Guildford council have responded to
an FoI request someone made with 200+ pages of correspondence, both internal and with Network Rail and SWR, regarding this application.
From a quick skim read through, I don't think there are any huge revelations but there are some interesting tidbits:
- SWR considered introducing local residents' passes at one point before the closure trial. It's unclear why this option was not progressed further as it seems a sensible way of addressing the key issues
- Despite external communications suggesting they were merely gathering data to decide on the next steps, SWR had already decided they want to close the bridge to the public permanently and just used the trial to gather the data they hoped would justify this
Something else I hadn't noticed before, when reading through the supporting documents which Network Rail provided for the application, it that the temporary closure had much less effect on fare evasion than they are claiming.
The table below has some seriously dodgy statistics, including comparing each type of irregularity individually instead of comparing the total number of irregularities. An irregularity can be dealt with in different ways purely depending on the member of staff encountered (e.g. whether they're a guard or RPI):
View attachment 209194
In the 4 months before the trial, the total number of irregularities was 536. In the 4 months after, it was 477. They try to claim that the number of irregularities was 42-50% lower during the closure trial, but that is nonsense because they are comparing a 3 month trial with 4 month periods either side.
The 321 irregularities reported during the trial are equivalent to 428 if extrapolated to 4 months. Which is only 10% less than in the 4 months after the closure, and 20% less than the 4 months before.
When you consider the fact that the closure included some of the quietest times of year for rail travel (Christmas and New Year) it hardly seems like the closure had much impact at all - which is the opposite of what they're claiming with their (mis)interpretation of the data.
We also have no data on the number of days where there were blockades during each of those periods. If there were fewer blockades during the trial - perhaps because they thought they deploy their RPIs elsewhere with the bridge problem temporarily 'solved' - then that would also explain a reduction in irregularities.
Furthermore they haven't provided any statistics on the difference in the number of tickets bought to London Road (an obvious short faring destination) or any difference in footfall at London Road (the nearest unbarriered station).
There's lies, damned lies and statistics, as the saying goes...