If we were ranking problems to solve by the impact they're having.. I think it's this:
1. North end platform availability
2. South end platform availability
3. North end number of tracks at throat and approach.
4. South end number of tracks at throat and approach.
Why (1) then (2) not (3) and (4) first? Almost without fail (for me) a southbound terminating unit sits in the tunnel waiting for a platform. If capacity of that track was an issue, the unit shouldn't be sitting there eating 2-3x the capacity of a non-stop run. At the south end, platforms are obviously the issue too - because there's no 'solid rock' excuse for not being 4-track. And yet it's still "red before you get a colour".
Use the platforms better, or increase their number, and you make room for more paths.
How?
Stop using platform 8 for terminating services: use it for southbound through services. Every time an ex-London terminates there, it crosses the throat and no southbounds can leave whilst that's routed.
Ditto platform 1: it's easy to see how screwed up it is:
- a Norwich-Liverpool on platform 1 (eg. 1R60 at 0938) has to block the throat for other arrivals from south while it leaves, but were it at platform 2, 5, or 6, it wouldn't.
- or, an ex-Huddersfield using platform 1 to terminate, blocks all northbounds whilst it threads to platform 1, and it probably waits in the tunnels to get that path in 1 too.. in order to let an XC or TPE head north/east, meanwhile a southbound XC sits blocked behind the Huddersfield whilst it waits for that route and platform ..
in a perfect running day, the current plan might all flow nicely - but Sheffield doesn't have those.
That's XC and TPE, and the NT Leeds-Notts services sorted, no conflicts. 4 trains each way per hour. (8 of the 26 that flow through the northern throat per hour, 8 of the 20 movements for the southern throat).
I'd be interested to see the simulations try that.. and impact of perturbations. I bet it makes things better.
Then physical upgrades:
- platform 2c (the bay) is too short - meaning platform 2 is often used to terminate the Manchesters (can only fit 2-cars but many of those are 3-car), which blocks XC's _current_ favourite platform for northbounds (whilst platform 1 may be empty.. is a 60-second delay waiting for the Manchester to leave late worth doing a platform change late for? .. nope, so the XC gets to see S77 for a bit longer)
Break platform 5 into two halves, a scissor/crossover in the middle Like Cambridge's original through platform. Can now be used two fit two terminators, from either or both directions. Move southbound pointwork and signal (as it makes the platform only 237m compared to northbound 326m).
The current bays like p3 which can fit two services require things to arrive and leave in the correct order. p4 is too short to fit two services now (only 4-car total, and there are a lot of 3-car out there now). a platform 5 scissor like set up wouldn't have that issue.
I bet that these two physical changes get the extra platforms that are needed.. but equally, a platform at the north end of platform 6/7 island has been talked about and would do nicely.. particularly if platform 8 is only used for through services.