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Opinions/suggestions for changes to Great Northern or Thameslink and linked services.

Farigiraf

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That said, I agree that Welwyn Sevenoaks should go all-day; and if it does then I can see no justification for retaining the Alexandra Palace calls on the Cambridge service.

mods note - split from this thread

FYI only morning peak Welwyn-Sevenoaks trains call at Alexandra Palace at the moment. If it were to become an all-day service though, it definitely makes sense to stop all of them there.

If 4tph Welwyn-Moorgate isn't coming back then it's definitely worth having a look at whether Welham Green, Hadley Wood and Brookmans Park justify TL calls too. While the answer is likely to still be no, they did have a more frequent service pre-COVID and the lack of frequency may be a major contributor to the low usage. They don't serve huge settlements and housing density round the station is fairly low, but they're still not small villages. Turn-up-and-go frequencies (half of them through the TL core) and a sizeable car park would increase usage significantly.
 
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rmHawk765

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If 4tph Welwyn-Moorgate isn't coming back then it's definitely worth having a look at whether Welham Green, Hadley Wood and Brookmans Park justify TL calls too. While the answer is likely to still be no, they did have a more frequent service pre-COVID and the lack of frequency may be a major contributor to the low usage. They don't serve huge settlements and housing density round the station is fairly low, but they're still not small villages. Turn-up-and-go frequencies (half of them through the TL core) and a sizeable car park would increase usage significantly.
I have looked at this before and see no clear reason why the Sevenoaks trains cannot call at these stations pathing wise. From New Barnet it is 10 minutes to the next Cambridge/Letchworth stopper in the Down direction - that's plenty of time to stop at the three stations. As you say, a low frequency is precisely what results in low usage. Not the other way round.
 

London Trains

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I have looked at this before and see no clear reason why the Sevenoaks trains cannot call at these stations pathing wise. From New Barnet it is 10 minutes to the next Cambridge/Letchworth stopper in the Down direction - that's plenty of time to stop at the three stations. As you say, a low frequency is precisely what results in low usage. Not the other way round.
I do agree with you that it would be a good idea for it to serve all stops if possible, but would the service have enough turnaround time at Welwyn if it served all stops in both directions?
 

bramling

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I do agree with you that it would be a good idea for it to serve all stops if possible, but would the service have enough turnaround time at Welwyn if it served all stops in both directions?

If it does go all-day they will have to ensure the turnround time is robust.

I get the point about turn up and go, however stopping at these smaller stations lengthens journey time for others. Hatfield has ten times the usage of Brookmans Park / Welham Green. As local stations for local people 2tph is quite adequate as people will just memorise the times and work round it.
 

Farigiraf

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I get the point about turn up and go, however stopping at these smaller stations lengthens journey time for others.
From WGC to Finsbury park, GN stoppers take 32 minutes, while Thameslink (skipping Ally Pally) takes 26 minutes.
If a TL service did all stops from Welwyn to Finsbury except Hornsey and Harringay, it would be closer to 30 minutes.
So that's 4 extra minutes in order to serve 4 extra stations. Seems fair to me!

From Hatfield/Potters Bar, frequency is a lot more important than speed, as there isn't a huge time difference between the fast and stopping trains. For highly time-sensitive travellers, there is still a half-hourly semifast to KGX.

As local stations for local people 2tph is quite adequate as people will just memorise the times and work round it.
Or they just drive - the most flexible option. 4tph attracts far more people taking public transport by choice (rather than because they don't have a car) than 2tph.
 

rmHawk765

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So that's 4 extra minutes in order to serve 4 extra stations. Seems fair to me!
The Sevenoaks service is already painfully slow as is on both SE and GN land thanks to its intricate routing - so it might as well just stop everywhere en route.
 

SE%Traveller

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From WGC to Finsbury park, GN stoppers take 32 minutes, while Thameslink (skipping Ally Pally) takes 26 minutes.
If a TL service did all stops from Welwyn to Finsbury except Hornsey and Harringay, it would be closer to 30 minutes.
So that's 4 extra minutes in order to serve 4 extra stations. Seems fair to me!

This would, in effect, make it identical to the '2K' Welwyn Moorgate services which skip H&H anyway, would the expectation be that The additional stops go into the off peak only? and the pattern remains semi-fast in the peaks? otherwise they'll leave Welwyn at the same time* and arrive FPK at same time too!.

if the Thameslink picks up the 2K pattern off Peak then assuming 5 mins added to run-time the turn around time at Welwyn would drop from 18 to 8 (57-49) which seems a little tight. They have a generous 27 min layover at Sevenoaks!

*well scheduled to at least
 

NCT

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The main 'loser' of Thameslink has been Welwyn, whose hitherto fast services got bumped to the slow lines to make way for the 4tph fast to Stevenage. It's reasonable for Welwyn (and Potters Bar) to have 4tph 'as fast as possible' services, and 2tph is a reasonable service level for villages like Welham Green.
 

Farigiraf

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It's reasonable for Welwyn (and Potters Bar) to have 4tph 'as fast as possible' services, and 2tph is a reasonable service level for villages like Welham Green.
That's hardly fair though. Giving Hatfield, Welwyn and Potters Bar a frequent fast service involves:
- Preventing the other local stations from getting a decent service
- Preventing ECML stations north of Welwyn which rely on the fast lines from getting a decent service
- Reducing reliability, as any delay on the fast lines generally impacts the WGC-Hitchin bottleneck which therefore impacts the slow lines
Whereas giving the local stops 4tph involves:
- 5-10 minutes to the journey times from the major stops.

Is it really worth the 5-10 minutes?
 

NCT

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That's hardly fair though. Giving Hatfield, Welwyn and Potters Bar a frequent fast service involves:
- Preventing the other local stations from getting a decent service
- Preventing ECML stations north of Welwyn which rely on the fast lines from getting a decent service
- Reducing reliability, as any delay on the fast lines generally impacts the WGC-Hitchin bottleneck which therefore impacts the slow lines
Whereas giving the local stops 4tph involves:
- 5-10 minutes to the journey times from the major stops.

Is it really worth the 5-10 minutes?

The bolded part has lost me. Surely running the slow Cambridges 'as fast as possible' benefits Welwyn North and Knebworth?
 

Farigiraf

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The bolded part has lost me. Surely running the slow Cambridges 'as fast as possible' benefits Welwyn North and Knebworth?
You state the following:
The main 'loser' of Thameslink has been Welwyn, whose hitherto fast services got bumped to the slow lines to make way for the 4tph fast to Stevenage.
Which implies that there's not too much space on the fast lines anymore after Thamesink starting running to PBO and CBG. I concur. The Dec 25 timetable adding more LNER services can't have halped either.
Both these routes are well-used, reducing their frequency or adding extra stops would really hinder their usefulness.

Regardless, if you're thinking of adding more trains to the fast lines, WGC shouldn't necessarily be the priority based on current capacity limitations. 4tph on the slow lines is really not bad as it's not that much slower than the fastest service. Numerous other lines which would also appreciate frequency uplifts if the capacity allowed (e.g. the Peterborough locals, the Fen line, plus all the intercity routes) and these places aren't lucky enough to have a slow line that doesn't take ages to get to London.
 

NCT

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You state the following:

Which implies that there's not too much space on the fast lines anymore after Thamesink starting running to PBO and CBG. I concur. The Dec 25 timetable adding more LNER services can't have halped either.
Both these routes are well-used, reducing their frequency or adding extra stops would really hinder their usefulness.

Regardless, if you're thinking of adding more trains to the fast lines, WGC shouldn't necessarily be the priority based on current capacity limitations. 4tph on the slow lines is really not bad as it's not that much slower than the fastest service. Numerous other lines which would also appreciate frequency uplifts if the capacity allowed (e.g. the Peterborough locals, the Fen line, plus all the intercity routes) and these places aren't lucky enough to have a slow line that doesn't take ages to get to London.

I said running the Welwyn and slow Cambridge 'as fast as possible', not 'on the Fast Lines'.
 

Farigiraf

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I said running the Welwyn and slow Cambridge 'as fast as possible', not 'on the Fast Lines'.
In that case, I refer back to post #72.
It's less than a 5 minute difference between the fastest and slowest train on the slow lines. Trains running 5 minutes faster to Welwyn and Potters Bar won't increase usage much but trains running 5 minutes slower to stop at Brookmans Park, Hadley Wood and Welham Green would increase usage at these stations significantly.
 

rmHawk765

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Which implies that there's not too much space on the fast lines anymore after Thamesink starting running to PBO and CBG. I concur.
With ETCS there will be plenty of space on the running lines themselves. They're currently at 12tph in the peaks, this will be able to go a lot higher. The issue is terminating capacity.

The idea of Thameslink was partially to do with the fact that this problem was predicted ages ago - but as we've learned, we can't send trains from everywhere to everywhere. And intercity services simply can't go cross-city for many reasons, so eventually a massive upgrade to King's Cross is going to be needed. We literally cannot add any trains to the ECML going to London - King's Cross is full, Thameslink is full, and Moorgate can only take 717s and also can only feasibly see an increase in max frequency by 4tph.
 

brad465

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The idea of Thameslink was partially to do with the fact that this problem was predicted ages ago - but as we've learned, we can't send trains from everywhere to everywhere. And intercity services simply can't go cross-city for many reasons, so eventually a massive upgrade to King's Cross is going to be needed. We literally cannot add any trains to the ECML going to London - King's Cross is full, Thameslink is full, and Moorgate can only take 717s and also can only feasibly see an increase in max frequency by 4tph.
Kings X has just had a major upgrade. A lot of the intercity capacity issues into KGX were supposed to be solved by HS2 in its full form, but no explanation needed as to why that's effectively in the bin.
 

Trainman40083

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Kings X has just had a major upgrade. A lot of the intercity capacity issues into KGX were supposed to be solved by HS2 in its full form, but no explanation needed as to why that's effectively in the bin.
Indeed, the Eastern leg of HS2 would have added capacity for East Coast Mainline and Midland Mainline destinations, in the North.
 

NCT

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In that case, I refer back to post #72.
It's less than a 5 minute difference between the fastest and slowest train on the slow lines. Trains running 5 minutes faster to Welwyn and Potters Bar won't increase usage much but trains running 5 minutes slower to stop at Brookmans Park, Hadley Wood and Welham Green would increase usage at these stations significantly.

Welwyn journey times are already extended vs pre Thameslink. Extending them even more isn't acceptable. Welwyn gets a raw deal compared with St Albans next door.

Brookmans Park, Hadley Wood and Welham Green are non places.
 

cle

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I think Crossrail has shown that a 6-8tph all stations service from Welwyn would out-perform a 2tph semi fast one. It should be metro only - 6tph to Moorgate with 6tph to Hertford North too, 2 to Stevenage. Easy. 1-2tph extra in peaks, maybe an outer or TL call.... but maybe not... Rip up your timetables.

And once the grumbles are done, this would be no different in uptake.

Brookmans Park, Hadley Wood and Welham Green are non places.
These could all do with a level of development then. Plenty of land there.
 

JonathanH

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I think Crossrail has shown that a 6-8tph all stations service from Welwyn would out-perform a 2tph semi fast one. It should be metro only - 6tph to Moorgate with 6tph to Hertford North too, 2 to Stevenage. Easy. 1-2tph extra in peaks, maybe an outer or TL call.... but maybe not... Rip up your timetables.
The population density on the Crossrail route is somewhat different from the Welwyn route. People still prefer a fast train where there is one - witness people travelling from Brentwood via Shenfield and waiting for the Greater Anglia off-peak services from Romford.
 

PGAT

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I think Crossrail has shown that a 6-8tph all stations service from Welwyn would out-perform a 2tph semi fast one. It should be metro only - 6tph to Moorgate with 6tph to Hertford North too, 2 to Stevenage. Easy. 1-2tph extra in peaks, maybe an outer or TL call.... but maybe not... Rip up your timetables.

And once the grumbles are done, this would be no different in uptake.
That’s not what XR has shown though? The likes of Romford, Slough and Maidenhead still have their expresses at lower frequencies and they are still very well used.
 

rmHawk765

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with 6tph to Hertford North too
This is the service already at peak and it's not enough in terms of crowding. The 717s were intended to run a 10tph service to Gordon Hill which still hasn't been achieved. As you say, it's incredibly obvious what needs to be done on the Hertford side of things. For Welwyn it's more complicated.
A lot of the intercity capacity issues into KGX were supposed to be solved by HS2 in its full form, but no explanation needed as to why that's effectively in the bin.
I don't really understand this reasoning. The ECML IC services also function as regional 'hybrids' and you cannot just decrease the service level because HS2 exists to benefit London and the opposite half of the country (and only Brum as you say)...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Welwyn journey times are already extended vs pre Thameslink. Extending them even more isn't acceptable. Welwyn gets a raw deal compared with St Albans next door.
Welwyn, and the entire ECML South at that, seem to basically be forgotten compared the extremely frequent Thameslink service on the MML. In fact the entire scheme of bringing TL to the ECML has overall not been successful in my book. Major bottlenecks were not fixed and the allocation is just ridiculous, it's 14tph vs 6tph. It seems like an afterthought at times.
 
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brad465

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I don't really understand this reasoning. The ECML IC services also function as regional 'hybrids' and you cannot just decrease the service level because HS2 exists to benefit London and the opposite half of the country (and only Brum as you say)...
In the latest passenger data, Edinburgh (1.099m), York (900k) and Newcastle (793k) are in the top 5 flows from Kings Cross and are all pretty massive. HS2 would have taken over the bulk of all this and allowed more "regional hybrid" services to run (I'm guessing some of them would have continued to Newcastle/Edinburgh but on a higher calling pattern).
 

NCT

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I think Crossrail has shown that a 6-8tph all stations service from Welwyn would out-perform a 2tph semi fast one. It should be metro only - 6tph to Moorgate with 6tph to Hertford North too, 2 to Stevenage. Easy. 1-2tph extra in peaks, maybe an outer or TL call.... but maybe not... Rip up your timetables.

And once the grumbles are done, this would be no different in uptake.

This is like proposing St Albans only getting its slow service. It's a non starter.

These could all do with a level of development then. Plenty of land there.

This would not be appropriate. Better to concentrate development in the big towns - plenty of big box sites.
 

Farigiraf

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That’s not what XR has shown though? The likes of Romford, Slough and Maidenhead still have their expresses at lower frequencies and they are still very well used.
Romford, Slough and Maidenhead are good parallels:

Both have a frequent stopping service to London, and a half-hourly semifast.
Welwyn Garden City, Hatfield and Potters Bar also have a half-hourly semifast service, provided by the stoppers from Letchworth/Cambridge. Nobody is proposing to get rid of these, and that's what I think is being misunderstood here.
The question is whether a second slower train service, one that'll either way have to call additionally at New Barnet, Oakleigh Park, New Southgate and Alexandra Palace, should also stop at the 3 quieter stations on the ECML south. Doing so would not impact the journey times of the faster service, which is still there if you value arriving 15 minutes earlier into London.

This is like proposing St Albans only getting its slow service. It's a non starter.
It's not, as stated above, although admittedly St Albans' 4tph from Bedford is double the frequency of the semifasts from WGC to London. That's just down to the fact that the WGC semifasts have to terminate in King's Cross, unlike all trains from St Albans, which can use the Thameslink core. The TL core has limited capacity - it can handle both fasts and slows from either the MML or ECML, but not both. TL have prioritised the MML, as King's Cross still has more capacity than St Pancras high level. As a result, any Thameslink trains towards the ECML are secondary to the more important MML services, which is why St Albans seems to get a significantly better deal than WGC.
 

JonathanH

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As a result, any Thameslink trains towards the ECML are secondary to the more important MML services, which is why St Albans seems to get a significantly better deal than WGC.
Historically there is simply more demand at St Albans than Welwyn Garden City.

Also, I am not sure how you get a train on and off the platform lines at Welwyn Garden City. In the pattern of trains across Welwyn viaduct, such a train has to have a path through there, then slot back into a different path after the station stop,
 

bramling

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Speaking of, I find it funny there are faster trains to Welwyn North than Welwyn GC at peak...

This is a quirk of history and circumstance, rather than a deliberate policy decision.

Back in the 90s, the service consisted of 2tph KX-Cambridge, most of which were fast to/from Welwyn GC. This was supplemented by 2tph KX-Letchworth, which called at places like New Southgate, Oakleigh Park, New Barnet, Potters Bar, Hatfield then all stations to Letchworth (the exact calling pattern varied slightly). Note that some of the latter services were booked for class 313s.

The Capacity Increase Study resulted in the “Seats for you” timetable brought in by FCC. This essentially split the Letchworth service in two. By terminating the Letchworth service at Welwyn GC, it allowed the Letchworth path to be reused for an extra 2tph outer-suburban service to Royston, providing desperately needed extra capacity at places like Hitchin, Letchworth, Baldock etc etc.

In order for Knebworth and Welwyn North to maintain their frequency, they got calls on the outer-suburban service, though in most cases each service called at only one. My memory is a bit faded but I think Knebworth may have got some calls in Peterborough services to make up the balance. With Knebworth and Welwyn North gaining faster services, this in turn created some space on the Cambridge stopping services, which gradually gained calls at Hatfield, and IIRC eventually Potters Bar in some cases as well (note Hatfield’s usage exploded during all this time).

As you say, Welwyn Garden City lost out on fast services, but did gain 2tph to/from KX, often formed of 8-car trains, and many were class 365 as well. So what Welwyn lost in terms of fast services they gained in terms of capacity, having peak services starting there was really popular.

This remained the situation until 2018 give or take some tweaks here and there. Under the Thameslink service the Welwyn starters are effectively like-for-like replaced with the Sevenoaks services, the Cambridge stopping service remains as is but all services now stop at Hatfield and Potters Bar (and latterly Alexandra Palace). The Royston services initially became the Baldocks, disappeared for a bit, returned in more limited form as Letchworth services, and then we have gone full circle back to a Letchworth short service and a faster Cambridge service but this time avoiding Welwyn Garden City.

Honestly … 4tph for Welwyn Garden City isn’t a bad service, 2 of them starting there so people can have pick of the seats. The two things that need to happen are the Alexandra Palace and New Barnet calls ditched, and make the whole thing work reliably so services don’t get stuck behind Moorgate services.

There’s a separate argument to question whether Knebworth and Welwyn North really justify 4tph. But if one concluded they didn’t, this would just mean the existing services run through non-stop. They’re not going to serve Welwyn Garden City as it’s too difficult to path.

Worth mentioning also that Welwyn Garden City’s fast services to Finsbury Park were I think more an attempt at managing capacity than to provide a fast service. The journey time was pretty much same as services calling at Hatfield and Potters Bar. Even back in the 90s the morning peak services would leave Welwyn Garden City with all seats taken and people standing, so there really was no point in calling at Hatfield or Potters Bar. The reason for a lot of this was insufficient capacity further north, so you’d get people from places like Hitchin boarding the stopping services as it was their only prospect of getting a seat. The introduction of the Royston services greatly eased this, although didn’t entirely eliminate it.
 
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clockend

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The last ETUG meeting reported that while Hertford loop will see improvements…

Welwyn Garden City Line Status: No significant service changes are planned for the London to Welwyn Garden City local stopping services for this coming December (2026).
 

Mgameing123

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mods note - split from this thread

FYI only morning peak Welwyn-Sevenoaks trains call at Alexandra Palace at the moment. If it were to become an all-day service though, it definitely makes sense to stop all of them there.

If 4tph Welwyn-Moorgate isn't coming back then it's definitely worth having a look at whether Welham Green, Hadley Wood and Brookmans Park justify TL calls too. While the answer is likely to still be no, they did have a more frequent service pre-COVID and the lack of frequency may be a major contributor to the low usage. They don't serve huge settlements and housing density round the station is fairly low, but they're still not small villages. Turn-up-and-go frequencies (half of them through the TL core) and a sizeable car park would increase usage significantly.
Scrap the Gatwick Express please. Use those paths to strengthen Southern services.
 

cle

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Historically there is simply more demand at St Albans than Welwyn Garden City.

Also, I am not sure how you get a train on and off the platform lines at Welwyn Garden City. In the pattern of trains across Welwyn viaduct, such a train has to have a path through there, then slot back into a different path after the station stop,
Thank you. St Albans blows all of these places out of the water in usage terms.

And I should have been clearer - I referred to Potters Bar and Hatfield earlier but it became about Welwyn. As the final local stop / terminus, WGC should have outer calls.

Potters Bar especially seems more of a Slough. Which yes has fasts (arguably doesn’t need them - just more Crossrail) - but the benefits just aren’t there with a service which infiltrates the core / negates the tube ride and has exploded in usage. And certainly no-one at Hayes is missing their fast to Paddington. OOC will make this change more pronounced.

This would not be appropriate. Better to concentrate development in the big towns - plenty of big box sites.

I don’t mean another Canary Wharf, but mid rise apartment buildings (3-6 floors) - TOD with light commercial, should be acceptable around all Home Counties rail linked places. The infrastructure is there and should be used to expand the real Greater London.
 

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