Do we have enough diesel locos and DMUs to last until decarbonisation?

[778]

The class 66s will need replacing at some point (2040s?). Hopefully, more of the network will be electrified by then so I would expect thier replacements to be bi-modes. Also any new shunting locomotives (08s and 09 replacements) should be battery powered. The technology could be perfected with small shunting locos before moving on to bigger trains. I would not expect the 66 replacements to be battery powered though.

By 2040 the railway will be competing with other forms of surface transport that will have been overwhelmingly electrified.
That's the reality.

The railway won't be able to hide it's diesel use behind environmentalist credentials.
There will be little political will to subsidise diesel railway operations which are competing with electrified transport options.

It will be electrification, batteries or closure.

It will probably be electrification, batteries, bi-modes or closure.

I agree with your general point, but I think 2040 is a bit early for electric cars to completely take over the roads (if that is what you mean by surface transport). If the technology improves enough for the road network to be overwhlmingly electrified, there is no reason the rail network could not be as well.

 

[snowball]

I don't see much prospect of decarbonisation of road HGVs. So maybe rail freight will greatly increase even where still diesel-powered.

 

[eldomtom2]

I agree with your general point, but I think 2040 is a bit early for electric cars to completely take over the roads (if that is what you mean by surface transport).

By 2040 new petrol cars will have been banned for a decade. Not much of a case for new diesel trains in that scenario...

 

[AM9]

The class 66s will need replacing at some point (2040s?). Hopefully, more of the network will be electrified by then so I would expect thier replacements to be bi-modes. Also any new shunting locomotives (08s and 09 replacements) should be battery powered. The technology could be perfected with small shunting locos before moving on to bigger trains. I would not expect the 66 replacements to be battery powered though.



It will probably be electrification, batteries, bi-modes or closure.

I agree with your general point, but I think 2040 is a bit early for electric cars to completely take over the roads (if that is what you mean by surface transport). If the technology improves enough for the road network to be overwhlmingly electrified, there is no reason the rail network could not be as well.

By 2040, electric cars will be by far the majority, both in number and even more in total road Km. At about that time, access to fuel roadside will be well into decline as falling demand will make distribution much more expensive. Also, 10 years after the official end date for new IC vehicles, there will be increasing pressure to restrict, (or even remove) ageing polluters, especially from urban areas.

 

[RobShipway]

The class 66s will need replacing at some point (2040s?). Hopefully, more of the network will be electrified by then so I would expect thier replacements to be bi-modes. Also any new shunting locomotives (08s and 09 replacements) should be battery powered. The technology could be perfected with small shunting locos before moving on to bigger trains. I would not expect the 66 replacements to be battery powered though.



It will probably be electrification, batteries, bi-modes or closure.

I agree with your general point, but I think 2040 is a bit early for electric cars to completely take over the roads (if that is what you mean by surface transport). If the technology improves enough for the road network to be overwhlmingly electrified, there is no reason the rail network could not be as well.

The class 66's are starting to be replaced already, that is the idea behind locomotives like the class 93.

 

[D365]

The class 66's are starting to be replaced already, that is the idea behind locomotives like the class 93.

The Class 93s are not replacing any Class 66s. Their performance is not comparable.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Apr 2023 ==

Well, hopefully people in the railways read forums such as these and see that people are showing concerns as to how future fleets aware from electrification will be powered.

Ah! At least now I understand why this speculative subforum appeals so to some.

 

[tomuk]

AFAIK the Power Pack concept is unique to the Stadler FLIRTs. It relies on the articulated design of the unit, with Jacobs bogies shared between cars, and so could not be retrofitted to the British CAF units, which have conventional bogies. In any case the 195/6/7 have mechanical transmission, with Cardan shaft drive to the bogies. It would be unaffordable to replace this with bogie mounted electric traction motors as per the 331 and 397. Pretty much all that would remain of the original vehicle would be the bodyshell, and even that would need modification.

Pendolinos, Voyagers and Meridians use body mounted motors driving through cardan shafts, the Hybrid MTU power packs include a motor between the engine and gearbox. You don't need to use bogie mounted motors.

 

[Bantamzen]

By 2040, electric cars will be by far the majority, both in number and even more in total road Km. At about that time, access to fuel roadside will be well into decline as falling demand will make distribution much more expensive. Also, 10 years after the official end date for new IC vehicles, there will be increasing pressure to restrict, (or even remove) ageing polluters, especially from urban areas.

Assuming of course that the infrastructure is in place to allow easy, accessible charging for everyone, which seems to be sadly lagging at the moment. The same seems to be true of the railways, wiring is painfully slow but incredibly expensive meaning projects that should have long since completely are currently behind expectation or simply shelved. There's no point rushing to replace oil based traction with battery if there's going to an issue keeping them charged. This is an increasing problem with the rush to zero carbon, all eyes are on the big prize solutions, but not on their practicality with our current infrastructure. If that's not sorted then either we have to be honest and admit targets will not be met and work on getting the infrastructure right, or botch it creating plenty of problems in the future which will damage the public's confidence in green energy technologies going forward.

 

[Greybeard33]

Pendolinos, Voyagers and Meridians use body mounted motors driving through cardan shafts, the Hybrid MTU power packs include a motor between the engine and gearbox. You don't need to use bogie mounted motors.

The hybrid MTU power packs are parallel hybrids, driving through a ZF mechanical transmission. The traction motor/generator is on the opposite end of the diesel engine to the gearbox and so the engine is rotating even in electric-only mode. Not very efficient or powerful and only suitable for short distance battery operation to avoid pollution in stations, as opposed to an electro-diesel bi-mode with EMU performance under the wires. See this previous thread:

Potential Order for 20 hybrid 195s for Northern - Speculative discussion

It very much seems this is a "cheap extra stock" thing, but taking into account that the purchase of new "straight" DMUs on new orders may well be somewhat deprecated. Shame, as Northern's WCML routes are crying out for decent bi-modes (769s aren't really up to the - or any - job, sadly)...

www.railforums.co.uk

Pendolinos, Voyagers and Meridians are intercity units with end doors and high floors, giving more space underfloor than in the 195/6/7. Voyager and Meridian engines predate all the exhaust emissions regulations, enabling them to be more compact.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't see much prospect of decarbonisation of road HGVs. So maybe rail freight will greatly increase even where still diesel-powered.

Even if we exclude the eHighway proposals entirely (even the most extensive of which is only 5500 lane-km, compared to 10,000km of unelectrified route kilometres on the railway!), large battery goods vehicles are appearing. Once the transition begins it will likely be over relatively quickly

 

[Mikey C]

I don't see much prospect of decarbonisation of road HGVs. So maybe rail freight will greatly increase even where still diesel-powered.

There's talk of using hydrogen to power HGVs, a much more realistic prospect than hydrogen power cars for the general public.

 

[tomuk]

The hybrid MTU power packs are parallel hybrids, driving through a ZF mechanical transmission. The traction motor/generator is on the opposite end of the diesel engine to the gearbox and so the engine is rotating even in electric-only mode. Not very efficient or powerful and only suitable for short distance battery operation to avoid pollution in stations, as opposed to an electro-diesel bi-mode with EMU performance under the wires. See this previous thread:

Potential Order for 20 hybrid 195s for Northern - Speculative discussion

It very much seems this is a "cheap extra stock" thing, but taking into account that the purchase of new "straight" DMUs on new orders may well be somewhat deprecated. Shame, as Northern's WCML routes are crying out for decent bi-modes (769s aren't really up to the - or any - job, sadly)...

www.railforums.co.uk

Pendolinos, Voyagers and Meridians are intercity units with end doors and high floors, giving more space underfloor than in the 195/6/7. Voyager and Meridian engines predate all the exhaust emissions regulations, enabling them to be more compact.

I'm aware the MTU is a parallel hybrid, its main benefit is reduced fuel consumption through regenerative braking. The point is the motor is body mounted not in the bogies.

The floor height in Pendolinos, Voyagers and Meridians is no different to 195/6/7s and the number and placement of doors has no impact on underfloor space. The 19L QSK19s are a larger engine than the 13L MTU1800 both in capacity and overall size whether they have exhaust after treatment or not. In any case there is plenty of room on the Civitys to replace the diesel engine with a body mounted electric motor if you wanted to, they wouldn't need the unaffordable modifications you suggest to turn the into an emu.