ORR Passenger Data - Jan to March LNER

[donnyrailman]

Morning All,
I was looking over the latest ORR Rail Passenger Usage report (January - March 2023). Good to see growth for many operators. One potential issue which I noticed though was LNER. Journeys between Jan-Mar 2023 were 111% 2019 levels (Figure 1.2), but passenger vehicle kilometres (Figure 5.1) for LNER was only 75%. To me this suggests LNER services are either ridiculously overcrowded or that split ticketing, so creating two journeys when pre-Covid it would have been one, is playing a big role in this data and maybe skewing how much LNER has recovered. Looking at the other two ECML operators in Grand Central and Hull Trains there was journey growth relative to 2019 at 111% and 122% respectively, though vehicle kilometres was 93% and 110%, so as large as a difference as LNER (Imagine Hull at 110% is due to them running 10-car services more now).
Report can be found at https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2207/passenger-rail-usage-jan-mar-2023.pdf

 

[zwk500]

Given the stretch of Donny-York-Durham-Newcastle can be very popular for leisure trips with a wide range of potential customers this doesn't completely surprise me.
I suspect (but am open to correction) that fewer people will be travelling Long distance to London for business, and other strikes won't have helped people commit to long-term (expensive) plans but I can easily imagine the shorter hops which are more flexible have done rather well. Doncaster-Wakefield-Leeds, Donny-York-Newcastle as mentioned above always had reasonably strong traffic on these routes, and with TPE and XC not being overly helpful at providing service LNER will be picking that traffic up. Also the IETs have allowed routes like Harrogate and Lincoln to move to all-day rather than morning/evening.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Split ticketing is seriously skewing the industry figures - LNER is not the only inter city style TOC to experience this.

Having said that, the rise in leisure traffic on the ECML is substantial and, for Hull Trains, that mainly accounts for the increase, their popular trains regularly maxing out.

 

[Bald Rick]

A few things here.

For LNER, passenger vehicle km does not equate to seating capacity. Back in 2019, the Azumas were only just being introduced to replace the HSTs and Class 91 / Mk IV sets. In those earlier trains there are two vehicles that don’t carry any passengers, but counted in the stats. Similarly, the 26m vehicles of the 80x carry a lot more passengers per vehicle on average than the Mark III or Mark IV.

Secondly, when comparing quarterly figures, the impact of strikes and engineering work become more significant than in the annual numbers.

 

[donnyrailman]

A few things here.

For LNER, passenger vehicle km does not equate to seating capacity. Back in 2019, the Azumas were only just being introduced to replace the HSTs and Class 91 / Mk IV sets. In those earlier trains there are two vehicles that don’t carry any passengers, but counted in the stats. Similarly, the 26m vehicles of the 80x carry a lot more passengers per vehicle on average than the Mark III or Mark IV.

Secondly, when comparing quarterly figures, the impact of strikes and engineering work become more significant than in the annual numbers.

Thanks for this! Very interesting

 

[Stephen42]

As well as passenger journeys the same publication includes passenger kilometres (page 13). For LNER that quarter the figure was 99% of passenger km 4 years ago showing how much difference splits and journey pattern changes can make.

 

[Bartsimho]

I see that LNER and EMR are the 2 franchise operators with higher relative usage although EMR drops off in passenger Kilometres suggesting that the Split Ticketing at Kettering was having an effect.
The 2 OAO's with complete statistics also having returned suggests that people want to get back to using the railways but there are aspects which are stopping them whether that be strikes or unreliability is unknown.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Possibly Lumo are having a small effect too - poaching a decent proportion of travellers on long distance journeys between Edinburgh/Newcastle and London passengers but not affecting the vast majority of short or middle distance flows?

 

[Bartsimho]

Possibly Lumo are having a small effect too - poaching a decent proportion flows long distance Edinburgh/Newcastle to London passengers but not affecting the majority of short or middle distance flows?

Yeah there appears from what I can see a liking to Lumo's product. No thrills, full airline style seating, order food on an app not on a trolley and the ability to pre-order food so it can be loaded at origin. Honestly the combination of a Buffet/Counter and and App rather than a trolley service should be the main way of providing food on distance carriers.

 

[Bald Rick]

I see that LNER and EMR are the 2 franchise operators with higher relative usage although EMR drops off in passenger Kilometres suggesting that the Split Ticketing at Kettering was having an effect.

The EMR number reflects the introduction of the Corby electric service, and many Bedford / Luton - London passengers swapping to them ex Thameslink. More passengers, but shorter distance.

 

[43074]

The EMR number reflects the introduction of the Corby electric service, and many Bedford / Luton - London passengers swapping to them ex Thameslink. More passengers, but shorter distance.

I suspect it is also driven by the peaks into Nottingham and Sheffield having recovered well since the pandemic according to GBRTTs periodic market reports.

Also the improved Intercity and Regional timetables compared to before the pandemic will have had an impact so I still don't believe EMR Connect wholly explains what is going on.

Anecdotally there's lots of split ticketing particularly on the Nottingham services which call at Kettering, particularly now the Trainline has made split ticketing more accessible.

 

[jayah]

Morning All,
I was looking over the latest ORR Rail Passenger Usage report (January - March 2023). Good to see growth for many operators. One potential issue which I noticed though was LNER. Journeys between Jan-Mar 2023 were 111% 2019 levels (Figure 1.2), but passenger vehicle kilometres (Figure 5.1) for LNER was only 75%. To me this suggests LNER services are either ridiculously overcrowded or that split ticketing, so creating two journeys when pre-Covid it would have been one, is playing a big role in this data and maybe skewing how much LNER has recovered. Looking at the other two ECML operators in Grand Central and Hull Trains there was journey growth relative to 2019 at 111% and 122% respectively, though vehicle kilometres was 93% and 110%, so as large as a difference as LNER (Imagine Hull at 110% is due to them running 10-car services more now).
Report can be found at https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2207/passenger-rail-usage-jan-mar-2023.pdf

It is a shame most if the document revolves around journey numbers and average distance. Split ticketing, the Elizabeth Line and the shift out of seasons into daily tickets has rendered these measures meaningless.

Real terms revenue is around 70% of pre pandemic. That is not a good basis for investment or pay rises, especially where most long standing operators are running 90% of their previous timetables.

 

[Sleepy]

Yeah there appears from what I can see a liking to Lumo's product. No thrills, full airline style seating, order food on an app not on a trolley and the ability to pre-order food so it can be loaded at origin. Honestly the combination of a Buffet/Counter and and App rather than a trolley service should be the main way of providing food on distance carriers.

Some thrills if you travel through Peterborough a bit too quick ?? I'll get my coat

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I'd be interested to see by TOC their P&Ls, obviously not something published but with all the talk of cuts and were they fall, surely there are TOCs that could argue they should be left alone as they're paying in to the treasury

 

[Clarence Yard]

The DfT has always viewed its TOCs “as one” for budgetary purposes with the Treasury so TOCs have never been able to argue that point.

Now they don’t even have a proper P&L so that “one railway” view is even more entrenched into DfT thinking.