458s after potential nationalisation

[Babybirdrobin]

As we know: the government wants to renationalise the TOCs (this isn’t about the feasibility of that though) so, bearing that in mind, does anyone have any ideas of what may happen to them, or what you want to happen to them? (Bad English I know, I clearly can’t form a sentence today…)

What I wish would happen: They actually get put into the pompeys they were refurbished for, or at least they get put into some kind of SWR mainline service.
My perfect world (which is impracticality but here goes anyway) would see /4s on the Portsmouth Direct and then the 6 /5s kept for branches and out of London ‘commuter’ services like Lymington or Portsmouth to Southampton (they would get the new livery and interior but not the coach removal or the regear) and the coaches that were spare would be given the same treatment and formed into more units.

Now for what I think is realistic: They either stay on the Suburbans with their /5 counterparts until they have all entered service before getting slowly displaced by 701s, the unrefurbished units would go first, followed by the refurbished ones, then the pair of 707s and lastly the 455s. The 458s would then be in store until they either get scrapped or until the get taken up by someone else (unlikely)

Any opinions?

Well done for getting to the end of this post, I seemingly can’t put my questions into sense today, sorry for the odd read and believe it or not but English is my first language somehow

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

My opinion, in an ideal world, 455s should go before 458s are stored. Obviously fleet sizes differ greatly, but 455s are older and look very tired.

 

[Babybirdrobin]

My opinion, in an ideal world, 455s should go before 458s are stored. Obviously fleet sizes differ greatly, but 455s are older and look very tired.

Understandable, personally I’d prefer the 458s and 455s to stay but at the very least the 455s are going, I understand why but still am sad as I really like both fleets.

On a more serious note though, we need to keep the 455s in service as when they leave, they need to be disposed of which is harder than storage, also, you can take something out of store, you can’t put something back together that’s been harvested for parts then scrapped.

To anyone with inside knowledge here: I’m trying to predict and have no source except my opinion and a little bit of (I hope) common sense although seemingly SWR don’t have that so may be still wrong

 

[JLH4AC]

The SWR Class 701 order is replacing the 455s, 456s and 707s. The 458s will likely stay in use by what is now the South Western franchise in-till at least 2030 as being 3rd rail trains it has nowhere else to go and as 24 year old units other older trains will be replaced before they are withdrawn.

 

[stadler]

I think that realistically the 458s will all get scrapped once the full fleet of 701s are in service. They will have no use for them. SWR have massively reduced their timetable since covid so the 444s and 450s and 701s will be more than enough to cover all of their electrified routes. So i think the most likely outcome will be all of the 458s getting scrapped as soon as all of the 701s are in service.

 

[43096]

I think that realistically the 458s will all get scrapped once the full fleet of 701s are in service. They will have no use for them. SWR have massively reduced their timetable since covid so the 444s and 450s and 701s will be more than enough to cover all of their electrified routes. So i think the most likely outcome will be all of the 458s getting scrapped as soon as all of the 701s are in service.

450s leased to 2025
458s leased to 2027
458 lease is cheaper.

What would you do?

 

[CBlue]

On a more serious note though, we need to keep the 455s in service as when they leave, they need to be disposed of which is harder than storage, also, you can take something out of store, you can’t put something back together that’s been harvested for parts then scrapped.

I'm not sure how realistic that could be. Storage space is precious at the best of times, and spares availability for anything as old as a 455 is already getting difficult if previous posts on here are any guide.

Even if storage was available for the remaining 455s, that costs money. Even more so if you want them stabled with power available...most of which will already be used for storing 701s that aren't in service yet.

 

[Babybirdrobin]

I'm not sure how realistic that could be. Storage space is precious at the best of times, and spares availability for anything as old as a 455 is already getting difficult if previous posts on here are any guide.

Even if storage was available for the remaining 455s, that costs money. Even more so if you want them stabled with power available...most of which will already be used for storing 701s that aren't in service yet.

Sorry, I should've clarified, I didn't mean storing the whole fleet, I just meant short term storage for things like spares removal and maybe an occasional cold spare, not actually long term store after coming out of service, as in like a unit stored would be scrapped within a yearish of it leaving service

 

[Snow1964]

I guess this is more a question of if the railways are nationalised or come under one umbrella organisation, then where else in Britain could they be used.

Probably bit late to add transformers and pantographs now (even if they were originally designed and tested to take them). I am guessing the ac sets used for testing ended up on the 334s in Scotland. The remaining payback period might be too short. Although if they were standard with another fleet of trains and could be transferred then that would be different. However if they make more sense on ac lines than the surplus 350s seems unrealistic

Perhaps 458s allocated to a few dedicated services on Southern or South Eastern allowing some 375 / 377 to be moved around and aging networkers to be scrapped. But I see that more as an interim solution for 5-9 years until the latter units of a standardised new fleet for South Eastern is built.

 

[Babybirdrobin]

340s

I assume you mean 334s?

 

[simonmpoulton]

Maybe they could be used as a battery or hydrogen retrofit? Although i'm unsure how practical that would be!

 

[Class15]

Would have said they would all be scrapped, but with this 450 lease issue it’s just possible they may continue. Still think scrap is likely I’m afraid.

 

[Western Sunset]

Many of the Wat - B'mth - Wey trains are now formed 444 + 450 to Bournemouth, rather than 444 + 444. Where are the surplus 444s working now?

 

[Big Jumby 74]

I think that realistically the 458s will all get scrapped once the full fleet of 701s are in service. They will have no use for them. SWR have massively reduced their timetable since covid so the 444s and 450s and 701s will be more than enough to cover all of their electrified routes. So i think the most likely outcome will be all of the 458s getting scrapped as soon as all of the 701s are in service.

Agree.

450s leased to 2025
458s leased to 2027
458 lease is cheaper.

What would you do?

That is only one cost aspect. 458's are a micro fleet, and therefore operationally (traction knowledge/spares etc) will make them more costly/unreliable as the years pass.

 

[Energy]

450s leased to 2025
458s leased to 2027
458 lease is cheaper.

What would you do?

Use the 458s as a bargaining chip to get the 450s cheaper. There are far more 450s and they are far more reliable.

 

[Babybirdrobin]

Use the 458s as a bargaining chip to get the 450s cheaper. There are far more 450s and they are far more reliable.

How though? Like the leaser (Porterbrook?) would want both fleets on lease as it gives them more money, right? Please let me know if I’m missing something hare?

 

[43096]

How though? Like the leaser (Porterbrook?) would want both fleets on lease as it gives them more money, right? Please let me know if I’m missing something hare?

450s are Angel owned.
458s are Porterbrook owned.

 

[JLH4AC]

Perhaps 458s allocated to a few dedicated services on Southern or South Eastern allowing some 375 / 377 to be moved around and aging networkers to be scrapped. But I see that more as an interim solution for 5-9 years until the latter units of a standardised new fleet for South Eastern is built.

21-36 units are unlikely to have a meaningful impact in regard to dealing with the 151 ageing networkers.

Maybe they could be used as a battery or hydrogen retrofit? Although i'm unsure how practical that would be!

If the class 458s will truly be surplus to requirements as some here seem to think, them being retrofitted to be Battery-Electric could be a good way to displace the Sprinter units from the South Western network.

 

[D7666]

450s leased to 2025
458s leased to 2027
458 lease is cheaper.

What would you do?

Sub lease them.

(To SET if you ask).

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Many of the Wat - B'mth - Wey trains are now formed 444 + 450 to Bournemouth, rather than 444 + 444. Where are the surplus 444s working now?

Single 444 diagrams have replaced some less busy 8 car 450 diagrams allowing them to work in the suburban area to replace the 458s which have gone off for works.

 

[TEW]

Single 444 diagrams have replaced some less busy 8 car 450 diagrams allowing them to work in the suburban area to replace the 458s which have gone off for works.

10-car 444s have also replaced some 12-car 450 diagrams.

 

[Western Sunset]

Thanks both.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Many of the Wat - B'mth - Wey trains are now formed 444 + 450 to Bournemouth, rather than 444 + 444. Where are the surplus 444s working now?

Altons and Basingstoke semi fasts. Here in Farnham we get about four 444 services in each direction now, most of which are 10 car.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Aug 2024 ==

458's are a micro fleet, and therefore operationally (traction knowledge/spares etc) will make them more costly/unreliable as the years pass.

No they are not. To say that 28-36 units is a microfleet is honestly laughable. WMT's two 139s and three 150s (and formerly their three 230s), TfW's pool of three 170s (as it was for most of 2023), TFL's fleet of five 360s, EMR's four 180s, Island Line's five 484s, TfW's "five" 230s, those are all microfleets.

The 450 fleet is abnormally large by comparison, yes, but the Class 458 is far from a microfleet.

 

[Big Jumby 74]

No they are not

We can argue all day about the use of the word 'micro', it's just a phrase (I used) to describe what has been historically and present day (on LSWR metals) a small fleet, in number. When compared to the Desiro fleet, a type which (IIRC) all, or very nearly all, crews are trained on, both Main Line and suburban, making them (Desiros) very user friendly for planners, roster staff and controllers, whereas the requirement for crew knowledge on 458's (numbers of bodies) will always be far less, and so potentially problematic cost and retention wise further down the line. I stand by my comments, although I doubt you and I will ever agree. So be it.

 

[Snow1964]

We can argue all day about the use of the word 'micro', it's just a phrase (I used) to describe what has been historically and present day (on LSWR metals) a small fleet, in number. When compared to the Desiro fleet, a type which (IIRC) all, or very nearly all, crews are trained on, both Main Line and suburban, making them (Desiros) very user friendly for planners, roster staff and controllers, whereas the requirement for crew knowledge on 458's (numbers of bodies) will always be far less, and so potentially problematic cost and retention wise further down the line. I stand by my comments, although I doubt you and I will ever agree. So be it.

However smaller fleets are not a problem if concentrated in smaller areas, rather than anywhere the franchise operates. Don't forget the 159 fleet is smaller than 458 fleet and not exactly racing to get rid of them as inconvenient to plan for.

 

[Big Jumby 74]

However smaller fleets are not a problem if concentrated in smaller areas

You are not wrong, particularly when such is self contained. Where any potential problems can arise though is during periods of disruption. What's the first service route that gets canned East of Basingstoke in such scenarios when the route towards Waterloo goes in to meltdown. Perfectly understandable why that happens (the terminations) but it has a much wider knock-on when the Exeter's/Salisbury's form an integral part of the overall timetable East of Basingstoke.
Back to 458's to try to keep on theme: in the planning (timetable) stages, asking 'what if' in relation to potential disruption scenarios always formed (in my day) part of that planning process, it has to. Think of Waterloo during such problem days, I think most of us who use(d) that route will have spent a number of days over the years on the concourse waiting for something to move, and often heard announcements to the effect......"xxxx train is cancelled due to no driver/guard"......very frustrating, and my point above ref the 458's and minimal crews having traction knowledge is made with this sort of scenario in mind. The larger the 'common' train fleet and the associated larger (number) of crews who have knowledge thereof (ie Desiro's in this case), the easier it should prove to recover the service, without having to take a whole service route out of the equation - as happens with Exeters/Salisburys.

Appreciate disruption scenario's as such are not that often thankfully, and decisions about how much risk is built in to a timetable plan, be it by a small train fleet type and associated relatively small number of crews with knowledge thereof, is something that those at the top pay grade have to decide. Should never be forgotten that what is, or should be first and foremost, is the paying passenger and their desire for a reliable/on time service.
I'll get down off my 'tall' horse now....