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If Grand Central's new Brighton service is approved Cambridge becomes the only station with 6m+ passengers per year without a service to "The North"

William3000

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Mod Note: Posts #1 - #5 originally in this thread.

This will leave Cambridge as the only city and station with more than 6 million passengers a year (it has about 13 million) without a single rail service to the North of England despite being one of the fastest growing cities in the UK.
 
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Iskra

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This will leave Cambridge as the only city and station with more than 6 million passengers a year (it has about 13 million) without a single rail service to the North of England despite being one of the fastest growing cities in the UK.
That may well be the case, but I’m sure an extremely large proportion of that 6 million will be London traffic, so it doesn’t necessarily signify a large market for travel to ‘the North.’
 

Snow1964

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This will leave Cambridge as the only city and station with more than 6 million passengers a year (it has about 13 million) without a single rail service to the North of England despite being one of the fastest growing cities in the UK.
Bath Spa has 6.5m passengers and no services north of Newport Wales or Oxford
 

Magdalia

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This will leave Cambridge as the only city and station with more than 6 million passengers a year (it has about 13 million) without a single rail service to the North of England despite being one of the fastest growing cities in the UK.


It is a bizarre claim and it isn't correct. Cambridge had 10.6m entries and exits in 2024/25, not 13 million.

Bath has already been mentioned; Chelmsford is a city and has 7 million entries and exits in 2024/25, with no trains going further north than Norwich.
 

Merle Haggard

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That may well be the case, but I’m sure an extremely large proportion of that 6 million will be London traffic, so it doesn’t necessarily signify a large market for travel to ‘the North.’

The extremely large proportion being to London might possibly be a reflection of the fact that there's a poor service to the North and a good service to London. There will be a difference between market and use if the market is badly served.
 

JamesT

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The extremely large proportion being to London might possibly be a reflection of the fact that there's a poor service to the North and a good service to London. There will be a difference between market and use if the market is badly served.
Or just a matter of geography? Going to the North via Cambridge is a bit of a detour compared to other routes.
 

Magdalia

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The extremely large proportion being to London might possibly be a reflection of the fact that there's a poor service to the North and a good service to London. There will be a difference between market and use if the market is badly served.
Cambridge does have direct services to Leicester and Birmingham, and the numbers are not big, 10294 and 19132 one way journeys respectively. It is hard to make a case that, even with direct trains, flows between Cambridge and any northern city would be significantly bigger than Birmingham.
 

A S Leib

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Being pedantic, there's plenty of stations with more than 6 mn passengers lacking direct services to northern England, including the busiest in the country (London Liverpool Street), other London termini except Euston, St. Pancras and King's Cross, and a bunch of London suburban stations such as Highbury & Islington, Canada Water and Ealing Broadway.

It is the busiest station outside London without any services to northern England (Glasgow Queen Street has Lumo even counting it separately to Central), but still not the only one above 6 mn passengers per year (Bath and Chelmsford have been mentioned, and St. Albans City, Woking and Guildford reach that mark as well).

It would probably be better to have good interchanges at Stevenage or Peterborough and to be able to have that every hour than to have token direct services once or twice a day.
 
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35B

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Being pedantic, there's plenty of stations with more than 6 mn passengers lacking direct services to northern England, including the busiest in the country (London Liverpool Street), other London termini except Euston, St. Pancras and King's Cross, and a bunch of London suburban stations such as Highbury & Islington, Canada Water and Ealing Broadway.

It is the busiest station outside London without any services to northern England (Glasgow Queen Street has Lumo even counting it separately to Central), but still not the only one above 6 mn passengers per year (Bath and Chelmsford have been mentioned, and St. Albans City, Woking and Guildford reach that mark as well).

It would probably be better to have good interchanges at Stevenage or Peterborough and to be able to that every hour than to have token direct services once or twice a day.
Quite. I'm not sure that Cambridge would be the better off if the former Colchester-Barrow-in-Furness service were resurrected
 

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The solution to Cambridge's connectivity to the north is coordinated interchanges at Ely and Peterborough. Adding additional trains on top of what already operates on the Ely-Peterborough line or the ECML would be (probably prohibitively) expensive.
 

8ace

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I'd imagine the Ely area capacity enhancement (EACE) would need to be completed before anything meaningful could be done. Is that still on hold?
 

brad465

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What are the reasons EMR's Liverpool-Norwich train goes to Norwich and not Cambridge? If I had to guess it's a combination of lack of paths, service would be overwhelmed and the need to provide something fast/more capacity for Ely-Norwich.
 

NCT

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Ultimately demand in that neck of the woods isn't huge and the infrastructure a bit basic. There are only so many paths per hour to play with and it clearly wouldn't be practical to give everyone direct trains, or have a complex pattern of direct trains varying hour by hour. The solution has to be in interchanges.
 

35B

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What are the reasons EMR's Liverpool-Norwich train goes to Norwich and not Cambridge? If I had to guess it's a combination of lack of paths, service would be overwhelmed and the need to provide something fast/more capacity for Ely-Norwich.
You might equally well ask why the XC service goes to Cambridge rather than Norwich! Ultimately, they overlap, and (from experience) the EMR service is far from rapid
 

JonathanH

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The solution to Cambridge's connectivity to the north is coordinated interchanges at Ely and Peterborough. Adding additional trains on top of what already operates on the Ely-Peterborough line or the ECML would be (probably prohibitively) expensive.
Equally, the solution to Brighton's connectivity is making things as easy as possible at its relevant interchanges.

Ultimately demand in that neck of the woods isn't huge and the infrastructure a bit basic. There are only so many paths per hour to play with and it clearly wouldn't be practical to give everyone direct trains, or have a complex pattern of direct trains varying hour by hour. The solution has to be in interchanges.
If HS2 had reached Leeds, then diverting one of the Leeds to London trains to Cambridge could have been an option, but realistically, the use of the path between Peterborough and Leeds (or even Peterborough and Edinburgh) is still better focussed on London than Cambridge.

As you say, the solution is better interchanges, but Peterborough isn't going to be rebuilt with cross platform interchanges and coincidental always on time changes.
 

NCT

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Equally, the solution to Brighton's connectivity is making things as easy as possible at its relevant interchanges.

Indeed. BML should focus on being a good regional 'metro' (and no (directed at nobody in particular) please don't make any literal interpretation of the word) - one thing is not to try doing anything clever with skipping Gatwick, East Croydon or Clapham Junction.

If HS2 had reached Leeds, then diverting one of the Leeds to London trains to Cambridge could have been an option, but realistically, the use of the path between Peterborough and Leeds (or even Peterborough and Edinburgh) is still better focussed on London than Cambridge.

As you say, the solution is better interchanges, but Peterborough isn't going to be rebuilt with cross platform interchanges and coincidental always on time changes.

You work with what you've got. The choices are nothing, the imperfect, and the unobtainable. HS2 is currently a frozen embryo.
 

cle

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The solution to Cambridge's connectivity to the north is coordinated interchanges at Ely and Peterborough. Adding additional trains on top of what already operates on the Ely-Peterborough line or the ECML would be (probably prohibitively) expensive.
A second/new tph to P'boro would be a modest but big help here, whether they go on to Birmingham (that route through Stamford etc needs more service too) - or as a shuttle.
You might equally well ask why the XC service goes to Cambridge rather than Norwich! Ultimately, they overlap, and (from experience) the EMR service is far from rapid
It's a good question. But then Norwich gets a Birmingham service, which some might say Cambridge needs. Leicester too.

But possibly Cambridge to Nottingham, Sheffield and Manchester is better? Stansted tag, irrelevant I think for the longer distance but if I had to choose, maybe the Leicetser route might use it more (Stamford/Oakham etc)
Equally, the solution to Brighton's connectivity is making things as easy as possible at its relevant interchanges.
Agree - but Brighton as well as XC lost its fast(er) services to the West too in the Cardiffs. A semi-fast service to at least Reading would connect it to the wider network better.
 

Palmerston

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Mod Note: Posts #1 - #5 originally in this thread.

This will leave Cambridge as the only city and station with more than 6 million passengers a year (it has about 13 million) without a single rail service to the North of England despite being one of the fastest growing cities in the UK.
Where would you want a direct service to, and by what route? And how frequently? What about services to Wales, Scotland and the South West?
 

Magdalia

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There is almost no history of direct trains between Cambridge and "the north". When I was growing up in Cambridge in the 1970s the farthest north it was possible to go from Cambridge on a direct train was the summer Sunday train to Skegness.

Quite. I'm not sure that Cambridge would be the better off if the former Colchester-Barrow-in-Furness service were resurrected
The nearest to an exception is the Sprinter 1.0 timetable introduced in 1988, which did include a few trains to and from Liverpool.

What are the reasons EMR's Liverpool-Norwich train goes to Norwich and not Cambridge? If I had to guess it's a combination of lack of paths, service would be overwhelmed and the need to provide something fast/more capacity for Ely-Norwich.

You might equally well ask why the XC service goes to Cambridge rather than Norwich! Ultimately, they overlap, and (from experience) the EMR service is far from rapid
But that only lasted until 1994, when the service was split into Norwich-Liverpool and Cambridge-Birmingham in advance of privatisation. That was set in stone when the Central Trains franchise was broken up, putting Norwich-Liverpool into East Midlands and Cambridge-Birmingham into Cross Country. Of course that was all before Cambridge started to grow rapidly.

The solution to Cambridge's connectivity to the north is coordinated interchanges at Ely and Peterborough. Adding additional trains on top of what already operates on the Ely-Peterborough line or the ECML would be (probably prohibitively) expensive.

A second/new tph to P'boro would be a modest but big help here, whether they go on to Birmingham (that route through Stamford etc needs more service too) - or as a shuttle.

All of Edinburgh, York, Leeds and Nottingham have bigger flows from Cambridge than Leicester. For connectivity with "the north" what Cambridge needs most is 2tph Cambridge-Peterborough, for ECML connections, and that would be a big benefit for local journeys too. One of the most absurd features of the current arrangements is that the first train from Peterborough does not arrive in Cambridge until 0814, and the last departure from Cambridge to Peterborough is at 2100, which is horrendous for local connectivity.

As you say, the solution is better interchanges, but Peterborough isn't going to be rebuilt with cross platform interchanges and coincidental always on time changes.
Peterborough has already been rebuilt twice in my lifetime.

I'd imagine the Ely area capacity enhancement (EACE) would need to be completed before anything meaningful could be done. Is that still on hold?
This is a classic example of "something must be done, this is something, therefore we must do this". EACE did nothing for Cambridge apart from 2tph on the Fen Line, and that's mostly been achieved already, with a bit of investment in platform extensions.

From a Cambridge perspective, East West Rail remains the priority, and I'm not optimistic that Cambridge will get much from central government on top of that, because they want growth in postcodes other than CB too. Anything else for Cambridge is going to need local and/or private sector funding.

But that doesn't mean that nothing can be done. GBR has already given us the Greater Anglia business unit and the new rolling stock and infrastructure strategy. For what its worth, my preferred way forward is electric/battery bimodes (something like the recent Trans Pennine order?) to operate Stansted-Norwich/Nottingham, and class 170s Norwich-Birmingham, both operated by Greater Anglia.
 

A S Leib

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There is almost no history of direct trains between Cambridge and "the north". When I was growing up in Cambridge in the 1970s the farthest north it was possible to go from Cambridge on a direct train was the summer Sunday train to Skegness.
How much of that explains the difference with Oxford's service, given Oxford historically had Paddington to Birkenhead services? (Having made the comparison, I'd argue that Cambridge gets a far better London service than Oxford, with some of the non-London difference coming down to Birmingham – and Bristol, despite the lack of direct services until recently – being closer to Oxford than any large cities bar London and Leicester are to Cambridge.)
 

Failed Unit

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To be honest in terms of connections to the ECML, Surely the quickest what not is via Stevenage,

A train at least every 30 minutes from Cambridge to Stevenage then hourly services to Leeds and Newcastle. Not the most difficult interchange either over the bridge. (probably no worse the Peterborough) I know people prefer direct for many reasons
 

A S Leib

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To be honest in terms of connections to the ECML, Surely the quickest what not is via Stevenage,

A train at least every 30 minutes from Cambridge to Stevenage then hourly services to Leeds and Newcastle. Not the most difficult interchange either over the bridge. (probably no worse the Peterborough) I know people prefer direct for many reasons
Journey planners sometimes seem reluctant to show that route. Without putting in 'via Stevenage', fastjp.com shows the first itinerary from Cambridge to Newcastle via Stevenage from 10:30 on Monday leaving at 11:51, onto a Lumo service which can't be done hourly.
 

William3000

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It is a bizarre claim and it isn't correct. Cambridge had 10.6m entries and exits in 2024/25, not 13 million.

Bath has already been mentioned; Chelmsford is a city and has 7 million entries and exits in 2024/25, with no trains going further north than Norwich.
Not bizarre at all. Cambridge has 13 million across its 3 stations. It’s by far the largest place outside London and Brighton without a single train service to the North. And the immense levels of traffic on the A14 towards the A1 show the huge latent demand.

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The extremely large proportion being to London might possibly be a reflection of the fact that there's a poor service to the North and a good service to London. There will be a difference between market and use if the market is badly served.

The extremely large proportion being to London might possibly be a reflection of the fact that there's a poor service to the North and a good service to London. There will be a difference between market and use if the market is badly served.
Exactly

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That may well be the case, but I’m sure an extremely large proportion of that 6 million will be London traffic, so it doesn’t necessarily signify a large market for travel to ‘the North.’
But the huge traffic levels on the A14/A1 show there is a massive market for travel north - it’s just it’s all car based!
 

A S Leib

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It’s by far the largest place outside London and Brighton without a single train service to the North
It's significantly smaller than Portsmouth, which also doesn't have any services to northern England. By some definitions (the list of ONS population estimates I have; a few years old but still at least comparable places), it's also behind Gloucester (1 train per day, the Cardiff – Edinburgh), Slough, Ipswich, Southend, Swindon, Luton, Crawley (excluding the potential Grand Central service), Medway and Farnborough / Aldershot.

On the other end, do Barnsley, Mansfield and Bolton necessitate services to the south by dint of being the largest settlements in northern England without any?
 
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William3000

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It is a bizarre claim and it isn't correct. Cambridge had 10.6m entries and exits in 2024/25, not 13 million.

Bath has already been mentioned; Chelmsford is a city and has 7 million entries and exits in 2024/25, with no trains going further north than Norwich.
Moreover Chelmsford is so close to London that its journey’s north will clearly be via London like Southend, Maidstone etc. You seen to have an aversion to increased services from Cambridge to the North and Midlands - but we only have an hourly 3 car service to Birmingham - that’s it. While we have 24 cars an hour to Brighton and the South Coast.
 

JonathanH

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Not bizarre at all. Cambridge has 13 million across its 3 stations. It’s by far the largest place outside London and Brighton without a single train service to the North. And the immense levels of traffic on the A14 towards the A1 show the huge latent demand.
Which destination are you wanting to connect directly with Cambridge?
 

35B

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Not bizarre at all. Cambridge has 13 million across its 3 stations. It’s by far the largest place outside London and Brighton without a single train service to the North. And the immense levels of traffic on the A14 towards the A1 show the huge latent demand.

But the huge traffic levels on the A14/A1 show there is a massive market for travel north - it’s just it’s all car based!
Where does that traffic go? And how much of it has anything to do with Cambridge?
 

William3000

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Cambridge does have direct services to Leicester and Birmingham, and the numbers are not big, 10294 and 19132 one way journeys respectively. It is hard to make a case that, even with direct trains, flows between Cambridge and any northern city would be significantly bigger than Birmingham.
But Leicester and Birmingham aren’t the North - it’s a circuitous route on a 3-car train. Leicester and Norwich are virtually the same distance from Cambridge as the crow flies but while Norwich takes 78 mins, Leicester takes a circuitous route and 108 mins and is much more expensive. Birmingham takes about 2hrs 40! Very slow. Cheaper prices and faster speeds would increase patronage. Until about 2003, Cambridge didn’t have a direct service to Norwich but its become increasingly popular.

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It's significantly smaller than Portsmouth, which also doesn't have any services to northern England. By some definitions (the list of ONS population estimates I have; a few years old but still at least comparable places), it's also behind Gloucester (1 train per day, the Cardiff – Edinburgh), Slough, Ipswich, Southend, Swindon, Luton, Crawley (excluding the potential Grand Central service), Medway and Farnborough / Aldershot.

On the other end, do Barnsley, Mansfield and Bolton necessitate services to the south by dint of being the largest settlements in northern England without any?
I should have stated I’m not talking about the city’s population but the passenger numbers at the stations. Greater Cambridge has a population of around 327,000 while the City of Cambridge is about 155,000. But Cambridge is much busier than any of the stations in Portsmouth. Cambridge’s central station is busier than Newcastle, Sheffield, Bristol Temple Meads etc.

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Which destination are you wanting to connect directly with Cambridge?
Personally I think Cambridge - (the three stations between them are likely to have 20 million passengers within 5 years) should have direct services to Newcastle and/or Leeds. Bear in mind also that Cambridge is set to grow hugely in the next decade.
 
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A S Leib

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Greater Cambridge has a population of around 327,000
Assuming that's from the population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined, I suspect that would include people for whom driving or getting a bus to St. Neots or Huntingdon and changing at Peterborough, or going through Stevenage, would be quicker than going through Cambridge.

I'm not opposed to the idea of giving fast-growing places more services, such as Milton Keynes; I'm less sure that the infrastructure and capacity's currently there to give Cambridge direct services to northern England.
 

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