Optimising use of capacity

[eldomtom2]

Does anyone have any specific examples of cases where projections were overly optimistic, with the specific passenger numbers predicted vs actually seen?

 

[yorksrob]

Does anyone have any specific examples of cases where projections were overly optimistic, with the specific passenger numbers predicted vs actually seen?

Sinfin underperformed, however that was some years ago.

 

[Dr Day]

Aylesbury Vale Parkwayhttps://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7997aced915d07d35b6af2/demand-forecasting-report.pdf

This is an old report but provides insight more generally into this topic.

 

[Nottingham59]

Does anyone have any specific examples of cases where projections were overly optimistic, with the specific passenger numbers predicted vs actually seen?

The other issue is that usage projections are not published in any meaningful way.

For instance, I can find no forecasts anywhere in the public domain to say what usage is projected when the EWR service between Oxford and MKC finally starts. There are some indications in some documents which allow you to guess what those projections might be, but nothing that will allow independent observers to judge whether they got it right.

But what I am certain of is that when the service finally starts running is that the TOC and governments will make claims that the usage is exceeding all expectations.

It would be very simple to publish projections for station entries and exits and train loading forecasts for 1, 2, 5 years after opening, which would allow us taxpayers to compare actual usage with projections. But of course that will leave the powers that be hostages to fortune, so they will never do it.

 

[BrianW]

The other issue is that usage projections are not published in any meaningful way.

For instance, I can find no forecasts anywhere in the public domain to say what usage is projected when the EWR service between Oxford and MKC finally starts. There are some indications in some documents which allow you to guess what those projections might be, but nothing that will allow independent observers to judge whether they got it right.

But what I am certain of is that when the service finally starts running is that the TOC and governments will make claims that the usage is exceeding all expectations.

It would be very simple to publish projections for station entries and exits and train loading forecasts for 1, 2, 5 years after opening, which would allow us taxpayers to compare actual usage with projections. But of course that will leave the powers that be hostages to fortune, so they will never do it.

SHARING of that info would be useful. It should help inform/ improve future forecastings and their credibility. Governments tend to like to say they are 'research-led' and informed by the data. Especially IF GBR is to have a kind of stats/ strategy dept/ team (replacing disparate consultants?) they may, over time, be able to present more solid cases for investment, like winning the road/ rail argument??

 

[zwk500]

SHARING of that info would be useful. It should help inform/ improve future forecastings and their credibility. Governments tend to like to say they are 'research-led' and informed by the data. Especially IF GBR is to have a kind of stats/ strategy dept/ team (replacing disparate consultants?) they may, over time, be able to present more solid cases for investment, like winning the road/ rail argument??

NR already has a strategy team, who feed in to the documents on this website: https://www.networkrail.co.uk/our-work/long-term-planning/

Business cases often use commerically sensitive data so either can't be published or are publised with the data redacted. It is also much rarer to have Final Business Cases published than Outline Business Cases, and even OBCs are rarer than Strategic Outline Business Cases. However, they are often included as evidence in planning or funding applications, so many do circulate on the internet.

Reading them correctly is another skill entirely.

Cambridge South SOBC: https://cambridgeshirepeterborough-...siness-cases/Cambridge-South-Station-SOBC.pdf
Cambridge South OBC: https://gat04-live-1517c8a4486c4160...dge_south_outline_business_case80119701_1.pdf
Northumberland Line OBC: https://gat04-live-1517c8a4486c4160...p40_-_outline_business_case_november_2019.pdf

For those not versed in the process, projects start with an SOBC to make the case for something to happen, it will include some initial forecasting to demonstrate there's demand. The next stage is the OBC, when different options are assessed, and demand for them compared to determine which provides the best value. The FBC does a 'deep dive' into the selected option and provides the updated detailed demand, economics, and commercials for the chosen option as a final check before funding and construction is confirmed.
At every stage, there are a range of sensitivity tests so that it's not as simple as a single number being reported, as there are so many factors that may influence demand both within and without the control of the project. Business cases will report the range of numbers, usually as a 'central case' and the variance either side.
For more details see this document: https://assets.publishing.service.g...006/Guidance_on_Developing_Business_Cases.pdf

 

[BrianW]

NR already has a strategy team, who feed in to the documents on this website: https://www.networkrail.co.uk/our-work/long-term-planning/

Business cases often use commerically sensitive data so either can't be published or are publised with the data redacted. It is also much rarer to have Final Business Cases published than Outline Business Cases, and even OBCs are rarer than Strategic Outline Business Cases. However, they are often included as evidence in planning or funding applications, so many do circulate on the internet.

Reading them correctly is another skill entirely.

Cambridge South SOBC: https://cambridgeshirepeterborough-...siness-cases/Cambridge-South-Station-SOBC.pdf
Cambridge South OBC: https://gat04-live-1517c8a4486c4160...dge_south_outline_business_case80119701_1.pdf
Northumberland Line OBC: https://gat04-live-1517c8a4486c4160...p40_-_outline_business_case_november_2019.pdf

For those not versed in the process, projects start with an SOBC to make the case for something to happen, it will include some initial forecasting to demonstrate there's demand. The next stage is the OBC, when different options are assessed, and demand for them compared to determine which provides the best value. The FBC does a 'deep dive' into the selected option and provides the updated detailed demand, economics, and commercials for the chosen option as a final check before funding and construction is confirmed.
At every stage, there are a range of sensitivity tests so that it's not as simple as a single number being reported, as there are so many factors that may influence demand both within and without the control of the project. Business cases will report the range of numbers, usually as a 'central case' and the variance either side.
For more details see this document: https://assets.publishing.service.g...006/Guidance_on_Developing_Business_Cases.pdf

Thank you for this, which I find useful. I am conscious that 'insiders' who contribute to the Forum will exercise care regarding what can be shared, and am appreciative of their informed contributions.

Looking at the NR website which you helpfully link to I see many documents listed, many undated. Each of these represents many person-hours of work, and I can understand the exasperation (?) that may be felt at studies done and gathering dust on a shelf, esp while governments and their ministers 'rotate'. A number of the documents allude to reviewing matters as franchises come to an end. Now that the end of all franchises is nearly here I look forward to seeing more effective national 'joining up', which may run counter to more 'devolution'. The perpetual 'battle'?

 

[cle]

Aylesbury Vale, I am sure, was just built early - unlike many. It was a beneficiary of the Evergreen optimism. Admittedly ridership hasn't exploded, but it does rise and homebuilding in the area (and population in Greater Aylesbury as a whole) - is still aggressive, so I think it'll happen.

I do think a MKC service, once EWR is stood up, would probably be of as much use to many of the local employment patterns (and that is definitely a 'drive' currently)

 

[Bald Rick]

Does anyone have any specific examples of cases where projections were overly optimistic, with the specific passenger numbers predicted vs actually seen?

Famously, the Channel Tunnel.

But there’s lots of others as well.

 

[MattRat]

New bi-modes, whether that be overhead/third rail and diesel, or replace the diesel with batteries, and SDO so you don't have to extend platforms.

Maybe some discontinuous electrification for places where there are no wires.

That would certainly be the cheapest way, although also the least effective over full electrification and longer platforms

 

[BrianW]

New bi-modes, whether that be overhead/third rail and diesel, or replace the diesel with batteries, and SDO so you don't have to extend platforms.

Maybe some discontinuous electrification for places where there are no wires.

That would certainly be the cheapest way, although also the least effective over full electrification and longer platforms

Perhaps the best we can hope for, in 'constrained financial circumstances', is a programme of small incremental gains- where benefits and keeping within budget can be shown.

 

[yorksrob]

Perhaps the best we can hope for, in 'constrained financial circumstances', is a programme of small incremental gains- where benefits and keeping within budget can be shown.

Platform extensions and longer trains by keeping on older stock for longer.

 

[The Planner]

Platform extensions and longer trains by keeping on older stock for longer.

The railway isn't a museum, if we can replace stock, we should be.

 

[yorksrob]

The railway isn't a museum, if we can replace stock, we should be.

That's rather the point isn't it ? We cant afford to increase the volume of rolling stock whilst replacing it as well, so the existing stuff will have to last longer to bolster capacity.

 

[eldomtom2]

Famously, the Channel Tunnel.

But there’s lots of others as well.

The Channel Tunnel is a very unique case due to its scale and nature, what are some examples of more everyday stations and lines that fell short of expectations?

 

[Bald Rick]

The Channel Tunnel is a very unique case due to its scale and nature

So is every project.

Aylesbury Vale, East Mids Parkway are the next two obvious (and public) ones. Others that I know of may not be public and therefore i won’t say. But suffice to say that if you can think of a new line / station that hasn’t made a big song anddance about exceeding forecasts, it hasn’t.

 

[eldomtom2]

So is every project.

Aylesbury Vale, East Mids Parkway are the next two obvious (and public) ones. Others that I know of may not be public and therefore i won’t say. But suffice to say that if you can think of a new line / station that hasn’t made a big song anddance about exceeding forecasts, it hasn’t.

Actually East Midlands Parkway did trumpet exceeding first-year projections - though their ambition to get to 500,000 passengers a year did not happen.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8480162.stm

Station beats first year target​

East Midlands Parkway Station, which opened at the beginning of last year, has beaten its target for passengers.
The £25m train station, near Junction 24 of the M1, was used by more than 250,000 people in the first 12 months.
A decade in the making, the station is intended to take traffic off the motorway and serve the nearby airport.
East Midlands Trains said it was pleased with the results and it was aiming to double passenger numbers within five years.

Aylesbury Vale Parkway is not actually an instance of projections overestimating demand. The reason it did not meet projections was that a planned large-scale housing development did not occur due to the recession. I found a 2010 report on station passenger projection that found that once this was taken into account the methodology used to create the projections for Aylesbury Vale actually underestimated demand.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/3932/demand-forecasting-report.pdf

5.10 The economic recession and its impact on the construction industry resulted in the stalling of housing development at Berryfields MDA, with no houses completed before 2008/9.
5.11 A review of the other drivers of demand indicated that the original estimates of existing population were appropriate, and the train service delivered was consistent with that assumed in the forecasts.
5.12 However, a review of developments in the area based on published information showed that whilst the development of Berryfields MDA has stalled, construction of houses at Weedon Hill is underway, with 328 houses completed by the end of 2008, many of which are occupied (Source:http://www.aylesburyvaleadvantage.co.uk/2009/07/weedon-hill/)
5.13 A revised demand forecast was therefore prepared for Aylesbury Vale Parkway, which excluded Berryfields but included Weedon Hill. Other variables remained unchanged. The backcasting exercise resulted in a revised forecast of 12,700 journeys in 2008/9 (achieved by factoring down the revised full year forecast of 41,400 passenger journeys), which is consistent with the actual demand.
5.14 Latterly the LENNON passenger journeys data for 2009/10 has been made available, which shows that 49,400 journeys were made, which shows that the station is actually over-performing compared to the forecasts.

 

[Bald Rick]

Actually East Midlands Parkway did trumpet exceeding first-year projections - though their ambition to get to 500,000 passengers a year did not happen.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8480162.stm

Aylesbury Vale Parkway is not actually an instance of projections overestimating demand. The reason it did not meet projections was that a planned large-scale housing development did not occur due to the recession. I found a 2010 report on station passenger projection that found that once this was taken into account the methodology used to create the projections for Aylesbury Vale actually underestimated demand.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/3932/demand-forecasting-report.pdf

So you agree both have failed to meet their demand forecasts.

 

[yorksrob]

So is every project.

Aylesbury Vale, East Mids Parkway are the next two obvious (and public) ones. Others that I know of may not be public and therefore i won’t say. But suffice to say that if you can think of a new line / station that hasn’t made a big song anddance about exceeding forecasts, it hasn’t.

Aren't those Parkway stations designed to attract motorists who in truth already have access to a station ?

That's a very different market to reconnecting towns to the rail network such as Okehampton, Portishead etc.

 

[brad465]

Raise the linespeeds in and out of major termini and key through stations. Trains leave platforms faster, making them available sooner for the next train. The Kings Cross remodelling did this, raising from 15mph to 20/25mph (in vs out), while Paddington manages a 40mph exit speed. Stations like Birmingham New Street (10mph all lines), London Victoria (15-20mph), Charing Cross (15mph), Waterloo (15mph), Glasgow Central (15mph), for example, could all do with faster entry/exit speeds to improve platform capacity.

 

[Bald Rick]

Stations like Birmingham New Street (10mph all lines), London Victoria (15-20mph), Charing Cross (15mph), Waterloo (15mph), Glasgow Central (15mph), for example, could all do with faster entry/exit speeds to improve platform capacity.

Damn those laws of physics.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Jul 2026 ==

Aren't those Parkway stations designed to attract motorists who in truth already have access to a station ?

So you agree they have failed to meet their forecasts?

 

[brad465]

Damn those laws of physics.

If you're suggesting the geometry isn't up for it, then do a Kings Cross on them to make it so (pity they're not doing this for Charing X as part of the imminent track renewal). Apparently Birmingham New Street is all setup for a higher speed than 10mph already, but for some reason never got uprated.

 

[Bald Rick]

If you're suggesting the geometry isn't up for it, then do a Kings Cross on them to make it so (pity they're not doing this for Charing X as part of the imminent track renewal)

It’s not that simple, due to signalling issues and (in CHX’s case) the bridge. Besides, for CHX the capacity issue is not the station or approaches.

Apparently Birmingham New Street is all setup for a higher speed than 10mph already, but for some reason never got uprated.

The track is good for 20mph geometrically, however the layout / signalling complexity prevents it for inbound services. To sort that means taking out lots of sets of points, and removing some of the A/B end flexibility, and that means taking servcies out. There is still the possibility of 20mph for outbound.

Waterloo is constrained by the geometry / signalling complexity too, as is most of Victoria. Glasgow I can’t comment on, but I imagine it’s due to the bridge.

 

[The Planner]

It’s not that simple, due to signalling issues and (in CHX’s case) the bridge. Besides, for CHX the capacity issue is not the station or approaches.



The track is good for 20mph geometrically, however the layout / signalling complexity prevents it for inbound services. To sort that means taking out lots of sets of points, and removing some of the A/B end flexibility, and that means taking servcies out. There is still the possibility of 20mph for outbound.

Waterloo is constrained by the geometry / signalling complexity too, as is most of Victoria. Glasgow I can’t comment on, but I imagine it’s due to the bridge.

15mph is the proposal now.

 

[Bald Rick]

15mph is the proposal now.

Ah, thanks.

 

[Harpo]

The railway isn't a museum

Signalboxes aside.

 

[zwk500]

If you're suggesting the geometry isn't up for it, then do a Kings Cross on them to make it so (pity they're not doing this for Charing X as part of the imminent track renewal). Apparently Birmingham New Street is all setup for a higher speed than 10mph already, but for some reason never got uprated.

How would you 'do a King's Cross (i.e. widen the layout *entirely within* the existing railway boundary) on any of the Southern Region terminals?

 

[The exile]

That's rather the point isn't it ? We cant afford to increase the volume of rolling stock whilst replacing it as well, so the existing stuff will have to last longer to bolster capacity.

Retaining the option to retain older stock when new stock is introduced, together with options on additional quantities of that new stock is a very good way of having a margin for growth without committing yourself in advance of that growth. It also gives you a fallback if the new fleet proves as troublesome as many do.
It’s sensible planning - not treating anything like a museum, even if, in extremis, museum pieces have their uses.

 

[cle]

How would we collectively classify Ebbsfleet - as success or otherwise?