ORR Passenger rail usage statistics April to June 2022 has been published

[Diedinium]

Couldn't find a thread on this, but it looks like the April-June passenger statistics from the ORR have been published:

Main page: https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/passenger-rail-usage/
Direct document link: https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2124/passenger-rail-usage-apr-jun-2022.pdf

Main summary:

• Usage equates to 75.8% of pre-pandemic usage (vs same quarter 3 years ago)
• 332 million journeys made.
• Total passenger revenue at £2.1 billion, 70.8% of pre-pandemic.
• Of note, LNER has recovered to 106% of it's pre-pandemic usage.
• ScotRail records lowest recovery level, at 61% of pre-pandemic usage.
• Advanced tickets continue to sell better than pre-pandemic, at 126% of the pre-pandemic rate.
• Season tickets only selling 33% of pre-pandemic levels.

 

[WatcherZero]

Q1 2022 ridership was also almost exactly double Q1 2021 ridership. Notable exception East Midlands which more than doubled, Hull & Grand Central both up 200% on slow 1st year recoveries, Merseyrail and Caledonian Sleeper both only up 50% on last year, C2C only up 1/3rd (though cally and C2C had a strong 1st year recovery).

As mentioned Advanced tickets sales massively up 45% of pre-covid in 2021 and to 123.1% in 2022. Combined franchised ticket sales are actually at 95.9% of pre-covid with a lot of refunds being given.
People in London and the South East are on average making 5.8% shorter journeys than three years ago while in the regional franchises the average passenger is travelling 7.6% further (Long Distance -1.3%).

Two biggest fallers in average passenger distance were C2C (-10%) and LNER (-8.9%). Meanwhile franchises where people are making significantly longer journeys than three years ago GW (16.7%), Northern (16.3%), TfW (15.0%) & Scotrail (11.5%). This may also be reflective of TPE & Cross Country having such a large drop in service capacity.

Value for money seems to have notably increased revenue per passenger km was down 16.1% in Long Distance, 4.0% in LSE and 5.1% in Regional.

On services operated TFL, London Overground, East Midlands & LNER all ran more services than they did pre-covid though there isnt any correlation between operators running extra services and a rise in usage. Most operators ran 80-90% of pre-covid train mileage, Chiltern, West Coast & Scotrail ran low 70's while the worst drops in capacity were Cross Country (63.5% of pre-covid) and TPE 56.2% of Pre-covid service miles.

 

[Adam Williams]

Advanced tickets continue to sell better than pre-pandemic, at 126% of the pre-pandemic rate.

Is it any wonder when they're almost as flexible as walk-ups with the ever-being-extended Book With Confidence offering?

 

[stuu]

Any ideas why Scotrail is so low?

 

[Hadders]

Any ideas why Scotrail is so low?

Covid policies of the Scottish Government encouraging people not to travel.

 

[Dr Day]

Meanwhile franchises where people are making significantly longer journeys than three years ago GW (16.7%), Northern (16.3%), TfW (15.0%) & Scotrail (11.5%)

These franchises have a mix of very short distance commuting but also some longer distance opportunities. The average journey length will have gone up probably due to the fall off in the shorter distance commuting trips (particularly on season tickets where Lennon assumes something like 10.2 trips on a weekly I believe) rather than necessarily more people making longer trips. That said, the reduction in Cross Country's service will have shifted some trips towards these operators.

 

[ac6000cw]

Main summary:

• Usage equates to 75.8% of pre-pandemic usage (vs same quarter 3 years ago)
• 332 million journeys made.
• Total passenger revenue at £2.1 billion, 70.8% of pre-pandemic.
• Of note, LNER has recovered to 106% of it's pre-pandemic usage.
• ScotRail records lowest recovery level, at 61% of pre-pandemic usage.
• Advanced tickets continue to sell better than pre-pandemic, at 126% of the pre-pandemic rate.
• Season tickets only selling 33% of pre-pandemic levels.

That's a huge drop in revenue, especially in an industry with high fixed costs...

 

[ainsworth74]

Interesting that Lumo have already overtaken HT and are at three quarters of Grand Central (whilst running around half the services of GC).

 

[bib]

If revenue is at 70.8% for 75.8% of journeys that's a lot closer than I'd expected, especially if season tickets are only at 33%. I was under the impression it was currently about 75% of revenue for 90% of journeys, but that may mean that current revenue should be 80-85%. Also I presume the figures for this period will have included the GBR rail sale, which would have reduced the average fare somewhat, but probably added journeys.

Also surprised EMR managed to run more kms than pre-covid given the staffing and timetable issues.

 

[fgwrich]

Any ideas why Scotrail is so low?

Covid policies of the Scottish Government encouraging people not to travel.

Don’t forget ScotRail had largely been on a reduced service timetable until the end of the ASLEF Pay dispute in July. So ScotRail will unfortunately and somewhat unsurprisingly be lower as (partly) a result of that.

 

[Kite159]

Is it any wonder when they're almost as flexible as walk-ups with the ever-being-extended Book With Confidence offering?

Also how they are available for more trains up to the last minute on the likes of Northern for short journeys like Bradford to Leeds or Stockport to Manchester.

The change to passengers using mobile apps to buy on their phone has made it easier for those passengers to buy tickets, especially if they are making a single journey

 

[PringlePopper1]

Worth noting that by certain TOCs just leaving their barriers wide open at numerous stations, they won’t ever get a true reading on actual passenger numbers!

 

[XAM2175]

Covid policies of the Scottish Government encouraging people not to travel.

Don’t forget ScotRail had largely been on a reduced service timetable until the end of the ASLEF Pay dispute in July. So ScotRail will unfortunately and somewhat unsurprisingly be lower as (partly) a result of that.

Yes, I'd agree that the long period of unstable service and reduced timetabling arising from the IR dispute is more likely to be the major cause.