Election 2024: Predict your local seats

[Busaholic]

Cornwall had six constituencies and will continue with the same number, without any major boundary changes that I'm aware of.

All of Cornwall's MPs are Tories, whereas in 2010 all bar one were LibDems.

The YouGov poll conducted in March made the following predictions;-

South East Cornwall would be retained by the Tories
North East Cornwall would be gained by the LibDems with 32% of the vote against 31% for the Tory incumbent
St Austell and Newquay would fall to Labour, with 34% to Tory 28%
Truro and Falmouth would fall to Labour with 45% against Tory 27%
Camborne and Redruth would fall to Labour with 42% against Tory 28%
St Ives would fall to LibDems with 44%, Tory 24%, Labour 14%

My own thoughts on some of those are that
N.E. Cornwall too close to call
Truro and Falmouth have a lot of university students at Penryn, many of whose votes there may be in doubt by 4th July
Newquay to a lesser extent may lose some university voters
Camborne and Redruth has alternated between the three main parties over the last thirty years, though had significant boundary changes in that time. Ex-Minister of Agriculture George Eustice is standing down, and his family's long-standing business in the area undoubtedly brought him some personal support
St Ives would see the return of Andrew George as its LibDem MP, he having served previously from 1997 to 2015. Over the last three elections he's been the LibDems' brightest prospect in Cornwall, but both Labour and the Greens have increased their vote share. He's currently a LibDem councillor so a by-election will be necessary if everything goes as predicted!

Lastly, I'm not sure Reform were factored in to the predictions but immigration is not on the lips of any significant number of the Brexiteers who've seen exactly what their beloved dogma has done to the fishing industry here.

 

[Thirteen]

I don't live in the Constituency but I am interested to see if Eleanor Stringer who is the Labour candidate for Wimbledon wins, she used to babysit me when I was a kid.

 

[baza585]

Probably worth splitting this out into a new thread, to avoid clogging up the main election thread.

Would be interesting to see what people's thoughts are on local seats and which way they will swing.

So for the general south Hampshire area:

New Forest West and East - Con hold. These have always been Conservative and are predominantly rural with only small towns.
Winchester - Lib Dem gain, with substantial swing and majority. Con majority last time was under 1000, plus incumbent Steve Brine is going anyway.
Southampton Test - Labour hold. Has been Labour since 1997, no reason for that to change.
Southampton Itchen - Labour gain. The more socially-conservative half of the city; the university for example is in Test. Even still it's the kind of seat which I suspect Boris appealed to and is much less likely to vote Tory now he's gone. Plus incumbent Royston Smith is going. Was Labour until 2015, as well.
Romsey and Southampton North - strongly swinging away from the Conservatives as it's a Remain-trending area, however the Con majority is still pretty large. I'll say Con hold, but with small majority.
Eastleigh - more difficult as it was Lib Dem for a good while. Lib Dems still control the council. However Tory majorities in recent years have been quite large, and it's perhaps the sort of seat which has trended Tory in recent years. On the other hand the MP is a first-timer and is not particularly well known. Will say Con hold, but with a much reduced majority.
Hamble Valley [NEW] - the more affluent and slightly more rural part of Eastleigh, including Hedge End. I'll say Con win, but not with a vast majority.
Fareham and Waterlooville - Braverman's seat. Con hold, sadly, though with reduced but still substantial majority.
Gosport - it seems like the sort of place Labour ought to win but they never seem to. Always been Conservative in recent times. So Con hold, but again small majority.
Portsmouth North - Mordaunt's seat. Personal popularity will work for her, I suspect, so I'm going to say she will hold it, but with only a small majority.
Portsmouth South - Labour hold. Has trended Labour in recent years and nothing to suggest that will stop now.
Havant - Con hold, with fairly large majority. Again the sort of seat Labour could have picked up but never had. A fairly socially conservative area by all accounts.

So overall I suspect the Tories will do well in this area, losing only Winchester and Itchen. But it is one of the more Tory-leaning areas of the country.

(All done without checking the odds, I will do so now and see if the bookies agree...)

I agree with most of your predictions. The boundary changes make prediction more difficult but in general you have summed things up well..

Gosport is an interesting seat. Fairly working class town so ought to be fertile ground but historically hasn't been. The Services (particularly the Navy) are a strong influence in the town and my belief is that Gosport folk don't trust Labour on defence policy so don't vote for them. The borough council is Lib Dem. i suspect you are right it will remain blue but it is a difficult seat to read.

Mordaunt will have a real battle to hold on to her seat, which ought to be Labour if you rely just on the demographics. As you say she is popular, though not helped by Sunak being a Saints fan!

I think Eastleigh may go Lib Dem, though the boundary change makes this hard to call. Just a feeling.

We'll know the outcome in a few weeks!

 

[david1212]

Labour hold with a large majority
All of Coventry

Labour hold with increased majority
Warwick and Leamington
( In 2019 Labour only had ~800 more votes than Conservative, this time I predict several thousand )

Labour win from Conservative
Nuneaton
Rugby
( If this is a Conservative hold I predict because of a significant number of votes for Liberal Democrat )

Conservative hold with a large majority
Stratford-upon-Avon
( With Nadhim Zahawi standing down this should be a safe seat whoever is selected )

The two interesting seats are
Kenilworth and Southam
North Warwickshire

Kenilworth and Southam currently has a large Conservative majority. If again both Labour and Liberal Democrats receive a significant proportion of the non Conservative votes the seat will most likely be held. If most votes are for either Conservative or Labour the latter could just win the seat.
I will predict a Conservative hold but a much reduced majority.

North Warwickshire in 2019 had a large Conservative majority but I will predict a Labour gain with a small majority.

 

[nw1]

Labour hold with a large majority
All of Coventry
Nuneaton

To be pedantic Nuneaton is well known as a bellwether seat and has consequently been Tory since 2010, generally with significant majorities.

Strangely though it actually went Labour 5 years before the country as a whole did, in 1992.

 

[Spamcan81]

A bit difficult as we've had boundary changes. Hitchin has been hived off from Hitchin and Harpenden (Tory) and absorbed bits of NE Beds and Mid Beds constituencies to form a new Hitchin constituency. That's mixed up the demographic somewhat.

 

[david1212]

To be pedantic Nuneaton is well known as a bellwether seat and has consequently been Tory since 2010, generally with significant majorities.

Strangely though it actually went Labour 5 years before the country as a whole did, in 1992.

Indeed - I reformatted my post and made an error. Now amended.

2019 was a large majority, 2015 & 2016 were closer. This time I think very likely to be a Labour gain.

 

[DarloRich]

My constituency Milton Keynes South ( in fact all of Milton Keynes) has been gerrymandered sorry redrawn constituency wise.

Milton Keynes South was basically, well, the south part of the MK council area. MK south has been split three ways and for this election the wards of Bletchley East; Bletchley Park; Bletchley West; Tattenhoe and Great Brickhill have been lumped in with Buckingham and Winslow to form Buckingham and Bletchley. In honesty we don't naturally "sit" with Buckingham and have a very different demographic.

The current MP, Ian Stewart ( Conservative) has a majority of 6944 increased from 1665 in the 2017 election and has held the seat since 2010. Labour have an energetic, young, local, Blairish candidate standing and seem very bullish about thier chances.

I find it hard to see as Buckingham was held by the Tories with a 20k+ majority, is solid shire tory and projections suggest a 12.7% swing to Labour will be needed to win the seat.

The other Milton Keynes seats ( North and Central) might have more chance of turning red especially MK Central as labour have a great local councillor ( mine, so I might be biased!) standing and it is a clean sheet election wise.

MK North have a pollster running and he is against the current MK North MP with a similar majority to MK south ( again the lines have changed so comparison is harder)

@Bletchleyite might have a view on this but with the changes to the boundaries I don't know enough to call things.

We find ourselves in the new constituency of East Exeter and Exmouth and I’m struggling to work out which candidate to vote for (I will be voting to cause the current government the maximum possible amount of damage with my one vote).

Does anyone have any thoughts?

Far be it from me to tell someone how to vote ( OK: vote Labour) but you could try: https://tactical.vote/

 

[anothertyke]

I think it is quite likely that the Tories will lose all their nine seats in W Yorks to Labour (as in 1997 and 2001).

 

[D6130]

I think it is quite likely that the Tories will lose all their nine seats in W Yorks to Labour (as in 1997 and 2001).

Hopefully!

 

[anothertyke]

Hopefully!

With so many boundary changes it is not easy to say but I guess the Tories best chance in W Yorks is the new Wetherby seat.

 

[D6130]

With so many boundary changes it is not easy to say but I guess the Tories best chance in W Yorks is the new Wetherby seat.

Does that also cover nearby parts of North Yorkshire?

 

[anothertyke]

Does that also cover nearby parts of North Yorkshire?

Yes it is a whopping great tract of territory running from Harewood and Wetherby (W Yorks) to Tadcaster in the SE and Boroughbridge and Easingwold in the N. Mostly N Yorks by land area, not sure about population. Prosperous. Shelbrooke is standing, the Tory from the Tadcaster part of the seat.

 

[D6130]

Yes it is a whopping great tract of territory running from Harewood and Wetherby (W Yorks) to Tadcaster in the SE and Boroughbridge and Easingwold in the N. Mostly N Yorks by land area, not sure about population. Prosperous. Shelbrooke is standing, the Tory from the Tadcaster part of the seat.

All pretty solid Tory-voting farming and commuter areas then. I would be very surprised - but not at all unhappy - to see a Labour gain there.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I think it is quite likely that the Tories will lose all their nine seats in W Yorks to Labour (as in 1997 and 2001).

I agree this is likely, though Jason McCartney (Colne Valley) is quite popular in the area, so might not lose quite as heavily as some of his colleagues (that is assuming he stands again, I haven't seen any news to the contrary). Colne Valley is a very marginal seat, having switched sides at each of the last two elections.

With so many boundary changes it is not easy to say but I guess the Tories best chance in W Yorks is the new Wetherby seat.

Some of the boundary changes are quite odd, such as the new Denby Dale & Ossett seat which includes a narrow pinch between the two named places, and large areas where I suspect cows significantly outnumber humans. The Conservative candidate is Mark Eastwood who held the Dewsbury seat until the recent dissolution.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I agree this is likely, though Jason McCartney (Colne Valley) is quite popular in the area, so might not lose quite as heavily as some of his colleagues (that is assuming he stands again, I haven't seen any news to the contrary). Colne Valley is a very marginal seat, having switched sides at each of the last two elections.

I was honestly a little bit surprised that he wasn't one of the MPs who defected - he rebelled repeatedly on various votes such as free school meals and more recently how MPs accused of offences should be treated in Parliament. Boundary changes certainly help him by removing an inner Huddersfield ward (Crosland Moor & Netherton) from his seat, making it more rural in nature - though parts of the Colne Valley and towns like Holmfirth seem to be seeing real demographic change (almost akin to Hebden Bridge) so how much it'll help is hard to judge.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I was honestly a little bit surprised that he wasn't one of the MPs who defected - he rebelled repeatedly on various votes such as free school meals and more recently how MPs accused of offences should be treated in Parliament. Boundary changes certainly help him by removing an inner Huddersfield ward (Crosland Moor & Netherton) from his seat, making it more rural in nature - though parts of the Colne Valley and towns like Holmfirth seem to be seeing real demographic change (almost akin to Hebden Bridge) so how much it'll help is hard to judge.

The election being outside of University term times probably helps too... probably not enough to counter just how unpopular the Conservative Party is, mind you!

 

[nr758123]

Jason McCartney (Colne Valley) is quite popular in the area, so might not lose quite as heavily as some of his colleagues (that is assuming he stands again, I haven't seen any news to the contrary). Colne Valley is a very marginal seat, having switched sides at each of the last two elections.

He's a bit marmite.

I was honestly a little bit surprised that he wasn't one of the MPs who defected - he rebelled repeatedly on various votes such as free school meals and more recently how MPs accused of offences should be treated in Parliament. Boundary changes certainly help him by removing an inner Huddersfield ward (Crosland Moor & Netherton) from his seat, making it more rural in nature - though parts of the Colne Valley and towns like Holmfirth seem to be seeing real demographic change (almost akin to Hebden Bridge) so how much it'll help is hard to judge.

He was a Lib Dem candidate elsewhere before joining the Tories, but his relationship with his political opponents locally is, shall we say, a bit combative and I can't see him defecting a second time to join a local Labour party which he is so critical of.

The demographic change you refer to will probably see him gone. Demographic change (if you like, you can call it an influx of Mancunians) in the Colne Valley ward (Marsden, Slaithwaite, Linthwaite) has seen Labour pile up huge majorities in the past couple of years at council elections. Up to about six years ago it had been a Lib Dem stronghold with the occasional independent-minded Tory getting in.

Even Holmfirth now has a full slate of Labour councillors, one of whom is the parliamentary candidate.

 

[nw1]

He's a bit marmite.

Looking up Jason McCartney, I will make the comment that my opinion of him is the opposite of my opinion of Marmite.

 

[317 forever]

I don't live in the Constituency but I am interested to see if Eleanor Stringer who is the Labour candidate for Wimbledon wins, she used to babysit me when I was a kid.

It is interesting that Wimbledon is now a LibDem target. It was Labour in 1997-2005.

 

[telstarbox]

Also interesting that the Lib Dems were nationally stronger during that period too. Strange to find somewhere where Labour are less competitive than they were in the Blair era.

 

[NorthOxonian]

It is interesting that Wimbledon is now a LibDem target. It was Labour in 1997-2005.

See also St Albans (now a LD seat, but formerly Labour). There are also seats like Battersea and Putney which share a lot of traits with strongly Lib Dem seats but where they now perform poorly, largely for historical reasons - being traditionally fairly working class and still having large Labour voting estates.

 

[507021]

Chester North & Neston (my seat): Labour.
Chester South & Eddisbury: Labour.
Mid Cheshire: Labour.
Runcorn & Helsby: Labour.

 

[nw1]

Chester North & Neston (my seat): Labour.
Chester South & Eddisbury: Labour.
Mid Cheshire: Labour.
Runcorn & Helsby: Labour.

Labour for the 2nd and 3rd of these? Have to admit, being rural areas, mostly, I'd expect those to be Tory.

 

[DarloRich]

Looking at some of the other seats I have lived in:

Obvious results:

• Newcastle East: Labour
• Newcastle West: Labour
• Great Yarmouth: Tory hold
• North Devon: Tory Hold ( although some sensible switching from Labour to Lib Dems could maybe get the Tories out)
• Northallerton & Richmondshire: Tory hold (but labour are on 30 odd % which is incredible - it last wasn't Conservative in the 1885 when the Liberals held it)

Open to debate:

• Darlington: I HOPE labour take it back. They should looking at the polls.
• Stockton South ( my old house although in Darlington was not part of Darlington constituency and is now in Stockton South)
• Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor: ( my old house although in Darlington was not part of Darlington constituency and was in the Sedgefield constituency and is now in Stockton South) - Labour gain - I hope)

These three seats are still showing a strong Reform showing. Hopefully that will help get the Tories out! However the Houchen factor may still play a part. What say you @ainsworth74 ?

Returning to my current constituency - Buckingham & Bletchley - it is surprisingly really tight and some recent polling basically has it as a tie. Lib Dem, Reform and Green voters may decide who wins although I don't hold much water by the local polls.

 

[McRhu]

Hamilton and Clyde Valley -> Labour
Scotland as a whole -> Labour majority

 

[Donny Dave]

Scotland as a whole -> Labour majority

I think Scotland will still be a majority for the SNP, but they will be down to about 35-40 seats.

 

[nw1]

I'm going to make a change to my original prediction, if that is allowed.

I'm now going to revise Godalming and Ash and predict Lib Dem gain, and Hunt to lose his seat.

Others unchanged though I now think Mordaunt might now have a wafer thin three-figure majority, and while I'll still say Tory hold for Bournemouth West, I think it'll be damned close.

The Tory mishaps in the past week or so are the reason.