DB to buy Grand Central

[ainsworth74]

The good thing is that when East Coast franchise is let Arriva can't get it because of competitions issues! Hopefully!!

What's your evidence for this? Can you cite any instances where a company has been disqualified from bidding due to competition issues?

 

[WatcherZero]

Maybe their after the brand, most valuable part of the company as far as I can see.

 

[DaveNewcastle]

A takeover can be a stressful time for those working in any Company in that situation. One thing is certain, the staff whose efforts have brought the Company to the point where it is worth buying should feel very pleased with their work and that it has been appreciated and valued.
While the future may be uncertain, the staff's role in getting there will not be unappreciated.

Asset stripping, which you could insinuate DB has done with WSMR,
. . .
It is sometimes in the business' best interest not to have competition but rather full market capture

I'm not sure that the realisable assets of GC merit the agreed purchase price, whereas the operational value does seem to include revenue-earning assets (and yes, I'm including personnel).

In general, your analysis is realistic, but in the case of GC, I'm not persuaded. Do you have figures which show greater value of realisable assets over price?

What's this going to mean for rolling stock? Will we see the end of HSTs? Will we see 67s on push pulls?

Where do those proposals come from? I can't see the connection (nor what its significance is to today's news). Can you clarify?

The good thing is that when East Coast franchise is let Arriva can't get it because of competitions issues! Hopefully!!

I must agree that it is interesting to compare the development opportunities of a company which operates both franchises and an open access licence on similar routes, but I fail to see what "competition issues" bar DB/Arriva from bidding. What would they be?

Can you cite any instances where a company has been disqualified from bidding due to competition issues?

I'm as interested as you. I hope we have this clarified shortly.

 

[seventh-heaven]

One day the good people of Shropshire will realise that W&S was closed to provide Chiltern with rolling stock and that a service from to London could and would have been more profitable than the GC Sunderland service!

 

[Eagle]

One day the good people of Shropshire will realise that W&S was closed to provide Chiltern with rolling stock and that a service from to London could and would have been more profitable than the GC Sunderland service!

No. It was closed because it was losing money. A lot of money.

Three times in the last 25 years has there been an attempt to provide Shrewsbury with a direct London service. Three times has it been an economic failure. The experimental evidence suggests there's just no demand.

 

[seventh-heaven]

No. It was closed because it was losing money. A lot of money.

Three times in the last 25 years has there been an attempt to provide Shrewsbury with a direct London service. Three times has it been an economic failure. The experimental evidence suggests there's just no demand.

Really! You know that how - oh yes from the media releases and what DB said when they closed it!

Always good to know the facts before you make such categoric statements!

 

[IanPooleTrains]

No. It was closed because it was losing money. A lot of money.

IIRC, didn't WSMR expect that they were going to turn a profit the nexy year though?

Anyway, this is indeed a dark day for me because now Arriva is flexing their muscles and they have got their hands on Grand Central.

I am a mark for Grand Central, I have always been a lover of their fleet (no jokes please!) but this is a dark day.

Arriva/Cross Country/Chiltern, whatever you want to call them, have to have some sort of hidden agenda here because if GC was losing money, why buy a company that is doing that?

The problem with GC though isn't with their Wearside (if Sunderland is in that area) trains, it is with their Yorkshire trains because they are the main focal point of the money loss for whatever reason imaginable (possibly lack of passengers)

There was part of me that hoped this was an early April Fools joke but, it is indeed a dark day for GC

 

[Eagle]

Really! You know that how - oh yes from the media releases and what DB said when they closed it!

Always good to know the facts before you make such categoric statements!

There's no need to be so cynical... :roll: Where are you getting your assertions from, may I ask? Idle speculation? Conspiracy theories?

 

[seventh-heaven]

Lets just say I have a better understanding of the W&S business case than most!

 

[Eagle]

Lets just say I have a better understanding of the W&S business case than most!

Care to elaborate?

 

[IanPooleTrains]

Care to elaborate?

I was just about to say that

 

[seventh-heaven]

Sadly can't - however tempting it is given the news today. Just a bit fed up with those that think they know, making statements that are wrong. I'll climb back into my box now.

 

[Eagle]

Sadly can't - however tempting it is given the news today. Just a bit fed up with those that think they know making statements that are wrong. I'll climb back into my box now.

Why? Do you work for Arriva Rail/DB Regio?

If you're not going to tell us your sources you can't complain that people don't believe you.

If you're bound by some kind of confidentiality agreement there was no reason for you to say anything at all. Obviously we'd want to query it further.

 

[IanPooleTrains]

Why? Do you work for Arriva Rail/DB Regio?

If you're not going to tell us your sources you can't complain that people don't believe you.

And I should know al about that

 

[seventh-heaven]

Why? Do you work for Arriva Rail/DB Regio?

If you're not going to tell us your sources you can't complain that people don't believe you.

If you're bound by some kind of confidentiality agreement there was no reason for you to say anything at all. Obviously we'd want to query it further.

I didn't complain that people didn't believe me. I complained because you made a factual statement without the facts to back it up.

 

[Eagle]

I didn't complain that people didn't believe me. I complained because you made a factual statement without the facts to back it up.

As did you...

My source is the press releases, and documents provided by the DfT. Not having access to DB Regio's confidential accounts I'm assuming these are all in good faith. I see no reason why they would want to lie to the DfT.

What's yours?

 

[90019]

I complained because you made a factual statement without the facts to back it up.

It's between Manganesey and Cobalty.

 

[Eagle]

Wrexham & Shropshire launched in April 2008, restoring direct train services between Wrexham, Shropshire and London. The company quickly developed a reputation for excellence in customer service, which was rewarded in autumn 2010 with a 99% customer satisfaction score in the benchmark National Passenger Survey. Despite strong growth in passenger numbers, the business has not been able to generate sufficient revenues to cover more than 65% of the cost of operating the service and in 2010 alone suffered losses of £2.9 million.

See, look? I found some numbers (at least that's something presented as facts).

If this is wrong, as you say, then DB Regio were falsifying their accounts, and that's a fairly serious allegation.



You appear to be implying that you are privy to some confidential information that implicates DB in fraudulent behaviour. If so, I urge you to be a whistleblower and release it anonymously into the public domain. #tonguefirmlyincheek

 

[seventh-heaven]

As did you...

My source is the press releases, and documents provided by the DfT. Not having access to DB Regio's confidential accounts I'm assuming these are all in good faith. I see no reason why they would want to lie to the DfT.

What's yours?

Wrexham & Shropshire's accounts are available on Companies House website - so not particularly confidential. It had nothing to do with DfT so DB wouldn't have had to lie to them and I doubt you have seen any documents from DfT that have any detail about W&S as they had no reason to have any infomation other than that freely available on the web.

It is fairly well known from other media sources that W&S made smaller losses in every year of existence than GC have made in any year of their existence. It is similarly well known that W&S would have been profitable within 1 to 2 years of closing. However DB's business based decision was to close and not to try and recoup the losses. The excellent rolling stock immediately gets use on the Chiltern services and they have now launched a new service based on the ex-W&S rolling stock.

GC's backers on the other hand took a longer term view and decided it was worth continuing making losses because of the long term value of the business. Just somewhat odd that DB appear to have taken the opposite view in this case - unless W&S was closed so Chiltern could have the stock......

 

[Eagle]

Oh good, I get to do a pickapart post... :P

Wrexham & Shropshire's accounts are available on Companies House website - so not particularly confidential.

I am aware of this. Unfortunately they are not freely available.

I doubt you have seen any documents from DfT that have any detail about W&S as they had no reason to have any infomation other than that freely available on the web.

I have actually seen some of the DfT's public documents, as it happens. All of them back up the loss that WSMR publicly reported. If this figure is false, then the company has been lying, which is a criminal offence.

It is fairly well known from other media sources that W&S made smaller losses in every year of existence than GC have made in any year of their existence.

I agree. According to official sources this is true.

It is similarly well known that W&S would have been profitable within 1 to 2 years of closing.

No it isn't well known. That's a forecast, not fact; moreover it contradicts the official version of events.

However DB's business based decision was to close and not to try and recoup the losses.

I agree that this was DB's intention. To close a loss-making service.

The excellent rolling stock immediately gets use on the Chiltern services and they have now launched a new service based on the ex-W&S rolling stock.

Can you blame DB for trying to get maximum usage out of stock that'd've been sitting idle otherwise? Suggesting that this was the sole reason DB closed WSMR is somewhat disingenuous, as you've already admitted that DB wanted to close their service because it was loss-making.

GC's backers on the other hand took a longer term view and decided it was worth continuing making losses because of the long term value of the business. Just somewhat odd that DB appear to have taken the opposite view in this case

No it isn't odd. Different companies have different attitudes to risk. As you said yourself, it was a business-based decision.

- unless W&S was closed so Chiltern could have the stock...

From the conspiracy-theory-like tone of this I'm going to infer that you haven't got any facts, just a "logical" deduction.

I'll ask you again: are you privy to some information that contradicts the official view? You don't have to tell us what it is, just a simple yes or no will suffice.

 

[tbtc]

the business has not been able to generate sufficient revenues to cover more than 65% of the cost of operating the service

There's conspiracy theories, and then there's making a loss of a third on your service. I think its fairly obvious why the Wrexham service was terminated (and its not going to justify an episode of the X-Files...).

As for GC and DB... why buy them? The 180s can't work on XC services (due to clearance problems at Birmingham New Street), there are no assets, the best of the staff could easily be poached for under £20m...

 

[Lampshade]

It was obvious WSMR was unprofitable when they cut it from 5tpd to 3tpd.

 

[Eagle]

The 180s can't work on XC services (due to clearance problems at Birmingham New Street)

Also because they're hella less reliable than Voyagers.

(To be fair, GC's HSTs are potentially poachable...)

 

[seventh-heaven]

Generally I think that people consider "freely available" to mean available to the general public by simple means rather then actually free as in no cost. It is not as if a 12 year old could not afford them from their weekly pocket money!

As you point out anything DfT has said is merely repeating what is in the public domain - but as I said, what have DfT had to say anyway as they had no locus in the companies activites nor the decision to close.

Who said that the loss figures were false? Not me.

The profitable within 1 to 2 years was a forecast correct, but I challenge you to find anything official that said anything else.

To suggest that DB closed W&S for the rolling stock was not disengenuous - and I did not admit that DB wanted to close the company because it was loss making, I stated that the decision was to not try and recoup the losses which is different and went on to imply that they made that decision so that they could use the stock on Chiltern.

No it isn't odd. Different companies have different attitudes to risk. As you said yourself, it was a business-based decision.

If you actually read what I wrote you would see that I was actually saying that it was odd that DB took a different stance in the two positions - unless of course the stance was different because of wanting the stock for Chiltern.

All of the above could be described as logical deduction - you will have to take my word that I have the facts to back it up. If you don't want to that is your entitlement. Those who know me will know!

 

[91101]

Rearrange these words At,Straws,Clutching !!!

Sorry BOSCH, but this has to be done :


Rearrange these words: Pie, Eat, Humble.

 

[Eagle]

The profitable within 1 to 2 years was a forecast correct, but I challenge you to find anything official that said anything else.

The shareholders have invested in excess of £13m in launching the business and funding its losses, and have now concluded that there is no reasonable prospect that Wrexham & Shropshire can become profitable, or offer a return on this investment.

---------------------

By the way I'm going to accept that you have confidential information that you can't divulge.
But I still think that if you did, then you shouldn't have alluded to it by making your initial post at all, because you know people are going to start questioning you and asking you for your sources.

Sorry for any animosity. Friends?

 

[seventh-heaven]

If no one commented on this forum with info that had to remain annonymous it would be a dull place!

 

[Lampshade]

Also because they're hella less reliable than Voyagers.

(To be fair, GC's HSTs are potentially poachable...)

To replace with what that can run at 125mph? 67s are a no go due to their abysmal route availability.

That said, a common HST pool with XC might alleviate some overcrowding problems.

 

[BOSCH]

Sorry BOSCH, but this has to be done :


Rearrange these words: Pie, Eat, Humble.

Eating a large helping as I type,ya Bassa !!!

 

[91101]

I do hope that Ian Yeowart does have an involvement in the business again!! Was always a much better company with him at the helm!