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TfW potential future rolling stock procurements

Zomboid

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solution would be more paths for more commuter services leaving the longer distance trains between Holyhead and Manchester to miss a lot of "intermediate" stations.
Paths that probably are not available
They probably serve as commuter trains because that's what the demand is. Manchester to Prestatyn, Rhyl etc alone probably does not justify a regular express service (certainly not enough to justify a Castlefield path), but as a semi fast where there are a large number of station pairs it adds up to something worth running.
 
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Bletchleyite

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Bu which measure (distance) only XC plus London to Plymouth, Newcastle or Preston and beyond would be InterCity then?

It's not just about how far it is, it's about the nature of usage too. The service is used primarily for overlapping short distance journeys with a significant turnover of passengers at Chester. It isn't primarily used for long through journeys. Even the idea that lots of people would do Manchester to Holyhead for the ferry is long gone, with most of those passengers heading for the airport instead (or driving to the ferry and taking their car on it).

It's more Liverpool-Norwich (regional) than Liverpool-London (IC).
 

Harpo

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It's not just about how far it is, it's about the nature of usage too. The service is used primarily for overlapping short distance journeys with a significant turnover of passengers at Chester.
A definition that leaves nothing on XC, MML or GWML as InterCity, and ditto any WCMLs with multiple calls south of Crewe MFK or LNERs with multiple calls south of York. It’s a proper slippery slope.
 

Bletchleyite

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A definition that leaves nothing on XC, MML or GWML as InterCity, and ditto any WCMLs with multiple calls south of Crewe MFK or LNERs with multiple calls south of York. It’s a proper slippery slope.

I disagree. MML, GWML, LNER and Avanti services are primarily used for medium to long distance journeys to/from London. This is very different from the TfW North Wales service.

XC is a bit mixed. Arguably these days it's (in classic German terms) more IR than IC. But the North Wales Coast, if you ignore "misuse" in the West Midlands, is hugely less intercity in usage than XC's Voyager service (their Class 170 services are without any doubt regional expresses).

Yes, there are Reading and MKC commuters but these are not the primary intended users of the service. They basically use spare capacity.
 

Harpo

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I disagree. MML, GWML, LNER and Avanti services are primarily used for medium to long distance journeys to/from London. This is very different from the TfW North Wales service.
Try travelling north of Kettering or south from Derby without using InterCity services. Ditto GWML west of Reading or East from Bristol Parkway or Bath. Avanti may have a London focus but it’s Scotland via Birminghams are clearly not a to/from London north of Brum.

It would be a tragedy to see TfW’s bold IC-style service downgraded through sloppy definitions.
 

Bletchleyite

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Try travelling north of Kettering or south from Derby without using InterCity services. Ditto GWML west of Reading or East from Bristol Parkway or Bath. Avanti may have a London focus but it’s Scotland via Birminghams are clearly not a to/from London north of Brum.

Birmingham-London is a bit of an exception with regard to the "intercityness" of Avanti, and to be fair I'm sure I read somewhere that Hendy was murmuring about considering a more integrated style of service on that route (which I guess might mean more of it operated by WMT recognising its more local role than most of Avanti).

The rest of it e.g. local journeys on intercity routes that lack local services because Beeching closed all the local stations (e.g. Wigan-Warrington and the likes) is de-minimis to the overall service.

It would be a tragedy to see TfW’s bold IC-style service downgraded through sloppy definitions.

The North Wales Coast has, aside from the London trains* and the 1-2 times a day Gerald which was always just a political project, never had an intercity service in even vaguely recent years. Even the 37 hauled services were not in intercity style, they were tatty old stock with old 37s - fun for enthusiasts but definitely regional. Manchester-Holyhead is a regional express. Liverpool-Llandudno is the local stopping service, albeit one with reasonable end to end demand. The intercity style service is Manchester-Cardiff, and this is all about getting it new intercity style rolling stock!

* My personal view would be that I'd cut Birmingham-Holyhead back to Chester and replace it with the London service running hourly all day and evening rather than that being laid on top in random hours, with the Manchester doing the request stops, but TfW might shout about the political nature of that. If they must have it, two of these paths could terminate at Chester and the "Gerald" run in its place.
 

Torfaen

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Funny how people think money grows on trees in Wales.
TfW has been very fortunate in being able to replace virtually its entire fleet in the last few years, and has picked up extra funding which probably should have gone to other sectors (notably health and education).
I haven't seen much of Plaid's rail policy but they face the same funding issues as before.
I could possibly see TfW hanging on to its 158s a while longer than planned, but new stock seems well out of reach to me.
TfW has to deploy its existing fleets to their planned potential first, before asking for more.
The Mk4s are going to need replacing. TfW may have acquired them cheap, but they probably aren't cheap to keep running. Their availability is poor and too often get substituted by a 2- or 3-car 197. When the temperature goes above 30 degrees TfW pull them all from service.
The Welsh government isn't awash with money, but without a plan for more stock sometime in the 2030s they will be faced with some pretty stark choices.
 

Jez

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Or does TfW need a new fleet of long-distance units to replace Mk4s and 197s on the S Wales to Manchester route, thereby releasing enough 197s to cover new and additional services?

While the Mk4s are very comfy they can't have too many years left in them, and 197s are not ideal for the route. It would be good to have a consistent fleet with first class and catering which could also make use of electric traction when under the wires.
Personally unless im in First Class I prefer a 197 over a MK4.

However I do agree that there needs to be a consistent fleet on the Manchester-South Wales. Currently one hour you have a train with First Class and Intercity style seating and the other hour a DMU without first class (aside from the Standard Plus section on certain services which was withdrawn before it got started). It must confuse passengers who are not in the know like us.

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It's their main intercity style route (sort of) in terms of usage patterns that doesn't require short units for reasons of portion working. You could use intercity style units on Aberystwyth but then you would need Pwllheli to be a connection which wouldn't be popular. Cardiff to North Wales is potentially the other one but I suspect that has a lot of passenger turnover at intermediates, I'd question the level of actual demand for going to Cardiff from North Wales given the reality of the economy of Wales.
I think the problem with the Marches is it can be used as an intercity service with people travelling from Swansea and Cardiff to Manchester but is also used for local journeys by the majority of passengers, with people getting on at the likes of Ludlow and Craven Arms and going to Shrewsbury for example. Or people travelling from Abergavenny and Cwmbran to either Hereford or Cardiff. There are definitely long distance passengers many of whom go all the way from Cardiff to Manchester or change at Crewe for other long distance service but id say 75% is local traffic.

TFW are trying to an extent to cater for this with 197s stopping at most stations one hour whilst the MK4 is more limited stop.

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The Mk4s are going to need replacing. TfW may have acquired them cheap, but they probably aren't cheap to keep running. Their availability is poor and too often get substituted by a 2- or 3-car 197. When the temperature goes above 30 degrees TfW pull them all from service.
The Welsh government isn't awash with money, but without a plan for more stock sometime in the 2030s they will be faced with some pretty stark choices.
I agree. Availability is still poor 2 or 3 years down the line. The last few weeks at least one diagram has been subbed for a 197 regularly and sometimes 2 diagrams. The quicker they get replaced the better IMO.

And the replacement should then cover all Manchester-Swansea services with the 197s replacing the 153s and 230s for example.
 
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Tio Terry

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They would need to consider the Stadler offerings, from my admittedly old experiences of TFW stations they suffer from many different platform heights, so something that can comply with the step free access requirements must be a front runner.
 

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