will fly with seven rather than nine aircraft for most of its displays.

www.bbc.co.uk

So not many more full formations in the future...

Beyond aviation enthusiast circles, I wouldn't be surprised if not many people notice the detail of number of planes in a typical Red Arrows' formation. I certainly didn't till this article.

 

[JamesT]

I don’t understand why BAe hasn’t come up with a modernised Hawk replacement. I can see the UK sales may be a relatively small number but current Hawk users would surely be interested.

I agree the T7 Red Hawk looks like the most likely offering but it’s expensive and seems to have excessive performance for a Hawk replacement. Boeing/ BAe seem to be offering assembly in the UK so with BAe onboard it looks the likely option.

The Leonardo M-346 is another option but once again it looks over spec, particularly as it has 2 engines. The design is also quite old and has the unfortunate early Russian collaboration as a ball and chain… “Red Arrows to use Putin’s jets”, you can see the Daily Mail headline now

BAE are probably quite happy that they continue to get revenue from Hawk (still being made in India I believe). Given it’s a 70s design, a replacement would almost certainly have to be a fresh design. Which is then up against all the other training jets out there, such as the ones you mention which are much further along their development. BAE seem to have decided they would rather invest in Tempest which is likely to be much more lucrative.

 

[martin butler]

I'm surprised that We have not decided to opt for a European design, rather than opting for an American partner, given that much of Europe is moving away from US involvement,

the M346 is an aging design, and at some stage most of our European partners will be needing a replacement to their own training aircraft, I would rather see a new design drawn up using European parts, and it being a pan European project much like the Eurofighter concept.

Is there enough knowledge that a new trainer, could be designed and built alongside the Tempest, possibly incorporating cockpit layouts, so that pilots can transition from trainer to fast jet smoothly?

 

[Western Lord]

I'm surprised that We have not decided to opt for a European design, rather than opting for an American partner, given that much of Europe is moving away from US involvement,

the M346 is an aging design, and at some stage most of our European partners will be needing a replacement to their own training aircraft, I would rather see a new design drawn up using European parts, and it being a pan European project much like the Eurofighter concept.

Is there enough knowledge that a new trainer, could be designed and built alongside the Tempest, possibly incorporating cockpit layouts, so that pilots can transition from trainer to fast jet smoothly?

Well, of course, the problem with a "European" design is that the French would be all for it as long as it was designed and built in France.

 

[pug1]

30 years ago when the RAF had around 450 fast jets in its inventory the Reds accounted for around 2% of the total fast jet force. This has jumped up to around 8% today.

The Reds weren’t just a recruitment tool, they were supposed to be ambassadors of the U.K. aviation (and innovation) industry. I’m failing to see how that would be the case now given the apparent disappointment with the T2 and the fact there are no U.K. manufacturers able to build a replacement. Unless the RAF grow in size (which is debatable, if anything it’s likely to shrink) then I don’t see how the MOD will keep justifying their existence, certainly not as a standalone squadron. Having to retire the jets will offers the MOD and Government a get out of jail free card, it can just be blamed on various people rather than the politically unpopular cost cutting exercise. It wasn’t too long ago that they still had their own airfield, when that was closed it was politically unpopular locally - partly due to its heritage but out of the plethora of other bomber command airfields in Lincolnshire I don’t see what made that so special given the catastrophic loss of life from all!

 

[gabrielhj07]

I continue to be amazed that anybody in government can view defence cuts as remotely acceptable.

 

[pug1]

I continue to be amazed that anybody in government can view defence cuts as remotely acceptable.

I think they’ll invest more, but it’ll be in smarter tech rather than more fast jet aircraft. I had to watch BAe Systems Brough go from a major high skill employer with a facility including its own airfield, to closing a load of sheds to become an ‘innovation zone’ and building a road on the runway. Arguably our ability to manufacture has gone too. Similar story at Woodford which is now a housing estate, scrapping the Nimrod upgrade caused that. We ended up with American kit.

 

[Towers]

Well, of course, the problem with a "European" design is that the French would be all for it as long as it was designed and built in France.

Given the current world climate, I struggle to see how that is any worse than a tie-up with Team Trump?

Europe desperately needs to get its act together defensively, and that unavoidably means collaboration and joint forces across the continent. Failure to take a clear opportunity to back away from military ties with the US, after it has proven itself to no longer be a reliable ally and the UK needs to rebuild ties with Europe, would surely be a crashingly poor decision?

 

[martin butler]

I think they’ll invest more, but it’ll be in smarter tech rather than more fast jet aircraft. I had to watch BAe Systems Brough go from a major high skill employer with a facility including its own airfield, to closing a load of sheds to become an ‘innovation zone’ and building a road on the runway. Arguably our ability to manufacture has gone too. Similar story at Woodford which is now a housing estate, scrapping the Nimrod upgrade caused that. We ended up with American kit.

Without a large input of money and facilities, I doubt if we could alone produce a next generation advanced trainer,

That's why I think it would have to be a pan European venture, with the aircraft becoming the advanced trainer of most of the European air forces, that's the only way it becomes affordable, Especially as most other platforms, ie Alfa jet, M436 etc , will be reaching renewal stage, You can add in other countries, such as Canada, Australia,as potential customers, especially if the US in the meanwhile becomes more insular and trust proves harder to rebuild.

 

[gabrielhj07]

I think they’ll invest more, but it’ll be in smarter tech rather than more fast jet aircraft. I had to watch BAe Systems Brough go from a major high skill employer with a facility including its own airfield, to closing a load of sheds to become an ‘innovation zone’ and building a road on the runway. Arguably our ability to manufacture has gone too. Similar story at Woodford which is now a housing estate, scrapping the Nimrod upgrade caused that. We ended up with American kit.

Or at least that’s what the press release will say. In reality it’ll mean further destruction of our manufacturing abilities, just to end up buying similar kit from foreign suppliers.

 

[pug1]

Without a large input of money and facilities, I doubt if we could alone produce a next generation advanced trainer,

That's why I think it would have to be a pan European venture, with the aircraft becoming the advanced trainer of most of the European air forces, that's the only way it becomes affordable, Especially as most other platforms, ie Alfa jet, M436 etc , will be reaching renewal stage, You can add in other countries, such as Canada, Australia,as potential customers, especially if the US in the meanwhile becomes more insular and trust proves harder to rebuild.

No doubt built under licence at Warton/Salmesbury. Imagine the Red Arrows operating the same type as the Frecce Tricolori or the Patrouille De France. Whatever though, looks like the T1 will be fully retired by 2030 and as there appears to be no replacement until the T2 is phased out I really struggle to see how the Team and Squadron will survive without a shoe in replacement. The T2 appears to be fully utilised and any modifications to enable them to be used as a Reds replacement would be expensive. There are 9 such models operating out of RAF Leeming on a contract to train Qatari pilots, this ends 2027 as things stand but it’s highly likely this contract will be extended.

 

[Ploughman]

Do the Arrows have a secondary role in the event of a War breaking out?

If so is there anything suitable that can do the same tasks.

 

[pug1]

Do the Arrows have a secondary role in the event of a War breaking out?

If so is there anything suitable that can do the same tasks.

No, there were numerous RAF aerobatic display teams in the 50’s and 60’s that were active front line fighter squadrons. The Reds are a display squadron only.

In theory they could create a new team based on the older ways of working. Like painting a few typhoons a different colour and having them as part of one of the front line squadrons. However I’m not sure how well this would integrate into the force now considering they only have just over 100 airframes.

 

[birchesgreen]

The Hawk T1A could carry Sidewinders and had a role during the late Cold War as a back-up air defence asset against the Soviet hoards. Mind you this was after the Falklands when the British tried to hang Sidewinders off everything.