Mpox: the next pandemic?

[najaB]

Obviously those with a compromised immune system are at greater risk of contracting it (and just about anything), but nowhere in that article can I see it saying that ONLY they are at risk of contracting it. Likewise the longer you spend in contact with an infected person, the greater the risk you have of contracting it, but nowhere in that article does it say that there is ONLY risk with prolonged contact.

Yes, anyone can get any disease. But for it to go epidemic (and hence pandemic) it needs to be highly infectious. Which Mpox isn't (at least not the current variants).

Someone with a healthy immune system is unlikely to get it from short-term casual contact.

 

[Thirteen]

Yes, anyone can get any disease. But for it to go epidemic (and hence pandemic) it needs to be highly infectious. Which Mpox isn't (at least not the current variants).

Someone with a healthy immune system is unlikely to get it from short-term casual contact.

Context is key when it comes to this outbreak. The conditions in the DRC and other regions surrounding it are perfect for Mpox to spread whereas in places outside of Africa, it'll pop up in a handful of places but the Health Agencies are able to deal with it because of vaccines and treatments and also the number of people travelling to and from the affected regions are likely in low numbers.

 

[nw1]

So the balanced answer, I guess, looking at all of the above, is that for various reasons, it's unlikely to be as big a deal as Covid though there is some element of risk to the vulnerable.

Basically, the chance of the spectre of another lockdown (which I doubt the world economy could take anyway given the after-effects of the last one) is presumably very, very low though there may be other more benign measures such as compulsory vaccinations if travelling from certain countries, etc.

But for healthy people there is presumably little cause for concern.

 

[adc82140]

You're led wrongly; the current strain of mpox is transmissible by normal touch as well as coughing and sneezing.

It's spread by touching the infected boils on the skin. I think most people avoid prodding the warts and boils of people they don't know.

You also have be be deliberately coughed or sneezed on in the face by someone infected, so some of the droplets go into your mouth/eyes etc.

I will reiterate, Mpox is NOT an airborne virus unlike Covid which is.

Have a read of this

Now that mpox is a global health emergency, will it trigger another pandemic?

The World Health Organization has declared the ongoing outbreaks of mpox in Congo and elsewhere in Africa to be a global emergency, requiring urgent action to curb the virus’ transmission.

apnews.com

Now that mpox is a global health emergency, will it trigger another pandemic?​

The World Health Organization has declared the mpox outbreaks in Congo and elsewhere in Africa a global emergency. Cases are confirmed among children and adults in more than a dozen countries, and a new form of the virus is spreading. Earlier this week, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared the mpox outbreaks a public health emergency, with more than 500 deaths among over 14,000 cases. It has called for international help to stop the virus’ spread.

By MARIA CHENG

Updated 7:08 PM CEST, August 16, 2024


LONDON (AP) — The World Health Organization has declared the ongoing outbreaks of mpox in Congo and elsewhere in Africa to be a global emergency, requiring urgent action to curb the virus’ transmission.
Sweden has since announced it had found the first case of a new form of mpox previously only seen in Africa in a traveler, while other European health authorities warned more imported cases were likely.
Here’s a look at mpox and how likely it is to spread further:

Is mpox going to trigger another pandemic?​

That seems highly unlikely. Pandemics, including the most recent ones of swine flu and COVID-19, are typically sparked by airborne viruses that spread quickly, including by people who may not be showing symptoms.
Mpox, also known as monkeypox, is spread primarily through close skin-to-skin contact with infected people or their soiled clothes or bedsheets. It often causes visible skin lesions that could make people less likely to be in close contact with others.

To stay safe, experts advise avoiding close physical contact with someone who has lesions resembling mpox, not sharing their utensils, clothing or bedsheets and maintaining good hygiene like regular hand-washing.

On Friday, Europe’s Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said that more imported cases of mpox from Africa were “highly likely,” but the chances of local outbreaks in Europe were very low.
Scientists say the risk to the general population in countries without ongoing mpox outbreaks is low.

How different is mpox from COVID-19?​

Mpox spreads very slowly unlike the coronavirus. Shortly after the coronavirus was identified in China, the number of cases jumped exponentially from several hundred to several thousand; in a single week in January, the case count increased more than tenfold.
By March 2020, when WHO described COVID-19 as a pandemic, there were more than 126,000 infections and 4,600 deaths — about three months after the coronavirus was first identified.

In contrast, it’s taken since 2022 for mpox cases to hit nearly 100,000 infections globally, with about 200 deaths, according to WHO.
There are vaccines and treatments available for mpox unlike in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We have what we need to stop mpox,” said Dr. Chris Beyrer, director of Duke University’s Global Health Institute. “This is not the same situation we faced during COVID when there was no vaccine and no antivirals.”

How quickly will these mpox outbreaks be stopped?​

It’s unclear. The 2022 mpox outbreak in more than 70 countries was slowed within months, thanks largely to vaccination programs and drugs being made available to at-risk populations in rich countries.
At the moment, the majority of mpox cases are in Africa — and 96% of those cases and deaths are in Congo, one of the world’s poorest countries whose health system has mostly collapsed from the strain of malnutrition, cholera and measles. Although Congolese officials requested 4 million vaccines from donors, it has yet to receive any.
Despite WHO declaring mpox a global emergency in 2022, Africa got barely any vaccines or treatments.
Beyrer of Duke University said it was in the world’s interest to invest now in squashing the outbreaks in Africa.

“We are actually in a good place to get control of this pandemic, but we have to make the decision to prioritize Africa,” he said.

 

[najaB]

You also have be be deliberately coughed or sneezed on in the face by someone infected, so some of the droplets go into your mouth/eyes etc.

Not necessarily deliberately, but you'd have to be closer than you would be in any normal social situation.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Given the NHS has largely wound down a recent (national) vaccination programme around this virus - I'd not worry too much unless you fall into the small demographic in the London/Manchester area who partake in the activities described in the eligibility criteria to still have a vaccine.

Mpox

Find out about mpox (previously known as monkeypox), including how you get it, what the symptoms are and what to do if you think you have it.

www.nhs.uk

Who can get an mpox vaccination at a vaccination site

Vaccination sites are offering smallpox vaccination to:

men who are gay, bisexual or have sex with other men, and who have multiple partners, participate in group sex or attend sex-on-premises venues
staff who work at sex-on-premises venues

As of 31 May 2023, over 3,700 cases of mpox have been identified in the UK since 7 May 2022. The majority of these cases have been from the Clade II B.1 lineage and have occurred in gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) without documented history of travel to endemic countries. Further information on the epidemiology of these cases is available in the mpox epidemiological overview and the mpox technical briefings.

I'd suggest that this probably gives some degree of insight to how it is most commonly spreading in the UK, at least up to now.

As I understand it, it's a most unpleasant illness that results from the infection, but can be mostly managed at home over the course of a couple of weeks, with only the most serious of cases requiring hospitalisation. The horrendous blisters it can cause do look like something out of a horror movie though admittedly!

 

[najaB]

Given the NHS has largely wound down a recent (national) vaccination programme around this virus - I'd not worry too much unless you fall into the small demographic in the London/Manchester area who partake in the activities described in the eligibility criteria to still have a vaccine.

I don't think it's quite that simple. The Clade 1b variant is more transmissible so doesn't necessarily require intimate sexual contact. Though it does still require closer contact than would be typical in normal social situations.

 

[Bayum]

I'll admit I'm pretty worried and stressed by it. Not by any risk of the disease but the Government reaction (or overreaction) to it. The BBC article (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gqr5lrpwxo) ends with the statement "As other disease outbreaks have shown, swift international action can help stop the disease spreading further."

I found Covid lockdowns incredibly hard and the restrictions that lasted for years (remember "2 weeks to flatten the curve") and the constant Government lies. I am not sure I could go through that again. Last time it was the Conservatives in Government. I strongly disagree with what they did but I also recall Labour on the sidelines every time calling for more restrictions/longer restrictions/stricter restrictions.

In London with a London major, mask requirements continued on TFL transport for much longer than anywhere else. Similarly in Wales. In short Labour certainly appeared much keener on restrictions (despite now we can see the huge economic damage caused alongside the fact countries without severe restrictions, like Sweden, Iceland and some US states did not seem to suffer any worse than places that did).

Now we have a Labour government I am very worried they will impose restrictions against this - and probably very soon.

No way will they close things down for Monkeypox, especially in the UK. We have enough vaccine, homosexual men have taken up vaccines and the standard of care in the UK is so much better. It’s not an easy disease to pass on unless you’re in direct contact with someone - the vast majority of people become unwell before that.