How could TfW replace their older rolling stock?

[Bikeman78]

When the production line in Newport is still open, the sensible thing will be more 2 coach 197s. Maybe modified to remove the catering cupboard.

It would save money in the long-run as the depots won't have to carry various spare parts for the ageing 153s & 230s and will allow more flexibility.

I would argue for more three cars. Assuming that all Swansea to Manchester trains are to be five cars. I'd also put ERTMS into a few more two cars, if not all of them.

Another thing to consider is where to maintain them. Chester will not cope with more than the 56 units already planned to be based there.

 

[Kite159]

I would argue for more three cars. Assuming that all Swansea to Manchester trains are to be five cars. I'd also put ERTMS into a few more two cars, if not all of them.

Another thing to consider is where to maintain them. Chester will not cope with more than the 56 units already planned to be based there.

Maybe TfW can create another depot for 197s in South Wales, or will Canton have space once the 150s depart as the new trams are being maintained at Taffs Well

More 3 coach units would probably be a good call, especially as more of the Cardiff - Holyhead services can be formed of 5 coach sets, with the freed up 2 coach units used for those routes which only take 2 coaches or when 2 coaches is more than enough (Heart of Wales)

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As for creating 5 coach Flirts, will they have enough fuel to cope with the distances involved?

 

[Lewisham2221]

Why not the Cambrian? ERTMS aside it's pretty similar to everywhere else on the network, and 197s should be fine - so long as enough of them are available.

Sorry, was just thinking out loud, so to speak. I didn't mean there anything wrong with having 197s on the Cambrian, I was just suggesting the option of using those 197s as the 153/230/MK4 replacements and then obtaining new stock for the Cambrian. It's definitely the worst one of the options I thinking though, not even sure if it would release enough 197s to replace all the 153/230/Mk4s.

 

[Meerkat]

How stuck with CAF are the Welsh? They tempted them in but now are a bit of a political hostage, like Derby has been for the DfT.

 

[Krokodil]

TfW do not need any trains with first class or buffets/restaurants

They've decided that there's enough potential business travel between Cardiff and Manchester that a premium product is warranted. The Marches is TfW's only profitable route.

Cycle provision isn't important given the mountainous countryside served by TfW

Have you ever actually used a TfW service? Not a day goes by when I'm not trying to accommodate more bikes than there are spaces.

When the production line in Newport is still open, the sensible thing will be more 2 coach 197s

God no, if you're ordering anything from CAF build some centre cars and lengthen the existing fleet.

For the likes of the HoW and Conwy Valley it's clear that 197s aren't up to the job. Some kind of bimode tram-train would be more capable, the more driven axles the better.

Other idea - bimode FLIRT for North Wales - Manchester/Liverpool. There's a decent proportion of the former running under the wires and a capacity boost is really needed.

 

[Caaardiff]

230's & 153's should be replace by 2 car 197's without a doubt.
I'm not sure any of the Flirts have sufficient range for TFW's network outside of their current offerings. 231's fuel range are rubbish, and not sure there's enough wires on the network to send 756's far on the mainline. A few more 3 coach 231's to cover Swanline and some West Wales services would be ideal but that's probably about it.

A long distance Bi-mode like IET's or Class 897 would be good for the Marches, especially if they can be assembled at Newport to keep the factory going. It would be interesting to see how the 897s perform given CAF's reputation in the UK. It could warrant a new CAF depot in the South to support Chester with 197's.

I don't think we can really judge the potential of TFW's marches services just yet. The service provided over recent years has been woefully inadequate. Until the whole fleet is bedded in and the ambitions of minimum 4-5 car services come to fruition, I don't think we'll see the true potential. If the 4-5 cars prove reliable and starts to attract people back to the route, then it certainly may warrant a full review of how TFW run that service.
I think a 5-6 coach IET/897 would be ideal if they can get a decent First spec along with the kitchen. I do think TFW would learn from GWR's mistake and actually provide decent enough seating in First to replace the Mk4 First.

If money was no object then i'd suggest investing in a 5-6 coach fleet big enough to cover the hourly Milford Haven/Manchester route which at a guess would probably be 12-15 units.
Otherwise I see the options as running Swansea - Manchester either hourly, or two-hourly as per the current Mk4 setup but having the fuel range to make it to Swansea. It would make sense to have a more consistent hourly service offering the same product.

This will displace a number of 197's to cover 153's and 230's as well as boost capacity on North Wales - Manchester to 5 cars and have some fitted with ERTM's for a much needed capacity boost on current 158 routes.

In summary:
North Wales - All 197's with North Wales - Manchester being 4-5 coach minimum. Not forgetting TFW's aspirations for additional services along the North Wales Coast to Liverpool.
Mid Wales - More ERTM's 197's with some being 3 cars for peak Cambrian demand and additional capacity to Birmingham.
Heart of Wales & Bidston - 2 car 197s
South Wales - More 231's for Swanline/some West Wales - Cardiff services dependant on range. 5-6 coach with First bi-mode for consistent Marches service and product offering.

No more 197's ordered, just cascaded units from additional orders of other fleets.

 

[Trainbike46]

To be honest, 755s would make more sense than 231s, as they are bimodes so could use OHLE where it is available (e.g. South wales Mainline, Crewe-Manchester, etc.)

Does TfW have any routes where 125 mph running would be advantageous? if so, getting high-speed units like the 897 and 80x would make sense, if not, it would be better to select stock that doesn't include the trade-offs needed for high-speed operation.

Regardless, level boarding is essential, and really should be mandatory on all new stock.

 

[craigybagel]

Does TfW have any routes where 125 mph running would be advantageous?

No. Crewe - Wilmslow is 110, and that's as fast as you'll get on the TfW network. The 197s rarely even reach 100; outside of that above section, there's only a short bit through Pyle, and when approved for Birmingham they should just about hit 100 briefly when heading out to International - and that's it. There's not much point in aiming for anything faster - especially if it came at the cost of poor acceleration. TPE's 802s are pretty sluggish climbing over the Pennines on diesel, but make up for it dashing up the ECML after York. TfW don't have that luxury.

 

[Krokodil]

Given that TfW have admitted that renewing the entire fleet in one go was a mistake, I do wonder what might have been. Keep the 175s and lease the 180s? Let's assume that in this alternate reality all 14 180s were available to lease. If anyone could make those things work reliably, it would have been Alstom Chester. Stick them on Swansea-Manchester and free up 10 175s to allow other services to be strengthened/unsuitable rolling stock removed from other long-distance routes. After a few years (so the South Wales Metro fleet have had a chance to get settled in) then they can look at replacing first the 158s, then the Alstom fleet as each comes up to life expiry.

230's & 153's should be replace by 2 car 197's without a doubt.

Given how the 197s have perfomed on the Conwy Valley in autumn, I suspect that they'll struggle on the Central Wales.

On the Bidstons the long term answer has to be 777/1s, running through around the loop and using a charging rail in Wrexham to boost the batteries. That's probably what will end up happening, just got to get the things to work first.