Coronavirus: what impact might it have on the railways?

[AndrewE]

Does flight-shaming really have much impact and would motor-shaming if it ever came about? It's one of those things that probably gets discussed at Hampstead dinner-parties while the rest of the world carries on regardless.

Maybe it's more widespread than you think. Weren't airlines cutting back on flights already before the virus started spreading?

 

[Meerkat]

once you are no longer infectious shouldn't you be able to go about doing whatever you want?

Still a risk that you are a vector from infected to uninfected via contact??

 

[Bletchleyite]

Still a risk that you are a vector from infected to uninfected via contact??

Handwashing should rein that in. However I don't think it's yet a given how long you remain immune after having it.

 

[Meerkat]

Handwashing should rein that in. However I don't think it's yet a given how long you remain immune after having it.

True, but considering how little some care about social distancing would you want to rely on them continuing to wash their hands once they thought they were at no further risk?

 

[Peter Sarf]

I am dealing with these urges by working in my garden and shall go for bike rides...
If you actually get the virus and recover (which most of us will) then once you are no longer infectious shouldn't you be able to go about doing whatever you want? I would have thought that better testing will be able to give us certificates that show we have had it and are not a risk to ourselves or others.

My understanding of viruses is that you won't get re-infected unless the virus mutates. It will mutate of course as it is already a mutation of another virus after all. But there is a good chance that the new version won't be worth worrying about because it might well lose its potency or how contagious it is. That is just as the current mutation IS worth worrying about whereas what it mutated from was probably not very serious.

Does flight-shaming really have much impact and would motor-shaming if it ever came about? It's one of those things that probably gets discussed at Hampstead dinner-parties while the rest of the world carries on regardless.
The price and convenience advantage of flights at the moment is so overwhelming that it would take such a massive hike in air fares and a similar decrease in train and ferry fares that no amount of angry 16-year-old Scandinavians with pigtails would make me change. I do two business trips a year to Ireland - return flight from London to Ireland generally costs less than the train fare to Holyhead, even with a senior railcard. I also go to Malta once a year; what I pay for the flights usually probably wouldn't get me into France on the train; in fact, the cost and time difference is so great that the train and ferry companies would have to pay me about £300 to use their services to make it worthwhile.
It's the same with car trips; for the three people in my household to go from South London to Brighton on the train would cost about £55, even with my senior railcard. Petrol cost? Less than a tenner in my car, perhaps at another tenner for wear and tear, parking etc.

I remember years ago myself and my enthusiast friends worked out that if two of us were going somewhere by car then it was seldom cheaper to go by train. Over the years the balance has tipped further in favour of the car. That is not helped by the lack of offers these days it seems - remember the buy one get one free Boots vouchers from the 1990s ?.

True, but considering how little some care about social distancing would you want to rely on them continuing to wash their hands once they thought they were at no further risk?

That is the problem. People who have already had it can pick up the virus on their hands via shopping trolley, door handle, handrail etc. Then passing on the virus to someone who has not had it yet. I feel the priority is to keep the elderly and infirm out of harms way. Sadly that will make them feel even more lonely but the hospitals cannot cope with them all needing intensive care at the same time.

On the subject of social distancing. I have experienced controls on how many people are let into shops. In Cosco they remind you to keep a metre (iirc) apart. But I saw one lady walk up to another and tap her on the arm. Said recipient was a bit alarmed !.

 

[Shimbleshanks]

Maybe it's more widespread than you think. Weren't airlines cutting back on flights already before the virus started spreading?

Don't know - can't find any stats online. But not significantly, as far I'm aware.

 

[PG]

Still a risk that you are a vector from infected to uninfected via contact??

I'd say that is highly likely.

True, but considering how little some care about social distancing would you want to rely on them continuing to wash their hands once they thought they were at no further risk?

Given the poor to non existent hand hygiene practiced by (in my experience) >50% of the population, they won't bother to continue with any improvement to their hygiene practices for any sustained length of time.

 

[AndrewE]

Don't know - can't find any stats online. But not significantly, as far I'm aware.

https://www.independent.co.uk/trave...rport-gotherburg-climate-change-a9277936.html

The number of people flying in Sweden dropped by 4 per cent last year, suggesting that the home-grown “flight shame” movement is starting to have an impact.
Official statistics from Sweden’s airport operator, Swedavia, show that more than 40 million people flew through the country’s 10 airports in 2019, a 4 per cent drop year on year.
In 2018, a record high of more than 42 million people flew through Swedish airports.
The decrease in 2019 was primarily in domestic travel, said Swedavia, and international travel decreased to a lesser extent.

In 2019, 12.4 million domestic passengers flew through Sweden, a 9 per cent year on year drop.

 

[nidave]

My understanding of viruses is that you won't get re-infected

Unfortunately that is not true. Chickenpox is a virus and hasn't mutated but people can still re catch it - either as a child or an adult as shingles. That is a simple example, I am sure there are more of the same as you may have built some immunity.
That doesn't necessarily mean you will never get that virus again. Edit: Apparently I was wrong about shingles

If you do you may have milder symptoms unless other heath conditions cause complications or other circumstances allow acute symptoms.

In an extreme example you can catch a virus thats been infected by another virus

there’s a virus called the Sputnik virus that infects amoeba that are already infected by another virus called “helper” viruses and they use the “helper” virus in order to reproduce while inhibiting the reproduction of the helper virus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_virophage

 

[Bletchleyite]

Unfortunately that is not true. Chickenpox is a virus and hasn't mutated but people can still re catch it - either as a child or an adult as shingles. That is a simple example

It's also wrong, it is not caused by reinfection.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles

 

[nidave]

It's also wrong, it is not caused by reinfection.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles

There you go - I take it back and apologise to Peter - you learn something new every day. I always thought it was catching it again.
That leads me to the question - is this virus going to remain in the body and potentially flair up

 

[Bletchleyite]

There you go - I take it back and apologise to Peter - you learn something new every day. I always thought it was catching it again.
That leads me to the question - is this virus going to remain in the body and potentially flair up

Coronaviruses typically don't, but nobody quite knows yet.

Chickenpox is a herpes virus, they do.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

How likely would the outcome be renationalization, because wasn't running at a loss one of the reasons why nationalization happened in 1947/1948?

Not really.
The railway companies then were breaking even operationally, but did need huge investment to recover from wartime damage/decay.
Most of the tariffs were in any case set by government during wartime control and heavy regulation.
It was more a socialist thing (for the transport sector generally - air, road, bus, rail, canal), and in parallel with creating things like the NHS.
Nationalisation created the hopeless British Transport Commission which soon morphed back into partial privatisation (leaving BR in state hands).

 

[Peter Sarf]

I'd say that is highly likely.


Given the poor to non existent hand hygiene practiced by (in my experience) >50% of the population, they won't bother to continue with any improvement to their hygiene practices for any sustained length of time.

Where I work the use of hand washing soap has gone up considerably. But, as you say, I would not be surprised to see it fall back just as quickly.

There you go - I take it back and apologise to Peter - you learn something new every day. I always thought it was catching it again.
That leads me to the question - is this virus going to remain in the body and potentially flair up

That is the nasty question. Will those people who have been infected actually be completely rid of it. My only hope is the stats of people who are not longer infectious is because all trace of the live virus has gone.