For end to end travel, no major investment in the rail service is likely to be worth the money. The FNL is one of my favourite lines, but ultimately it's a very slow railway that isn't particularly useful north of Rogart. Buses can reach Golspie and places further north over half an hour faster as they can take the bridges via Dornoch, not to mention they're much cheaper and also electric.
Rail is in most cases a fundamentally better suited mode of travel for long distances - it's more comfortable, higher capacity, and can reach higher speeds. Between Inverness and Caithness though, Ember wins in all those three categories. To get to the point where you actually reap the benefits of running trains and not buses, you'd have to get the quality of the service up to Highland Mainline levels at a minimum. No Scottish Government will ever pay for that. It's frustrating but at the same time perfectly makes sense - a £100M project in the Highlands will positively affect a small fraction of the people that the same investment in the Central Belt would, so it's lower priority.
So if it were up to me, thinking of actually feasible ways of improving the service, here's what I'd do:
- 1tph Inverness to Tain, extending to either Lairg (timed bus connections to various towns in Sutherland) or Golspie (to give Rogart a train service) every 2-3 hours.
- Tourist service with panorama cars from Inverness to Wick or Thurso, running 2-3 times a day.
- Hourly (or half-hourly) coach route from Inverness to Wick and/or Thurso
I'm not sure what exactly would be the best solution for the places inbetween Helmsdale and Georgemas Junction (e.g. Kinbrace/Forsinard) as it's off the main bus route to Wick and Thurso. A timed bus connection off the main coach route would be a solution, although it wouldn't be a great alternative to the 1-seat train ride that currently exists, even if it'd be over an hour faster. Alternatively a Helmsdale - Thurso/Wick train service could be retained, connecting off the main Inverness coach route.
An similar situation exists in northern Spain, on the various narrow-gauge lines. The through services between the larger settlements (e.g. Ferrol, Oviedo, Santander, Bilbao) are very scenic but much slower than the services provided by various long-distance coach companies. Rolling stock is unsuitable and line condition is poor, but that's more due to decades of Renfe/FEVE neglect.
The strategy has essentially been to develop and invest in the route as far as 1-2h out of the cities, running a fairly frequent commuter service. Then the rural gap inbetween has a barebones 2-per-day train service plus the occasional tourist train. End-to-end travellers can take coach services - which, while they could certainly do with some more fares regulation and co-ordination, do the job fairly well. This solution isn't anywhere near perfect, but it makes the most use of lines that are otherwise complete basket cases, which likely wouldn't otherwise get close to the top of the investment priority list.
Essentially, a compromise is needed. Trying to make an intercity line out of a slow and winding regional rail route means spending a lot of money on a service that will be ultimately outcompeted by the long-distance bus anyway. You'd most likely make a few enemies while doing it too, as closing stations like Altnabreac, Scotscalder or Culrain is overall likely beneficial but very politically unpopular. At the same time, if we don't want to close the line, doing nothing isn't a great solution, as the line is a money sink. As much as a 125mph Inverness-Caithness railway would be the optimal solution, it won't happen in our lifetimes.
So the first thing ScotRail should do is accept is that it won't win the competition against Ember and Stagecoach for those flows, unless it has a few £billion to spare. The next thing is to make the most of what they have, and recognise what they can fit within their budget. For the Far North Line, the train is faster than the bus as far as Lairg, so that's the section which they should focus on. The northernmost section of the route (Wick-Thurso-Helmsdale) is useful too. Then, if they can afford the upfront costs, they may as well make use of the scenic nature of the route and run a few Swiss-style tourist train money spinners.
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