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Grand central apply for new routes

thenorthern

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I'd take it. Comparable to the Northern/LNR via Crewe I took Friday. If it's cheap enough, of course!

Is it ever going to cheap enough to win out over the LNR / Northern option, for which advance single fares, splitting at Crewe, can often sit below £15-£20 at quieter times?

Euston to Crewe on LNR is now a high capacity service at most times at the apparent benevolence of the taxpayer. Unless the fares were to increase significantly, I don't see how the benevolence of Grand Central running a roundabout service is able to compete.

Back when the Crewe - Stoke-on-Trent - Stafford - Northampton - Euston trains started in 2008 there was a fair amount of people who took the then London Midland services from Stoke-on-Trent to Euston despite the fact it took much longer and was on a less comfortable train.

Leisure passenger will often travel on slow trains if they are cheaper.
 
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cle

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Back when the Crewe - Stoke-on-Trent - Stafford - Northampton - Euston trains started in 2008 there was a fair amount of people who took the then London Midland services from Stoke-on-Trent to Euston despite the fact it took much longer and was on a less comfortable train.

Leisure passenger will often travel on slow trains if they are cheaper.
And people take them to Birmingham, with far greater demand. If Crewe and Stoke are viable alternatives (I know Stoke is gone for now) - Manchester will be gangbusters. There was barely Trainline.com when Rio was up, I remember it vividly travelling from London to Manchester fortnightly at the time. Will be a massive disruption in a good way, hence all the exceptionalist hackles up.
 

thenorthern

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And people take them to Birmingham, with far greater demand. If Crewe and Stoke are viable alternatives (I know Stoke is gone for now) - Manchester will be gangbusters. There was barely Trainline.com when Rio was up, I remember it vividly travelling from London to Manchester fortnightly at the time. Will be a massive disruption in a good way, hence all the exceptionalist hackles up.

Virgin Trains fares from Euston to Manchester were also cheaper in those days, meaning it didn't make much sense to use Project Rio over Virgin Trains. Also Project Rio wasn't created as a competition for existing services but rather to provide an additional service due to long-term disruption.
 

cle

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Virgin Trains fares from Euston to Manchester were also cheaper in those days, meaning it didn't make much sense to use Project Rio over Virgin Trains. Also Project Rio wasn't created as a competition for existing services but rather to provide an additional service due to long-term disruption.
A walk-up saver was 59ish in my heyday...and the hours of peak and off peak were not as scandalous and dishonest as today.

I was fortunate enough to have a rail card too. And one way advances could be 10 quid each - long before it went to 3tph pendos so with much lower capacity. I did stand a few times of course.
 

thenorthern

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Looking at capacity a big issue has always been that from Harecastle Junction at Kidsgrove to North Junction at Cheadle Hulme, there is no spare capacity.

I think Grand Central are a bit optimistic to think that they will get train paths on this section.
 

BrianW

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Looking at capacity a big issue has always been that from Harecastle Junction at Kidsgrove to North Junction at Cheadle Hulme, there is no spare capacity.

I think Grand Central are a bit optimistic to think that they will get train paths on this section.

I'm somewhat 'behind the curve'- How much does it cost to make an Application? What is the 'success rate' of applications, so far? Any 'info' on ratio of income (profit?) per siucccessful appliaction?

I guess there is no obligation to go ahead even if granted; or to operate for x years??
 

YorkRailFan

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can't that be explored for Manchester, when it has for Edinburgh? Which is an identical route.
One thing to note here, Lumo cited air traffic as their main competition on the London-Edinburgh service, not LNER. Whilst there are flights between Manchester & London, these are less competitive with the train between the two time wise than with Edinburgh & London. The market for flights between Edinburgh & London is much higher than the market for flights between Manchester & London so provided Lumo a source of passengers to extract from rather than LNER.

I don't know if air passengers between Edinburgh & London have decreased since Lumo started in 2021 (I'd been interested to see if anyone has the data) but GC doesn't have this source of passengers to tap into. The market for coaches between London & Manchester is smaller than the market for flights between Edinburgh & London. Lumo probably did abstract some passengers from LNER with cheaper fares but will have been able to abstract from airlines. GC will not be able to do this at the same scale with coach companies compared to Avanti.

The argument for abstracting from coach companies between Bristol & London might be better. The 040 provides an hourly (if not more frequent) service between Victoria Coach Station and takes 2 hours 45 minutes (20 minutes longer than proposed GC timetable).
 

JonathanH

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The argument for abstracting from coach companies between Bristol & London might be better. The 040 provides an hourly (if not more frequent) service between Victoria Coach Station and takes 2 hours 45 minutes (20 minutes longer than proposed GC timetable).
There can't be much chance that Grand Central could match coach fares. Is there really a need for them to do so?
 

YorkRailFan

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There can't be much chance that Grand Central could match coach fares. Is there really a need for them to do so?
I doubt they could to keep the service viable. GC could be an attractive option for those looking for fares between the existing TOCs (Avanti, GWR) and coaches as a sort of middle ground.
 

The Planner

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Looking at capacity a big issue has always been that from Harecastle Junction at Kidsgrove to North Junction at Cheadle Hulme, there is no spare capacity.

I think Grand Central are a bit optimistic to think that they will get train paths on this section.
Never heard it called Harecastle Jn in all my years. They are basically following right behind a fast path from what I can see.
 

Zomboid

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I doubt they could to keep the service viable. GC could be an attractive option for those looking for fares between the existing TOCs (Avanti, GWR) and coaches as a sort of middle ground.
Currently you can get a super off peak Bristol to London via Warminster and Salisbury for £33.50, or anytime is £55.20, which are flexible tickets but don't jump out as spectacular bargains, so perhaps there's something to be had there.
 

thenorthern

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Never heard it called Harecastle Jn in all my years. They are basically following right behind a fast path from what I can see.

Just checked, according to Network Rail you are right it's called Kidsgrove Junction. I have heard both Kidsgrove Junction and Harecastle Junction names used.
 

styles

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One thing to note here, Lumo cited air traffic as their main competition on the London-Edinburgh service, not LNER. Whilst there are flights between Manchester & London, these are less competitive with the train between the two time wise than with Edinburgh & London. The market for flights between Edinburgh & London is much higher than the market for flights between Manchester & London so provided Lumo a source of passengers to extract from rather than LNER.

I don't know if air passengers between Edinburgh & London have decreased since Lumo started in 2021 (I'd been interested to see if anyone has the data) but GC doesn't have this source of passengers to tap into. The market for coaches between London & Manchester is smaller than the market for flights between Edinburgh & London. Lumo probably did abstract some passengers from LNER with cheaper fares but will have been able to abstract from airlines. GC will not be able to do this at the same scale with coach companies compared to Avanti.

The argument for abstracting from coach companies between Bristol & London might be better. The 040 provides an hourly (if not more frequent) service between Victoria Coach Station and takes 2 hours 45 minutes (20 minutes longer than proposed GC timetable).
Well, it depends whose statistics you believe :D


Rail has overtaken air travel to become the preferred mode of transport between Edinburgh and London.


It is a second milestone in the first year of operation for FirstGroup’s low-cost, fully electric rail operator Lumo after it attracted a million passengers.


Between April and August, more than half (57%) of journeys between the two capitals were by rail, compared to a pre-pandemic position of 35%. Two-thirds (63%) of travellers chose rail over domestic flights in July, suggesting the trend may be set to continue.

Now, I'm no fan of Lumo presumably marking their own homework here, but the claimed difference (35% -> 57%) is quite remarkable. Even if that's somehow been inflated by Lumo's marketing department a bit, it suggests there has been a genuine modal shift.

Personally I don't really like airports, and mainland domestic travel really ought to be by rail where possible, so I'll happily take Lumo as it's a bit quicker and a bit cheaper than LNER, though LNER is my preferred operator on the ECML.

Whenever I've been on Lumo services I've noticed a very large number of suitcases, which does to me suggest people might be taking it as an alternative to flying, where the budget airlines may compete on price but not when you want to take hold luggage. It got so bad on Lumo services that they've reallocated a number of seats as additional luggage storage.

So on the whole, while I don't have a mountain of stats to hand, I suspect First Group are right to say they're abstracting air traffic on the London-Edinburgh route.

However, I'm not so convinced about other routes. London to Glasgow by Lumo is 5h32m. The flight time is less than 1h20m-1h30m scheduled depending on Stansted or Heathrow. Even if you chuck an hour and a half on for getting from city centre to/from the airports, you're still looking at saving about 2.5h. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy the Avanti WCML to Glasgow route but I think a lot of people just want to get places quicker. Lumo is also famously undercutting Avanti by 10p on many fares it seems, which means they'll feature more often on booking engines, but ultimately if someone was happier to fly than pay say £130, then they're unlikely to be swayed by only having to pay £129.90 (these are made up fares but you get the idea).

As far as I'm aware, BA are the only airline offering direct Manchester<->London flights, and they're not on the budget side, so I can't imagine too many people who were flying that route before would switch to rail if fares came down marginally, but who knows.
 

Bald Rick

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Manchester - London by air is now almost entirely passengers who are changing planes at Heathrow, or have business at or near one or other of the airports. Lumo wouldn’t have any effect on them.
 

YorkRailFan

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Currently you can get a super off peak Bristol to London via Warminster and Salisbury for £33.50, or anytime is £55.20, which are flexible tickets but don't jump out as spectacular bargains, so perhaps there's something to be had there.
Perhaps and a proposed bi-hourly service isn't too limiting in terms of options.
Manchester - London by air is now almost entirely passengers who are changing planes at Heathrow, or have business at or near one or other of the airports. Lumo wouldn’t have any effect on them.
Neither would GC, they'd be abstracting from Avanti, LNR splitting at Crewe and very unlikely coaches. It doesn't really make sense to fly Manchester - London with the intention of ending in London considering timings.
So on the whole, while I don't have a mountain of stats to hand, I suspect First Group are right to say they're abstracting air traffic on the London-Edinburgh route.
Well yes, they're not going to claim that they're abstracting from LNER.
Whenever I've been on Lumo services I've noticed a very large number of suitcases, which does to me suggest people might be taking it as an alternative to flying, where the budget airlines may compete on price but not when you want to take hold luggage. It got so bad on Lumo services that they've reallocated a number of seats as additional luggage storage.
Considering Lumo doesn't have a First Class offering, they'd primarily be abstracting leisure travellers from economy class. Any business travellers would likely go with LNER to make use of their First Class offering. These leisure travellers will be primarily focused on price rather than journey time.
However, I'm not so convinced about other routes. London to Glasgow by Lumo is 5h32m. The flight time is less than 1h20m-1h30m scheduled depending on Stansted or Heathrow. Even if you chuck an hour and a half on for getting from city centre to/from the airports, you're still looking at saving about 2.5h. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy the Avanti WCML to Glasgow route but I think a lot of people just want to get places quicker.
There is also time added on for being at the airport much earlier than you would be at the train station so you can go through security and also bag drop (circumstances depending). Lumo would claim that they're providing new Newcastle - Glasgow journeys not competing with Avanti.
 

A S Leib

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Lumo would claim that they're providing new Newcastle - Glasgow journeys not competing with Avanti.
Could they reasonably claim that CrossCountry reinstating bihourly Glasgow services is a response to that?
 

The Mercian

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Just a further point on Manchester-London flights by BA, I recently found out that these are pretty much specifically done to generate connectivity into International Flights. In addition if you’re booking your international flight with Avios the internal connector to Heathrow is “free”.
 

Iskra

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Just a further point on Manchester-London flights by BA, I recently found out that these are pretty much specifically done to generate connectivity into International Flights. In addition if you’re booking your international flight with Avios the internal connector to Heathrow is “free”.
They are pretty unreliable though, so not worth bothering with if you want a nice start to your holiday without an unexpected taxi journey to Heathrow at your own expense.
 

Snow1964

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Is there any news on Grand centrals new route?
I suspect the only news we'll hear about said routes is the ORR rejecting them for being downright bonkers.
The ORR seems to be a bit to close to Network Rail sometimes, rather than act like an Independent regulator.

If it was something like a big planning application, would be a 12 week limit to determine, and if a statutory consultee doesn't reply within a period, assume no comment or objection. ORR seems to be happy to wait months for Network Rail, rather than make its determination within say 3 or 4 months.

I am of the opinion, decisions still not made 5+ months after applications are wrong, and regulators should have reasonable timescales, and not wait for very late comments, because unfair on applicant, who should get a yes or no. Delaying answering affects others, eg manufacturers or lease company's that might have given a time limited offer price.
 

Rail2002

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Moderator note: split from

If this is better off in a new thread, happy for this to be split, but went here as it's the same Open Access Operator.

According to the latest RAIL edition, GC have applied for two new OA routes, one from St Pancras-Manchester, and the other from Waterloo-Bristol Temple Meads.

The former is proposed to call at Luton Airport Pkwy (pickup/set down only), Wellingborough, Leicester, Loughborough, Derby, Uttoxeter, Stoke-on-Trent, Congleton, Macclesfield, Stockport and Manchester Picc.

The latter is Clapham Jct, Salisbury, Warminster, Westbury, Trowbridge, Bradford-on-Avon, Bath Spa, Bristol TM.

Both services have raised concerns about available paths (and platform space at St Pancras), as well as potential revenue abstraction.

If they were to be somehow approved, the 180s would transfer to the Manchester services when 820s are in service, while new stock would have to be procured for Waterloo-Bristol.
Saint Pancras could be a problem with there only being 4 platforms on the domestic terminal. I can forsee it passing revenue extraction testing though, with it calling at Wellingborough & Luton, where EMR services don't regularly call on the way to Derby. Uttoxeter is a sizeable town and the racecourse and nearby Alton Towers could bring in some custom.
 

The Planner

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The ORR seems to be a bit to close to Network Rail sometimes, rather than act like an Independent regulator.

If it was something like a big planning application, would be a 12 week limit to determine, and if a statutory consultee doesn't reply within a period, assume no comment or objection. ORR seems to be happy to wait months for Network Rail, rather than make its determination within say 3 or 4 months.

I am of the opinion, decisions still not made 5+ months after applications are wrong, and regulators should have reasonable timescales, and not wait for very late comments, because unfair on applicant, who should get a yes or no. Delaying answering affects others, eg manufacturers or lease company's that might have given a time limited offer price.
That assumes NR has the resource to fully evaluate the proposals. People aren't sat waiting for applications to arrive in their inbox.
 

Clarence Yard

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The ORR seems to be a bit to close to Network Rail sometimes, rather than act like an Independent regulator.

If it was something like a big planning application, would be a 12 week limit to determine, and if a statutory consultee doesn't reply within a period, assume no comment or objection. ORR seems to be happy to wait months for Network Rail, rather than make its determination within say 3 or 4 months.

I am of the opinion, decisions still not made 5+ months after applications are wrong, and regulators should have reasonable timescales, and not wait for very late comments, because unfair on applicant, who should get a yes or no. Delaying answering affects others, eg manufacturers or lease company's that might have given a time limited offer price.

The ORR are not at all close to NR but they don’t have their own operational people now so they rely on NR too much. This has been a real bone of contention with applicants because NR (sometimes deliberately) take ages to reply and the ORR are now engaging consultants to help them catch up.

The ORR are expecting to lose their powers to determine in December 2027 and after the Railways Bill becomes law in the next few months, it will be increasingly difficult for them to make substantial decisions in the interim for applications that will impinge on the new GBR decision making processes (which will be much harder for OA to pass) and their associated documents, which will kick in from December 2027. Most OA applications will be for long term access.

So, if GC don’t get a decision this side of Xmas they may not get one from the ORR and they might get a rejection and then told to reapply to GBR.
 

Snow1964

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The ORR are not at all close to NR but they don’t have their own operational people now so they rely on NR too much. This has been a real bone of contention with applicants because NR (sometimes deliberately) take ages to reply
Thats the point I intended to make (but I did it badly), if ORR are relying a bit on Network Rail then that is a close, rather than purely independent relationship, because an Independent person would ignore late submissions and treat it as no objection, and move to decision, not bias or delay their decision because one side (NR) has influence

So, if GC don’t get a decision this side of Xmas they may not get one from the ORR and they might get a rejection and then told to reapply to GBR.
If a decision isn't made by Christmas, my other point stands, not reasonable to take 5+ months to say yes or no.
 

Zomboid

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an Independent person would ignore late submissions and treat it as no objection, and move to decision, not bias or delay their decision because one side (NR) has influence
You can't do that with critical national infrastructure, which I believe the railway qualifies as. It's not next doors planning application for a conservatory, it's generally something that will impact reliability on one of the country's trunk main lines.

Rights are sometimes still awarded despite NRs objections.
 

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