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Cross-country overcrowding: what could be done?

stevieinselby

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I read somewhere on this forum that GWR have a surplus of 5-car 800/0 trains.
If GWR have any theoretical surplus of trains then they would be better used ensuring that GWR are able to reliably run a full timetable with adequate capacity, instead of the usual mess of short-formed trains on intercity services and totally inadequate 2/3-car DMUs running on key provincial routes like the Cornish mainline or Cardiff to Portsmouth. No point in robbing Peter to pay Paul.
 
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Iskra

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Wouldn’t it be better if any GWR units were used, that they just do Bristol to the South West as shuttles to reduce operational complexity. This could release some Voyagers for strengthening. Doing that along with XC picking up the spare Voyager Units would probably solve most problems on the Voyager routes. To take it a step further spare 350’s could run Birmingham-Manchester shuttles and/or York-Edinburgh/Glasgow shuttles to allow capacity improvements on the Turbostar routes too.

Not pretty, not ideal but it would solve most issues with extant resources.
Further to my earlier post, another easy cut would be the Glasgow extensions to save a couple of units. There’s a perfectly adequate Scotrail service between Edinburgh and Glasgow. Not the biggest saving, but every little helps.
 

sprinterguy

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Further to my earlier post, another easy cut would be the Glasgow extensions to save a couple of units. There’s a perfectly adequate Scotrail service between Edinburgh and Glasgow. Not the biggest saving, but every little helps.
The two services each day that start or finish at Glasgow do so in marginal time. Two units spare only before 07:30 in the morning and after 22:00 at night would be of limited utility - they'd just spend slightly longer on depot overnight. During the main part of the day they're operating within the Edinburgh - Plymouth core section, so there'd be no units saved.
 

Iskra

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The two services each day that start or finish at Glasgow do so in marginal time. Two units spare only before 07:30 in the morning and after 22:00 at night would be of limited utility - they'd just spend slightly longer on depot overnight. During the main part of the day they're operating within the Edinburgh - Plymouth core section, so there'd be no units saved.
I thought they were increasing the Glasgow extensions in the next timetable?
 

The exile

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Never going to happen, but…

Adapt those 350/2s so they can be diesel-hauled in service (and a suitable number of locos- 68s - to match) and run 8 cars Bristol - Manchester, using the units freed up to strengthen other services.
 

sprinterguy

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I thought they were increasing the Glasgow extensions in the next timetable?
Must admit I hadn't read anything/can't find a press release about that, so apologies if so. I was basing my comment on the current timetable as that's the only one I can refer to.
 
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brad465

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I read somewhere on this forum that GWR have a surplus of 5-car 800/0 trains. Six out of thirty five would be very useful to relieve overcrowding on Edinburgh-Bristol or Manchester-Bristol where they could run on OHLE for half of the time replacing six 220/221 units for strengthening other XC services
Moorthorpe-Sheffield/Doncaster-Swinton electrification is a priority for SYCA for Leeds-Sheffield fast and Adwick-Sheffield stoppers to covert to electric units. This would allow XC to operate on electric as far south as Sheffield using 800s.
If MML electrification was to restart southwards from Sheffield to Derby then Edinburgh-Bristol services could run as far south as Derby on electric. That would allow two MML and two XC services each way per hour between Sheffield and Derby operating on electric.
West Midlands intends to electrify all lines Kings Norton to Barnt Green so this will allow Manchester-Bristol services to operate on electric between Manchester and Bromsgrove.
If GWR have any theoretical surplus of trains then they would be better used ensuring that GWR are able to reliably run a full timetable with adequate capacity, instead of the usual mess of short-formed trains on intercity services and totally inadequate 2/3-car DMUs running on key provincial routes like the Cornish mainline or Cardiff to Portsmouth. No point in robbing Peter to pay Paul.
If GWR really do have a surplus (I'd be surprised if they do ahead of all 175s in service), they'd be sorting out short-forms on IC services first.

If however there is a genuine surplus, I'd be using them on the parts of the network shared with XC to provide extra capacity that indirectly relieves XC overcrowding, such as:

-Extending the hourly London-Oxford services to Banbury (ignoring the Cotswold line services which remain unchanged)
-Extending London-WSM terminators to Exeter
-Increase frequency of Cardiff/Bristol-Taunton/Exeter services
 

The Ham

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Extending the hourly London-Oxford services to Banbury (ignoring the Cotswold line services which remain unchanged)

Just doing this could significantly ease overcrowding on XC services at the southern end of the SE services, as it would put Birmingham (and potentially helpfully a different part of Birmingham) just one change away from Reading and give Banbury to Oxford travelers a fast but higher capacity service to use.
 

brad465

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Just doing this could significantly ease overcrowding on XC services at the southern end of the SE services, as it would put Birmingham (and potentially helpfully a different part of Birmingham) just one change away from Reading and give Banbury to Oxford travelers a fast but higher capacity service to use.
Yes Banbury is the fourth-highest passenger flow from Oxford with over 250k passengers a year; in the past it has been third-highest. Get as many of these passengers off XC onto a GWR extension/higher frequency and that's a big deal. If GWR can't do this, the other option would be get Chiltern to run more services if they ever have the stock; this would have the benefit you could run them further towards Birmingham if line capacity allows.
 
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There is quite a heavy amount of recruitment going on for additional train crew across various depots, which should alleviate having units locked out of use on certain routes.
 

LMS 4F

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I must declare an interest as I have a relative who works for X Country.
This discussion just goes round and round. The fact is they want more stock and the agreements to be able to work them.
They are being held back by the DFT and behind them the Treasury and it seems will be held in this limbo for some considerable time.
Then there is the issue of getting staff, training them and of course that all costs money as well.
Anyone who thinks this will improve once the DFT take over should go and lie down in a dark room, they will get better eventually.
Anything else is just speculation and if you are on an overcrowded X Country train don’t blame the staff, blame those responsible back to those who selected Voyagers in the first place with their inadequate layout.
Rant Over
 

Farigiraf

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blame those responsible back to those who selected Voyagers in the first place with their inadequate layout.
Wasn't it Virgin who specified Voyager layout & length, not the DfT? They assumed that the Operation Princess frequency uplifts would reduce the need for longer formations, though rail usage has increased quite a lot since then. Of course the DfT isn't free of blame either way - Voyager replacement & cascading should be underway by now really (alongside a mainline electrification programme) - but Virgin seems to have played a part in the debacle too.
 

Krokodil

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The following is the number of in service seats (allowing 85% of sets in service for the new fleet and 10% for the existing fleet):

13,024 - current 22x fleet
14,331 - current 22x fleet + the spares
17,630 - original 5/9 coach option
19,528 - upgraded 5/9 coach option
20,856+ - universal 7 coach option*

* there maybe a few extra seats per set if the 1st class seating wasn't a full coach, but the above gives a good enough comparison.
I'm unsure how you intend to diagram your 19 9 car sets. Plymouth-Edinburgh has something like 18 diagrams, so if you concentrated them on that route you'd need 21 to cover for maintenance. An XC diagram will cover multiple busy flows so it would be difficult to decide which to give a 5 car to. That's before considering the Bournemouth-Manchester-Bristol diagrams (another 18 diagrams which again see some busy flows). If we're fixing the number of vehicles at the current level then it would be better to have 26x7 and 26x5 which would allow you to spread the fleet more broadly than having a small number of very long trains.

That gives you 11,778+7,774 = 19,552 (using the Avanti interior specs, which are far better than the IET accommodation) for 312 vehicles.

Using the 342 vehicle baseline you've got from using the off-lease units, you could have 41x7 and 11x5 which would be enough to strengthen both the Anglo-Scots and the Manchester diagrams, leaving the shorter sets to the Reading-Newcastle circuit. 21,862 seats.

Worth remembering that any new fleet will drink less fuel and be more efficient to staff than Voyagers.

It's also worth noting that not all 5 coach sets are created equal:
Class 221 has 246 seats
Class 800 has 302 (LNER) or 326 (GWR)
802 has 326 (GWR) 327 (Hull Trains) or 342 seats (TPE)

As such even a LNER set replacing a 221 in service would provide an uplift in capacity of 22.76% (although would more likely be being used to replace single 220 workings which would be a 50% uplift in capacity).
How many single 220 diagrams remain? Don't most of them run coupled up these days except on the Reading-Newcastle run? Today's allocations aren't reliable as there's a lot of disruption.

A 22.76% uplift on a 221 isn't going to go far, not with the amount of suppressed demand XC has.

but this thread is really about the shortage of capacity today and what can be done to alleviate it.
Approve the off-lease 221s and sort out the staffing issues as a stopgap. But they really do need to look at ordering some new trains.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Wasn't it Virgin who specified Voyager layout & length, not the DfT?
Chris Green realised what was going to happen and wanted to increase unit lengths. The Strategic Rail Authority (who were the contemporary equivalent of the DfT for this purpose) said "no".
 

quantinghome

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Wasn't it Virgin who specified Voyager layout & length, not the DfT? They assumed that the Operation Princess frequency uplifts would reduce the need for longer formations, though rail usage has increased quite a lot since then. Of course the DfT isn't free of blame either way - Voyager replacement & cascading should be underway by now really (alongside a mainline electrification programme) - but Virgin seems to have played a part in the debacle too.

Chris Green realised what was going to happen and wanted to increase unit lengths. The Strategic Rail Authority (who were the contemporary equivalent of the DfT for this purpose) said "no".

Trains were swamped from the very start of Operation Princess. There was a complete mismatch between Virgin's aspiration to increase XC rail usage and the capacity provided. And the overly ambitious journey time reductions meant the timetable broke down. That's on them.

What I hasn't realised was that the Virgin XC franchise was converted to a management contract shortly before Operation Princess went live, not afterwards. This was linked to the failure of the WCML upgrade under Railtrack rather than the failure of Operation Princess itself.

My guess is that the SRA was only really concerned about salvaging the wreckage and staunching XC's losses rather than investing. And they had bigger things to worry about like the collapse of Railtrack and the failure of the WCML upgrade. And so it has remained - for the last 24 years.
 

Krokodil

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My guess is that the SRA was only really concerned about salvaging the wreckage and staunching XC's losses rather than investing. And they had bigger things to worry about like the collapse of Railtrack and the failure of the WCML upgrade. And so it has remained - for the last 24 years.
And those 24 years are on the DfT - or its predecessors.
 

Krokodil

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100%. You can't avoid the problem you've been handed becoming your problem.
And solving it was in their gift (though the Treasury are an obstacle). Unfortunately rather than solving the problem the solution has been to just hike fares up to extortionate levels, which has had the unintended consequence of making split ticketing very attractive on this route. Suddenly instead of XC getting most of the fare, it's having to share revenue with local operators because according to the tickets sold, people are just making a series of local journeys. So XC revenue drops (even though the railway as a whole is still getting it all) and it looks even less economic. So you end up with wedged trains, sky-high fares, and XC still can't turn a profit. Someone really needs to grasp the nettle.
 

quantinghome

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Someone really needs to grasp the nettle.
It's odd that no one has. Of course the four "main lines" have received upgrades. But also Anglia, Wales, Northern and Transpennine have all had new rolling stock. Perhaps it's because it's not a regional service so has no one to particularly champion its services.
 

The exile

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It doesn't serve the capital so MPs aren't using it to get to work.
And it is the “prime mover” for very small numbers in any particular area. For certain flows it is very important but seen at a constituency level there’s almost always a “bigger fish”. Tamworth / Burton possibly being where XC has the highest proportion of overall travellers.
 

JonathanH

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It's odd that no one has. Of course the four "main lines" have received upgrades. But also Anglia, Wales, Northern and Transpennine have all had new rolling stock. Perhaps it's because it's not a regional service so has no one to particularly champion its services.
It is cyclical. CrossCountry had a complete set of new rolling stock in 2002. It had a small increase in capacity in 2008, at which point its service became more structured and stable, and has received more Voyagers latterly, once they were displaced from the West Coast. This isn't what people on this forum want the end state to be but each route seems to take its turn.

The thing that really didn't work in its favour is the rolling over of the Arriva franchise multiple times, without changes.
 

NCT

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That would have sufficed. Instead you went on to write

but it's my opinion that the 222 fleet would be of greater benefit overall to XC.

There's a pattern of English posters opining that Cross Country is more important than ScotRail. This 'England knows best' groupthink is problematic when there's an imovable population imbalance. Across these boards there's an obsession for centrally directed cascades and they invariably follow the pecking order of London main lines -> Cross Country -> Scotland. This is not a sensible way to run a railway.

Devolution and commercialisation are the only things that guard against this type of groupthink.
 

quantinghome

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It is cyclical. CrossCountry had a complete set of new rolling stock in 2002. It had a small increase in capacity in 2008, at which point its service became more structured and stable, and has received more Voyagers latterly. This isn't what people on this forum want the end state to be but each route seems to take its turn.
This is true for the new trains Northern and Wales have received. But some routes have had more turns than others...
Transpennine has had two 'turns' since the Voyagers were introduced, with procurement of a third turn in process - in part due to a messed up previous procurement 9similar to XC)
Anglia had new EMUs in the early 2000s which have since been replaced.

Unlike some I wouldn't advocate for complete fleet replacement on XC. The 22Xs still have 15-20 years life in them and they're actually OK trains if they're not overcrowded. Also there's no obvious routes to cascade them to. But they desperately need a supplementary fleet.
 

Bayum

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It is also a shame that Cross Country 220/221s can't work in multiple with 222s.
Whoever said they needed to work in multiple with 220/1s? The 222s can run in multiple themselves, no?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

There's a pattern of English posters opining that Cross Country is more important than ScotRail. This 'England knows best' groupthink is problematic when there's an imovable population imbalance. Across these boards there's an obsession for centrally directed cascades and they invariably follow the pecking order of London main lines -> Cross Country -> Scotland. This is not a sensible way to run a railway.

Devolution and commercialisation are the only things that guard against this type of groupthink.

The reason I suggested that the 222s be sensibly allocated to XC would have been around the similar design and traction systems so that XC have a somewhat similar fleet between the two types of rolling stock. Admittedly, ScotRail would be needing stock elsewhere but for stock that is going to both support services in Scotland and England, XC would have been my preferred operator.
 

Trainman40083

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Whoever said they needed to work in multiple with 220/1s? The 222s can run in multiple themselves, no?
Given their performance on the Midland mainline at the moment, it may make things worse. But it is irrelevant, as they are destined for ScotRail.
 

35B

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There's a pattern of English posters opining that Cross Country is more important than ScotRail. This 'England knows best' groupthink is problematic when there's an imovable population imbalance. Across these boards there's an obsession for centrally directed cascades and they invariably follow the pecking order of London main lines -> Cross Country -> Scotland. This is not a sensible way to run a railway.

Devolution and commercialisation are the only things that guard against this type of groupthink.
I'd take a different view. The HSTs in Scotland still work, are in lease, and don't have a reputation for overcrowding. If a needs based assessment for capacity change were to be made, then Scotland would not be as urgent as Cross Country. While I'm normally against centrally directed cascades and political interference, this is one place where devolution and commercialisation have led to a below par outcome.

That said, I would personally not regard the 222s as an answer in either case. At their age, and with their known inefficiency, the case for replacing the Voyager/Meridian family with more modern traction that can run without diesel is in my view very strong.
 

NCT

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I'd take a different view. The HSTs in Scotland still work, are in lease, and don't have a reputation for overcrowding. If a needs based assessment for capacity change were to be made, then Scotland would not be as urgent as Cross Country. While I'm normally against centrally directed cascades and political interference, this is one place where devolution and commercialisation have led to a below par outcome.

That said, I would personally not regard the 222s as an answer in either case. At their age, and with their known inefficiency, the case for replacing the Voyager/Meridian family with more modern traction that can run without diesel is in my view very strong.

The other Railforums groupthink is HST romanticisation. The HSTs are unreliable and expensive to operate - they are in acute need of replacement.
 

Trainman40083

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Debatable. They are unreliable and expensive to operate, and are not up to modern standards in terms of collision safety. They need to be scrapped.
And ScotRail probably need twice as many sets just to give them the number they need for service. Staff concerned with crash worthiness etc. Getting parts must be, well challenging for sets that were built up to 50 years ago. Great trains, but life expired.
 

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