How will new travel patterns affect the Railway?

[mrcheek]

Some major pessimism in this thread.

I dont think much will change. Trains will be quieter for a while. But passenger growth has been the norm for some time, and I think numbers will recover in a few years just through that natural growth, compensating for declines elsewhere.

No lines will be closed. But it may mean some proposed reopenings get put on the backburner.

And there probably wont be any orders for new trains for a while. But then again, there wouldnt have been many anyway, since so much has been replaced recently, or is already in the process of being replaced.

Rail enthusiasts will get more and more miserable and depressed! Until they start to travel again, and realise that its much easier to get a seat with a table....

 

[43096]

I would say we may see something like:
- DOO (without OBS) on all local trains
- DCO (with OBS) on all InterCity type trains
(i.e. the complete abolition of the Guard grade)

- Mass ticket office closures, ticketing to be via TVMs and online/mobile only other than at very large major stations
- Reduction in platform staff, with driver self dispatch becoming the norm
- Rationalisation of excessive frequencies, e.g. the likes of 6tph across the Pennines down to a more sensible 4 but with longer trains
- Removal of peak extras, with an all day Takt being operated due to reduced commuter demand (i.e. all-week Saturday style timetables)
- A new fare system which will be overall revenue positive to reduce subsidy

If any of this triggers strikes we may see legislation to ban them; we are talking about Tories here.

There is also possibly the risk of closure of a small number of "token" routes. The Conwy Valley may well be safe because the Welsh Government are responsible for it, not Westminster, but I would suggest that the likes of the middle bit of the Cumbrian Coast or the Whitby branch could well be vulnerable, as could any route requiring considerable sums of money spending on it e.g. the way the S&C did a few years ago.

We might see HS2 canned or descoped, but as the funding model for that is mostly borrowing from future fares income probably not. Similar for EWR (the building of which is likely to save the Marston Vale which might otherwise be a closure candidate).

If I was the Government I would do it now, whilst so few passengers are travelling especially on commuter lines. I’d start by forcing through DOO on SWR in a very simple way: either sign new contracts with it included or you go. When the unions kick off, let them strike or whatever - it will have a very small impact. Once the drivers are signed up, the guards are irrelevant anyway; just go DOO.

One positive side-effect of Covid may well be much reduced union power. A good chunk of London commuters know they can work from home for weeks at a time. The unions can’t disrupt that.

 

[Ianno87]

Some major pessimism in this thread.

I dont think much will change. Trains will be quieter for a while. But passenger growth has been the norm for some time, and I think numbers will recover in a few years just through that natural growth, compensating for declines elsewhere.

No lines will be closed. But it may mean some proposed reopenings get put on the backburner.

And there probably wont be any orders for new trains for a while. But then again, there wouldnt have been many anyway, since so much has been replaced recently, or is already in the process of being replaced.

Rail enthusiasts will get more and more miserable and depressed! Until they start to travel again, and realise that its much easier to get a seat with a table....

Leisure travel may bounce back stronger than ever. A combination of people being cooped up at home/in cars/increasingly chronic congestion for months in end, plus trains in the traditional "peak" times being suddenly much less on demand, giving more flexibility for, say, a day out in London.

 

[squizzler]

I am quite bullish too, not least because the justification for family car seems to be evaporating, even amongst actual families:
Shopping. People are habituated to do grocery shopping online to a much greater extent, and even before covid, the 'hypermarket' style of grocer was in apparent decline in favour of neighbourhood convenience stores.
Commuting. White collar workers are doing less of it, aren't they. Cities are replacing the carriageways withe
Leisure travel. The perceived advantage of motoring for leisure travel has been increased by government messaging on covid, but households are likely to live in local bubbles to a greater extent for the time being, with fewer leisure trips.

As the bills start to come in, for many households will likely choose to become car-lite. Couple this disruption to the expensive transition to electric cars (equivalent disruption to dieselisation of the 1950's) consumers will have to start making shortly, and the recession that will happen over the next few years. I suggest that as the current car fleet comes to the end of its life and needs replacing, the 'R-number' for motorcars will be below 1 for the time being.

These people are the audience for innovative new transport services like the railways, what futurologists refer to as micro-mobility (or scooters as we call them), and shared motorcars of various formats. These all exist, and the next innovation will be the advent of Mobility as a Service MaaS.

 

[PeterC]

I suspect that a lot of companies will return to a presenteeism culture over the next year or so and commuting will pick up more than people here are forecasting although not to 2019 levels.

 

[ScottGallagher]

What might save both of those lines is politics. The Cumbrian Coast line would fall under Copeland or Barrow and Furness (both marginal seats), and the Whitby line is mostly in Scarborough and Whitby constituency (which Labour could win in a good year especially if local issues played a role).

My suspicion is that any branches which close will be in much safer seats - perhaps the Looe Valley?

Copeland MP is Trudy Harrison who is PPS to Boris Johnson so Cumbrian Coast line pretty unlikely to close for that reason alone, let alone Sellafield/BNFL having their 2p worth. What's more likely is reducing the frequencies back to Serco franchise era levels and binning the Sunday service

 

[Bletchleyite]

Copeland MP is Trudy Harrison who is PPS to Boris Johnson so Cumbrian Coast line pretty unlikely to close for that reason alone, let alone Sellafield/BNFL having their 2p worth. What's more likely is reducing the frequencies back to Serco franchise era levels and binning the Sunday service

I'll be honest, I was surprised that they put it to hourly throughout. Two-hourly probably seems nearer what I'd expect it to be, i.e. alternate a Manchester Airport-Barrow with a Lancaster-Carlisle, and add in services between those from Whitehaven north to make that bit hourly.

 

[Ianigsy]

I suspect that a lot of companies will return to a presenteeism culture over the next year or so and commuting will pick up more than people here are forecasting although not to 2019 levels.

My employers advised the week before last that nobody currently working from home (about 80% of the payroll) will be allowed to come back in for the foreseeable future- the main risk is perceived as being home workers bringing the virus into our main offices. The next update is expected in October.

Rural services are probably in a better position than they might have been 10 years ago, not least because of the amount that's being spent on PRM modifications to stations and stock. If commuting doesn't pick up soon, however, I think we could see a thinning of services cascading some stock to eliminate 20th century units.

 

[tbwbear]

I would think that over the medium term (is that 4-5 years ?) we are probably looking at a return to only 50 to 70% of 2019 passenger levels.

Predicting the exact numbers is almost impossible, of course, but there must be enough evidence now mounting to suggest that many people’s commuting patterns have changed for good. Long distance business travel should also be impacted negatively too.

I think that many people are making the mistake of thinking that because these changes have happened so quickly, they cannot be permanent. They can be and I think they probably will be.

I would have thought that a reduction in train frequency is inevitable (2 trains an hour to Manchester etc…) and the weekend timetable on commuter routes mentioned above would seem to be the way to go. With all the frequency cuts would come some job losses too presumably? More DOO, possibly but I don’t see any line closures; too much of a political hot potato. In fact I still think "reversing Beeching" may even continue.

The big positives will be a much more reliable network with less trains running, and a reduction in the age of rolling stock as older trains are withdrawn. IIRC the Midland Main Line got its first batch of HSTs because the recession of the early 80s reduced demand for them on the Western Region. I would expect a lot of things like that to happen. Azumas on the Whitby branch etc.. (just joking)

In order to manage all these changes I would expect that the government will have to quickly follow through on its plan to centralise control, probably also reducing the role of the private sector significantly, if temporarily.

I suspect we will end up with a lot of managed concessions where the concessionaires are increasingly publically-owned a la Northern or LNER.

 

[PeterC]

My employers advised the week before last that nobody currently working from home (about 80% of the payroll) will be allowed to come back in for the foreseeable future- the main risk is perceived as being home workers bringing the virus into our main offices. The next update is expected in October.

Rural services are probably in a better position than they might have been 10 years ago, not least because of the amount that's being spent on PRM modifications to stations and stock. If commuting doesn't pick up soon, however, I think we could see a thinning of services cascading some stock to eliminate 20th century units.

I was posting about changes over a 1 to 2 year period, not the next few months.

 

[158756]

Leisure travel may bounce back stronger than ever. A combination of people being cooped up at home/in cars/increasingly chronic congestion for months in end, plus trains in the traditional "peak" times being suddenly much less on demand, giving more flexibility for, say, a day out in London.

Maybe, but any pent up demand for leisure travel this year will be going on the roads. By next summer the effects of the recession will probably more than balance out any post-lockdown holiday bounce.

Given the TOCs dire financial straits any spare capacity won't be running around for long once the government drops social distancing.

 

[stj]

Maybe the Railways will end up like they did after WW2 and nationalised.If revenue does not come in TOCS could easily go bankrupt.

 

[Tio Terry]

Remember, if you can do your job from home, over the internet, then that job can also be done in somewhere like India or Eastern Europe for less than you are being paid. You could find your job being off-shored! If that starts to happen on a large enough scale then there will be more people without jobs to go to even for fewer days a week so fewer commuters. Couple that with increased use of technology such as video conferencing and the future for ever increasing demand for rail travel, such as that seen over the past 20 years or so, is bound to reduce.