My analysis comes from studying economics at University, working in economics for 30 years, and continuing to follow the subject since I retired. That goes back to the time of the Serpell Report and BR sectorisation, key events that have shaped government policy on the the railway ever since.
I go back to my post on Monday, you don't understand why there is opposition to your National Railcard because you misunderstand two key points:
The competition that matters for the railway is its competition with other public services for funding. Since Monday I have looked up some numbers on railway industry finance, which are here:
Go to Table 2.1 on page 15 and you will see that funding to passenger operators in 2024/25 was £4.2bn, and £2.7bn higher than 5 years ago. That £4.2bn figure needs to be coming down, not going up. It is taxpayers money going on funding the railway that can be better spent elsewhere, and I'll start from the position of not supporting anything that pushes that £4.2bn up not down.
For a policy objective of public transport that's affordably priced for the population, buses are a far more cost effective way of delivering that objective than trains. In the context of the cost of living crisis, that's been addressed through the £2 fare cap.