Likelihood of heat issues on ECML

Have a rather important Leed to London journey on Tuesday morning. I'm just wondering with the heatwave on the way whether there's a high risk of significant delay or cancellation due to rail temperatures.

I think NR impose speed limits above a certain temperature? Is that right?

I'm guessing that might be likely later in the day.

Does the amber heatwave warning trigger any preemptive action?

Just thinking it may be better to drive part way on Monday and then drive in on Tuesday morning.

Pretty likely on several routes based on the forecast.

LNER already have a "hot weather" notice on their Travel Alerts page

To answer the questions :

trebor79 said:

I think NR impose speed limits above a certain temperature? Is that right?

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Kind of right. Speed restricitions for heat are usually only imposed in two circumstances :

1) for specific stretches of track where there is an increased risk of track buckles due to the condition and/or status of the track. These restrictions can be any distance, but typically less than a mile. They will be imposed when the rail temperature reaches a certain level (that level will vary site to site due to the specific circumstance at that site), and occasionally may be imposed ahead of the time thst rail tempersture is reached on the solid expectation that it will be reached. The hotter the air temperature, the more sites will be affected.

2) for specific issues with certain types of (older) OLE equipment. Such restrctions are rare, and require very high air temps, but they can happen. These are usually imposed over much longer distances.


Sometimes, in very hot conditions, there can be a large number of speed restrictions, and therefore a ‘blanket’ speed is imposed over a wide area to reduce the number of restrictions being imposed / removed, as this then helps avoid confusion for drivers, and also reduces the number of people needed to put out and remove warning equipment, and the disruption that causes.

trebor79 said:

I'm guessing that might be likely later in the day.

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Yes, more usually afternoon.

trebor79 said:

Does the amber heatwave warning trigger any preemptive action?

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Yes, there have been (and will continue to be) specially arranged meetings / calls to co-ordinate additional response, control arrangements, communications channels, etc. These will consider all the places where there is potential for speed restrictions on a site by site basis, and also any intel on additional or unusual passenger demand on the days concerned.

Thanks @Bald Rick for that comprehensive reply.
I think I'll see what occurs on Monday and make final decision Monday evening.

I should have said, but forgot that disruption on hot days is more often a result of failures of infrastructure, rolling stock, and people than speed restrictions. For example, in very round numbers, on a day with air temps higher than 32C, the number of infrastructure failures roughly doubles compared to the failures on a day in the range 1C - 24C. And these failures are concentrated in the hottest part of the day, ie 1300-1700.

LNER often don't use MK4 sets when it's very hot. It soon gets extremely uncomfortable for passengers should air con be lost. Azumas have two pantographs and a back up power unit, so are deemed less of a risk.

Is the 0737 ex Bradford 91 or Azuma? The timetable doesn't seem to distinguish.
I see they are saying that if booked to travel on Tuesday, you can go on Monday instead. I may do that, but then I'd only be able to go in the afternoon/evening and that might just land me in the middle of chaos!

What a pickle!

Interesting decision that they've relaxed ticket restrictions each day+ offering to travel Monday/Friday

Hopefully a positive, though with taking on all the extra EMR passengers too, could lead to some very crowded services

Given the 37 to 40 degrees forecast over a wide area of the south east I'd expect significant disruption on the ECML especially given the vulnerability of the OHLE design used.

Class 317 said:

Given the 37 to 40 degrees forecast over a wide area of the south east I'd expect significant disruption on the ECML especially given the vulnerability of the OHLE design used.

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If the heat is high during the evening peak periods, I can see speed restrictions forcing a reduction in trains so expect some planned cancellations to try and keep a service running. If they don't cut trains, there's a high risk of delays that leads to trains out of position and drivers out of hours which will then be a nightmare.