Advance tickets - massive reduction in quantity released?

[trainophile]

Today is exactly 12 weeks to Monday 11th May, and I know Trainsplit don't offer tickets beyond the 12 week horizon, so I just looked for my regular ticket from Hereford to Chester on the 10:28 direct train. To my surprise the cheapest(?) tier (which even so seems to be £2 dearer than on recent purchases) had "only one ticket remaining at this price". I felt panicked and bought it, but it got me wondering what's going on.

Quite shocked, I've usually been able to get the cheap tickets up to a day or two before travel. Has there been some huge decrease in availability of Advances after the new pricing comes in?

 

[yorkie]

Today is exactly 12 weeks to Monday 11th May, and I know Trainsplit don't offer tickets beyond the 12 week horizon, so I just looked for my regular ticket from Hereford to Chester on the 10:28 direct train. To my surprise the cheapest(?) tier (which even so seems to be £2 dearer than on recent purchases) had "only one ticket remaining at this price". I felt panicked and bought it, but it got me wondering what's going on.

Quite shocked, I've usually been able to get the cheap tickets up to a day or two before travel. Has there been some huge decrease in availability of Advances after the new pricing comes in?

I'm seeing £13.03 on that itinerary, with a Senior Railcard. Is that what you were expecting?

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[trainophile]

Well the ticket I was referring to for 11th May, bought on the day of release exactly 12 weeks ahead, was £12.50. However yesterday I bought exactly the same ticket for Weds 13th May (for my other half, also with Senior Railcard), and it's back to £10.45, which was what I was expecting for 11th May in my original post from past experience (plus maybe a small annual increase, which I'm not sure of TfW's position on).

I notice it's also £10.45 for Tuesday 12th. Another thing - Monday 11th is still showing only one ticket left at that price on the 10:28, despite me panic buying what I was led to believe was the last one. Likewise showing only one ticket each available for the two subsequent departures, changing at Shrewsbury and Crewe respectively, which are yet more expensive. 11th May isn't a Bank Holiday, as that's on 4th May, so I'm rather baffled by the price hike and lack of availability for that particular date.

Would be interested in any explanations. I'm not losing sleep over £2 but it's a puzzle.

 

[Sleepy]

Think quota varies wildly by TOC/route and day of the week. I looked at LNER Advance prices in 1st class for a treat to York for May and even at off peak times I was shocked at the prices compared to a year ago - just couldn't justify for length of journey and current catering. If you look at London to Norwich Advance they have very good prices up to 2 or 3 days before eg. on Monday return trip £39 (off peak return £72)

 

[mmh]

I bought a TFW advance (Manchester to Colwyn Bay) on the day last week, about 3 hours before departure. I'm pretty sure it was cheaper than the tickets I was offered for the same day when I checked a week before. (I couldn't commit to a specific train until the day)

Is it possible TFW aren't releasing all of their advances at the same time?

 

[trainophile]

I may have worked it out, seems there’s lots of things on in Cardiff that weekend, so perhaps TfW in their wisdom thought they might control the flow of demand by not releasing the absolute cheapest tiers.