Strathclyder
Established Member
The chances of any 458s coming north for a reforming and/or expansion of the 334 fleet is as good as nil, especially now. If any currently out of use stock is going to come up and supplement the ScR Mk3 EMU fleet if the need were dire enough, it would be the 350/2s, since all the remaining 321s not scooped up by Varamis that could've been 320/4-ed have long since gone to the scrappers, they're all that's left that's even remotely suitable in such a scenario.
What helps here is that, despite their advancing age and as has already been pointed out, they've seen regular overhauls/refurbs over the years - and thus are in pretty good nick. Perfectly acceptable for the rest of the decade, though I would expect to finally see some more progress on getting their permanent replacements ordered within the next year or two (after all the 222s have entered service I suspect, to give a sense of the timescales I'm thinking of); at the very least a tender list of potential manufacturers being issued.
The most likely outcome here though is the 318s/320s seeing out the 2020s, with the 318s handily surpassing the 303s service record (42 years); at the current rate it's very likely they'll end up racking up more years in service overall than the Met-Cam Subway stock did (44 years). They'll hit the 40 year mark this September coming while both 320 variants will hit their 36-37th birthdays this year. Both are the sole standard-bearers of the Mk3-based EMU family in regular passenger service and the 318s may very well end up racking up the most years in service out of any of them (or come pretty close to doing so).
What helps here is that, despite their advancing age and as has already been pointed out, they've seen regular overhauls/refurbs over the years - and thus are in pretty good nick. Perfectly acceptable for the rest of the decade, though I would expect to finally see some more progress on getting their permanent replacements ordered within the next year or two (after all the 222s have entered service I suspect, to give a sense of the timescales I'm thinking of); at the very least a tender list of potential manufacturers being issued.
The most likely outcome here though is the 318s/320s seeing out the 2020s, with the 318s handily surpassing the 303s service record (42 years); at the current rate it's very likely they'll end up racking up more years in service overall than the Met-Cam Subway stock did (44 years). They'll hit the 40 year mark this September coming while both 320 variants will hit their 36-37th birthdays this year. Both are the sole standard-bearers of the Mk3-based EMU family in regular passenger service and the 318s may very well end up racking up the most years in service out of any of them (or come pretty close to doing so).
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