It can't, freight can barely get slots as it is.
The optimum setup would surely be to have the Maidenhead run fast from Hayes to Paddington (OOC when it opens) and the Heathrows all-stops. Then there is no loss of connectivity to Heathrow, better journey times for the outer EL services, and still have consistent calling patterns? The GJT would reduce by increasing the service (under your plans).
As an approximate value, a station call costs about 2 minutes journey time in a commuter train. If we assume all trains are stopping Paddington and Hayes & Harlington, and that OOC will have platform capacity for both services to call as well, then you are looking at up to 5 stations being skipped for a maximum of 10 minutes Journey time difference (8 if you keep Ealing Broadway call in for the Underground interchange).
On the GWML the headway is 2 mins if the first train is non-stop and 2.5 if the first trains stops at any intermediate station (generally*). ETCS ins unlikely to bring this down below 2. That means your overtaking trains must make up at least 5 minutes to overtake trains. However, the train in front is likely going to incur and additional 0.5 minutes going into the loop and getting out of the loop (1 min total) against if the platform were just by the side of the running line, due to turnout speeds etc.
So, if we take you're 16tph figure, we're looking for trains to be 3.75mins apart Arriving at Paddington, but the railway currently works in half minutes so the 2nd train will be 3.5mins behind. For the purposes of this example it is not relevant which group goes to which branch
| Station | 1st train (Stops) | 2nd train (Fast) | 3rd train (Stops) | 4th train |
|---|
| Paddington | xx.00 | xx.03½ | xx.07½ | xx.11 |
| Acton ML | xx.06½ | xx/09 | xx.14 | xx/16½ |
| Ealing Broadway | xx.09½ (xx.09a-xx.13½d) | xx/11 (xx/11½) | xx.17 (xx.16½a-xx.21d) | xx/18½ (xx/19) |
| West Ealing | xx.12 (xx.16½) | xx/12 (xx/12½) | xx.19½ (xx.24) | xx/19½ (xx.20) |
| Hanwell | xx.14 (xx.18½) [xx.19a-xx.24½d.] | xx/13 (xx/13½) [xx/14] | xx.21½ (xx.26) [xx.26½a.-xx.32d.] | xx/20½ (xx.21) [xx.21½] |
| Southall | xx.17 (xx.21½) [xx.28] | xx/14 (xx/14½) [xx/15] | xx.24½ (xx.29) [xx.35½] | xx/21½ (xx.22) [xx.22½] |
| Hayes and Harlington | xx.20½ (xx.25) [xx.31½] | xx.16 (xx.16½) [xx.17] | xx.28 (xx.32½) [xx.39] | xx.23½ (xx.24) [xx.24½] |
| Airport Jn | xx/21½ (xx.26) [xx/32½] | xx/17 (xx/17½) [xx/18] | xx/29 (xx.33½) [xx/40] | xx/24½ (xx.25) [xx.25½] |
Bold areas indicate where trains are overtaking. Note the following:
- 6-tracking dynamic loop would need to begin at Acton ML and run to Southall.
- Putting in a static loop at Ealing Broadway (Times in Parentheses) adds ½ a minute in to the fast train, and delays the slow train sufficiently that it would need to be overtaken again
- Adding in the 2nd loop at Hanwell (times in Square Brackets) delays the fast trains by an additional ½ minute, and note that the Stopping train 7.5 mins ahead of the 1st train would need to loop at Southall, or the fast trains be held back by 2.5 mins (missing the immediate interchange, BTW).
I believe
@The Planner says the going rate for this analysis is north of £100/hr, so I'll be sure to send you my invoice at a competitive rate
CAVEAT: All of this is done on the back of an envelope, so a proper exercise with access to a proper planning system would be required to verify the conclusions. You might need a loop moving to a different station, or potentially only need 2 rather than 3 loops, etc...
* - before the pedants come in, yes the headways are *very* particular on this section.