HS2 - impact of Amersham and Chesham by-election?

[edwin_m]

If I provide you with a list of local estate agents, can you please explain that to them? I've tried and failed, and am fed up with flyers 'we sold this property at £10,000 more than the asking price, how much will we be able to sell your's for?', 'Mr and Mrs X have a budget of £370,000 and have identified your road as one of those that they would be interested in moving to'.

I take little enjoyment in being not the only one who realises that we are heading for a car crash (and fear that some of my relatives will be victims). Besides those living near the HS2 site, whose property may lose value while the construction work goes on, of course.

My solution would be lots of homes to rent (not purchasable) with long term leases; far too many are buying when they can barely afford it.

There would be little point in trying to explain it to estate agents. They are either trapped in the bubble like the rest of the population, or aware there will be a crash coming and they need to make enough money in the meantime to keep afloat afterwards.

 

[geoffk]

My son was helping the Lib Dem campaign in Chesham & Amersham. He tells me that Theresa May may be a candidate for the role of NATO secretary-general when the current one stands down next year, in which case there will be a by-election in Maidenhead. No "HS2 effect" there but I expect there are similar issues around house-building and planning laws which might dent the Tory vote. Tactical voting often has more effect in a by-election than a GE, where it can work both ways.

 

[yorksrob]

I've said it before, but the housing market needs to be structured in such a way as to favour potential owner occupiers over speculative 'investors'.

 

[317 forever]

My son was helping the Lib Dem campaign in Chesham & Amersham. He tells me that Theresa May may be a candidate for the role of NATO secretary-general when the current one stands down next year, in which case there will be a by-election in Maidenhead. No "HS2 effect" there but I expect there are similar issues around house-building and planning laws which might dent the Tory vote. Tactical voting often has more effect in a by-election than a GE, where it can work both ways.

Also, Maidenhead voted Remain - as did Chesham & Amersham, and nearby St Albans recently won by the LibDems.

 

[Typhoon]

My son was helping the Lib Dem campaign in Chesham & Amersham. He tells me that Theresa May may be a candidate for the role of NATO secretary-general when the current one stands down next year, in which case there will be a by-election in Maidenhead. No "HS2 effect" there but I expect there are similar issues around house-building and planning laws which might dent the Tory vote. Tactical voting often has more effect in a by-election than a GE, where it can work both ways.

Wouldn't Johnson have to nominate her? Not only am I not sure whether he would, those he has put forward in the past (Fox, Grayling) have a habit of not getting over the line.

Could, say, Macron or Merkel put her name forward? Now that would be more interesting than a by-election.

 

[Mojo]

I'm not even sure what the anti-HS2 brigade want now. Construction is well underway so there's no chance of it being scrapped and any major changes now would just add to costs and delays. Maybe they want to increase the budget just so that they can complain about the budget going up.

As someone who has someone that has HS2 less than 400m from his house, much of my objections resolve around things that are still up in the air and able to be changed, such as HGV routes, footpath, Bridleway & road closures and of course the woefully appalling levels of information on construction and disgraceful communication from HS2.

One big key issue round my way is the fact HS2 are only offering £50 for purchase of subsoil rights.

 

[Typhoon]

As someone who has someone that has HS2 less than 400m from his house, much of my objections resolve around things that are still up in the air and able to be changed, such as HGV routes, footpath, Bridleway & road closures and of course the woefully appalling levels of information on construction and disgraceful communication from HS2.

One big key issue round my way is the fact HS2 are only offering £50 for purchase of subsoil rights.

Guessing that your MP is Mr Butler. I had a quick trawl through his website, he appears to have attended a few meetings and asked Johnson a couple of questions (pointless) but this tweets seem to concentrate on how wonderful everything is generally. I haven't found evidence of anything happening. The local association are worse, they still think Justine Greening is Transport Secretary.

This would seem like the sort of area LibDems could do alright in. General complacency (some Tory councillors have poor attendance records - although there may be reasons), they have a sound base of councillors and an issue which will affect a sizeable number of constituents one way or another on which they can campaign, and it is effectively a campaign against the government.

 

[brad465]

There would be little point in trying to explain it to estate agents. They are either trapped in the bubble like the rest of the population, or aware there will be a crash coming and they need to make enough money in the meantime to keep afloat afterwards.

I've said it before, but the housing market needs to be structured in such a way as to favour potential owner occupiers over speculative 'investors'.

This may warrant a thread in itself, but I strongly believe an almighty overdue financial crisis is on the way, because we never learned from 2008, we simply put the broken system on life support in the form of ultra-low interest rates and money-printing (QE). These have put the housing market in a massive bubble, along with stock markets, and in particular there is a debt crisis that has major ramifications if interest rates have to rise to combat high inflation, or if they don't rise and inflation is left unchecked that will cause other problems; we're talking public debt at around 100% of GDP and private debt over 200% of GDP here.

If this does happen before the next election though such a crisis will easily cost Tory votes, especially in the southern heartlands, and if opposition parties do come up with an alternative way of doing things that wins them over.

 

[Mojo]

Guessing that your MP is Mr Butler. I had a quick trawl through his website, he appears to have attended a few meetings and asked Johnson a couple of questions (pointless) but this tweets seem to concentrate on how wonderful everything is generally. I haven't found evidence of anything happening. The local association are worse, they still think Justine Greening is Transport Secretary.

It isn’t, where is he the MP for. Never heard of him! I live in London, much of my local area is in Boris’ constituency but I’m just over the border in another seat.

 

[Horizon22]

HS2 played a minor/moderate part in this by-election. I know people that campaigned there and yes it was an issue (although more the disruption and subsequent lack of local consultation as opposed to the whole project). And I think it was generally opposed by all in a bit of a sad NIMBY attempt because being for it would probably be roundly criticised.

Planning reforms were a bigger issue as was a wider trend against well-off Home Counties voters deserting the current form of the Conservative party as it is currently portraying itself. I think Tories across the South East should be rightly concerned in some key places where the LDs have gradually been regaining ground and are a strong 2nd and challenging seats with majorities of lower than 10,000 (which includes Raab & Redwood).

 

[Typhoon]

It isn’t, where is he the MP for. Never heard of him! I live in London, much of my local area is in Boris’ constituency but I’m just over the border in another seat.

MP for Aylesbury - sorry took the image as a clue! I just hope that you get rather more support than the people of Aylesbury. As is ever the case, decisions are made, people are told to move on, the media go away while those on the ground are left to make the best of it. It is not just Brexit and HS2, there are numerous incidents of flooding, large factory closures, issues with cladding on flats. If the LibDems (or anyone else) wants to make a mark, it is areas like these which make a difference to residents.

Planning reforms were a bigger issue as was a wider trend against well-off Home Counties voters deserting the current form of the Conservative party as it is currently portraying itself. I think Tories across the South East should be rightly concerned in some key places where the LDs have gradually been regaining ground and are a strong 2nd and challenging seats with majorities of lower than 10,000 (which includes Raab & Redwood).

The LibDems targeted Raab last time around because his seat was 'Remain', not quite enough votes to unseat him, maybe next? I suspect Redwood likes being an MP too much to stand down next time and he does seem to be redefining himself into a slightly greener version (complete with concern over housing). I fear that the media may be trying to make this into a bigger story than it is; Broadcasting House (Radio 4) went hunting about in Tunbridge Wells on Sunday as though it might be the next to switch. True the Conservatives lost control (just) in the district council elections but there is a substantial group of independents who represent Wealden villages who have said they will not support the LibDems. There is a danger that the LibDems spread their efforts too widely and fall short. maybe it would be wise to concentrate on the Thames Valley and Surrey.

 

[Busaholic]

MP for Aylesbury - sorry took the image as a clue! I just hope that you get rather more support than the people of Aylesbury. As is ever the case, decisions are made, people are told to move on, the media go away while those on the ground are left to make the best of it. It is not just Brexit and HS2, there are numerous incidents of flooding, large factory closures, issues with cladding on flats. If the LibDems (or anyone else) wants to make a mark, it is areas like these which make a difference to residents.


The LibDems targeted Raab last time around because his seat was 'Remain', not quite enough votes to unseat him, maybe next? I suspect Redwood likes being an MP too much to stand down next time and he does seem to be redefining himself into a slightly greener version (complete with concern over housing). I fear that the media may be trying to make this into a bigger story than it is; Broadcasting House (Radio 4) went hunting about in Tunbridge Wells on Sunday as though it might be the next to switch. True the Conservatives lost control (just) in the district council elections but there is a substantial group of independents who represent Wealden villages who have said they will not support the LibDems. There is a danger that the LibDems spread their efforts too widely and fall short. maybe it would be wise to concentrate on the Thames Valley and Surrey.

Have to say my experience of 'independents' on local councils long term is that they generally fall into two camps:
(A) Tories by any other name, especially when elected unopposed and/or are farmers;
(B) They'll make their votes available to the highest bidder, usually the controlling group on the council, and often enter into coalition with them. Many have been expelled from their previous party (one I knew from four national parties!).

I absolutely acknowledge that some ex-party independents left their parties for very honourable reasons, but unfortunately they rarely stay the course, either because life is made intolerable for them or the party machine kicks in and regains the seat for that party. There are also 'one issue independents' who might get elected on pressing local issues, like hospitals and HS2, and some interesting mavericks who defy all labels and are mentally tough as old boots! Those ones are worth their weight in gold imo, but are voices in the wilderness.

 

[Horizon22]

MP for Aylesbury - sorry took the image as a clue! I just hope that you get rather more support than the people of Aylesbury. As is ever the case, decisions are made, people are told to move on, the media go away while those on the ground are left to make the best of it. It is not just Brexit and HS2, there are numerous incidents of flooding, large factory closures, issues with cladding on flats. If the LibDems (or anyone else) wants to make a mark, it is areas like these which make a difference to residents.


The LibDems targeted Raab last time around because his seat was 'Remain', not quite enough votes to unseat him, maybe next? I suspect Redwood likes being an MP too much to stand down next time and he does seem to be redefining himself into a slightly greener version (complete with concern over housing). I fear that the media may be trying to make this into a bigger story than it is; Broadcasting House (Radio 4) went hunting about in Tunbridge Wells on Sunday as though it might be the next to switch. True the Conservatives lost control (just) in the district council elections but there is a substantial group of independents who represent Wealden villages who have said they will not support the LibDems. There is a danger that the LibDems spread their efforts too widely and fall short. maybe it would be wise to concentrate on the Thames Valley and Surrey.

Well that is indeed a major problem. The Lib Dems did somewhat get delusions of grandeur in 2019 with Swinson and “Revoke” and over-stretched dramatically and got exactly what traditionally LDs try NOT to do in an electoral system stacked against - loads of good 2nd places.

A good focus on the winnable seats rather than a scattergun approach for Cities of London & Westminster or Kensington (as 2019 examples) and they can easily double their seats or even reach 30-40 again; mainly poaching them from the Tories

 

[BrianW]

What does Amersham & Chesham mean for Rail more generally, if anything.
It tells me folk love the train if it serves them. Chesham 2tph to Baker St and Aldgate; Amersham 4tph and 3ph to Marylebone ... with a comfortable seat ... and reliable ...
HS2?
Plus if you have a lovely house in Metroland, built on formerly lovely fields, why would you want others to enjoy the same.
NIMBY voters all.
No HS3; instead best for all and soon in all those Blue wall seats (eg Blyth, Darlington, Derbyshire ... )and now in the Yellow wall too. Not Crossrail 2 but promises for every Tory seat as marginal as Chesham.

 

[Typhoon]

Well that is indeed a major problem. The Lib Dems did somewhat get delusions of grandeur in 2019 with Swinson and “Revoke” and over-stretched dramatically and got exactly what traditionally LDs try NOT to do in an electoral system stacked against - loads of good 2nd places.

A good focus on the winnable seats rather than a scattergun approach for Cities of London & Westminster or Kensington (as 2019 examples) and they can easily double their seats or even reach 30-40 again; mainly poaching them from the Tories

I had forgotten about Kensington, that was insane. Labour won in 2017, defeating the incumbent Tory, a Labour win in Kensington being a highpoint for Corbyn. Of course, the Tories would want to win it back, equally Labour would want to hold on so I guess the constituency was flooded with campaigners for these parties, exactly what they don't want. Meanwhile in Carshalton, they lost a seat they had held since 1997, where Labour was a distant third. They were not that far away in Guildford, again Labour not in contention and the previous Tory threatening to split the Blue vote. As you say, they need to build up gradually or they are in danger of being knocked back down again. next time it might be harder to recover, I haven't checked but I get the impression that there are quite a few who aren't really established in their seat.

Have to say my experience of 'independents' on local councils long term is that they generally fall into two camps:
(A) Tories by any other name, especially when elected unopposed and/or are farmers;
(B) They'll make their votes available to the highest bidder, usually the controlling group on the council, and often enter into coalition with them. Many have been expelled from their previous party (one I knew from four national parties!).

I absolutely acknowledge that some ex-party independents left their parties for very honourable reasons, but unfortunately they rarely stay the course, either because life is made intolerable for them or the party machine kicks in and regains the seat for that party. There are also 'one issue independents' who might get elected on pressing local issues, like hospitals and HS2, and some interesting mavericks who defy all labels and are mentally tough as old boots! Those ones are worth their weight in gold imo, but are voices in the wilderness.

What is true of the Tunbridge Wells independents and several others is that they are a 'group' in their own right, so they are not selling one vote but (in their case) 5; there is a similar group in Swale led by a former UKIP councillor.

 

[Busaholic]

What is true of the Tunbridge Wells independents and several others is that they are a 'group' in their own right, so they are not selling one vote but (in their case) 5; there is a similar group in Swale led by a former UKIP councillor.

The one I referenced in Cornwall had been in Labour, LibDem. Mebyon Kernow then UKIP!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I was amused at the time when a woman complained that "too much was being done for the North"..