I think maybe you're expecting too much. One has to remember that in the liberal mid-90s, the Tories were seen by many as dated, anachronistic and irrelevant to modern society, whereas in the conservative 2010s and 2020s, this is sadly no longer the case.
I'm not sure that is really the case - it may just be an artifact of us both getting older and who we associate with
In my case - though I'm not saying I'm typical - my politics seem to have changed quite radically over the past few years. Or rather, politics appears to have changed radically around me. I've always thought of myself as economically left-wing and socially libertarian; that's why I rather liked Corbyn, because his records showed that he was similar. But I don't see anyone that is economically left-wing and socially libertarian available right now - and perhaps the one change in my own views in the last few years is that I may now put more importance on social libertarianism over economic left-wing-ism than before. That is a direct product of having been (quite ludicrously) legally confined to my home, repeatedly, for months on end, which all the major parties supported, and no doubt would again in similar circumstances.
Sadly as a naive twenty-something in the mid-90s I thought the Tories would be out for a generation unless they modernised, and didn't anticipate the clock swinging back towards conservatism as it did after 2010.
But they did modernise, at least to some degree, under Cameron (as a clone of Blair). And Labour at the time, among many other issues, were descending into repeated and concerted attacks on civil liberties. (It may be worth pointing out that one such, that everyone missed at the time because it was a lot less obvious than others, were the changes to the 1984 Public Health Act that allowed all the Covid regulations). I openly detested this Government by 2010 and, while certainly no fan of Cameron, was delighted in the change of government then. Remember the very first bill the Cameron government put forward was to get rid of ID cards, which I had strongly opposed and was very pleased indeed to see the back of. (I voted Green at the 2010 election, for what it is worth).
Strangely, economic hard times (such as those seen in 1979 and 2009) seem to encourage people to vote for right-wing parties, which is the opposite of what one might expect.
Or indeed 1992, where John Major won despite the odds and a poor economy. By contrast the economy was doing pretty well in 1997 and the electorate quite emphatically removed him. (Though even then, the Conservatives got over 30% of the vote). So yes, those hoping that the terrible disasters we're going to see in the economy over the next year ot two are going to lose the Tories the next election should remember it doesn't always work that way.
I think any gain, even a small one, for Labour looks ok to at least get them in as the largest party in a hung parliament. Remember also that many of the councils involved in these recent elections were solid Labour anyway.
You'd need Labour to gain 80 seats and the Tories to lose 80 to get to that point. When you consider that there is (almost) always somewhat of a swing back to the ruling party as a general election nears, on these results Labour are currently a very long way away indeed. Also, fairly or otherwise, you've got the boundary changes to take into account, which appear to favour the Tories.
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They have more than double the number of seats of their nearest challenger, and were going into this election with the most seats to defend. You can't gain a seat you already hold, in the same way you can't lose a seat you don't hold. I'm sure there are areas of the country where Labour could have and should have done better, but in summary there wasn't much more that could be done.
Based on the data here
http://www.electionscentre.co.uk/wp...07/Local-Elections-Handbook-1995-complete.pdf
Labour won close to triple the number of seats of the Tories then (6239 vs 2136, I think, if I can use Excel).
They got 47% of the vote versus 25% for the Tories. (In 2022, 35% vs 30%).
That's really not a very good performance given there are all sorts of reasons that the Government should be as unpopular, if not considerably more so, than Major's government in 1995.
Also the number of seats up for election in each year of local elections is not the same each year (except comparing the same set every time they're up for election), so comparing 2022 and 1995 is like comparing apples and pears.
Of course true, but nevertheless there are clear markers when you're heading for a change of government, and we're not getting them here. Look at the 2008 elections - Tories 44%, Labour 24%. That's the kind of lead you need in order to win at a general election a couple of years from now (and even then the Tories didn't manage a majority).
