Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[Annetts key]

I think they mostly import from India, but yes Russia is struggling with diesel supply and even if they can obtain more diesel, at this stage they are far more likely to use it themselves than export it to the wider global market. This is just Trump desperation ahead of the mid-terms (although at least that suggests he's not confident he can steal them).

For the past three or more months, Russia has had an export ban on petrol and diesel. And as indicated above, has been desperate to import such fuels from whatever countries are willing to trade with them. Which is not many.

So that tells you how bad the situation is in Russia.

So this so called deal between Trump and Putin is all for show and propaganda. An absolute gift for Putin as it divides people and countries. Which Putin obviously thinks will help him.

Of course, even if Russia could export diesel to the U.S., by the time the relatively small amount (compared to the U.S. consumption rate) makes it there, the mid term elections will be either very close or underway. So it's unlikely the price at the pump will change very much if at all.

Which makes this move by Trump even more stupid, as those electors are far more likely to judge him by how they are affected rather than by what he says, many of the electors having already lost trust in him.

 

[dgl]

Trump: "We will get all the diesel Russia can supply us to help lower fuel costs"

Reporter (after a few months): "I've been looking at the figures Mr. President and it seems Russia haven't given us any diesel at all"

Trump: "I promised we'd get all the diesel Russia could give us, and that's what we got. They didn't have enough to give us any, so unlike the Democrats I've kept my promise!"

 

[DerekC]

So Trump has now announced an "energy ceasefire" but it seems to be a surprise to Ukraine and Russia has yet to comment. He's really thrashing about desperately now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pvg4jyz1m0o

Donald Trump has claimed that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an "energy ceasefire", with Kyiv saying it would support such a move but Moscow yet to comment.

The US president insisted that it was "effective immediately" but provided no details.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially expressed surprise at the announcement, before saying Kyiv would support it if Moscow did. He also accused Russia of striking Ukrainian energy facilities after Trump's post.

Trump has been urging Ukraine to stop strikes on Russian oil infrastructure - which Kyiv says are vital to curtailing revenue for Moscow's war machine - so Russia can fulfil a recently-struck deal to release diesel to the US and the global market.

The diesel deal, temporarily undoing sanctions on Russian imports, is attracting growing criticism. Zelensky called it a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin. European officials and some US politicians, including from Trump's Republican party, have said they do not support it.

 

[Pete_uk]

Just when you think you have reached the bottom of the cesspit, a whole new level opens up with even worse horrors to encounter.

 

[Strathclyder]

Zelensky has of course listened to the invective and had to respond. He said he supports Trump's energy ceasefire.

Indeed, but only if Russia/Putin do the same, which I somewhat doubt given their silence on the matter thus far, to say nothing of their attacks on civillan infrastructure in Ukraine not letting up. The only reason he's come out with this idea at all is just another desperate, flailing attempt at digging himself out of the hole he dug for himself in Iran all so that he can save his own sorry backside in the midterms.

 

[jon0844]

Indeed, but only if Russia/Putin do the same, which I somewhat doubt given their silence on the matter thus far, to say nothing of their attacks on civillan infrastructure in Ukraine not letting up. The only reason he's come out with this idea at all is just another desperate, flailing attempt at digging himself out of the hole he dug for himself in Iran all so that he can save his own sorry backside in the midterms.

Trump wouldn't expect Ukraine to 'give up' defending itself, so it plays perfectly with the narrative that gas prices are high because of Ukraine, and nothing to do with attacking Iran.

That's what he will (is) tell(ing) the people so they'll still vote for the Republican candidates in the mid-terms.

 

[DerekC]

Trump wouldn't expect Ukraine to 'give up' defending itself, so it plays perfectly with the narrative that gas prices are high because of Ukraine, and nothing to do with attacking Iran.

That's what he will (is) tell(ing) the people so they'll still vote for the Republican candidates in the mid-terms.

Yes, so if only Ukraine would be sensible and put themselves back under Putin's rule the Republicans would win the mid terms and Trump could look forward to another two years of unfettered madness.

 

[najaB]

That's what he will (is) tell(ing) the people so they'll still vote for the Republican candidates in the mid-terms.

Too little, too late. Most people already decided which way they'll vote weeks or months ago, if they haven't already voted.

 

[Killingworth]

Too little, too late. Most people already decided which way they'll vote weeks or months ago, if they haven't already voted.

Unfortunately for many/most of us on here Trump still has a lot of support in places we tend to discount. In fact many Republicans can't stand Trump any more than we can but will vote for their party candidate because they detest Democrats! Unfortunately Trump's ill mannered, ignorant rhetoric has succeeded in reinforcing that. How far we'll very soon discover.

The scary part is how he and his acolytes react to the results - and also how all the Democrats react in response. The polarisation in US society is unlikely to lessen any time soon - if ever!

 

[speedy1]

A friend invited me to visit them in NYC but I can't shake the fear of the craziness going on.

Anyone else written off USA totally as a destination until an administration change?

 

[Sorcerer]

A friend invited me to visit them in NYC but I can't shake the fear of the craziness going on.

Anyone else written off USA totally as a destination until an administration change?

For what it's worth I think you'll probably be fine; I've had family visiting the US during this administration and nothing happened to them. If it's the MAGA crowd specifically you are worried about then I'd hedge New York as being one of the least troublesome states despite being Trump's home and birthplace; California is perhaps only one I'd place above it. Perhaps more well-travelled forum members could give you better advice.

 

[AndrewE]

Funnily enough I just read a query on another message list from a Yank:

I am thinking about going to Skegness for [something] in 2027.

Is there going to be a problem with any unrest ( like in France) there or in Manchester around that time?
Here in the US, we do not have a good picture of what is going on.

Frank G. H.

 

[Sorcerer]

Funnily enough I just read a query on another message list from a Yank:

Interesting they mention France's unrest because I had an overnight stay in Paris recently, and had I not already heard about it on the internet, I genuinely never would've guessed it. Just goes to show how much the media really influences our perception of places and how much people like Trump prey upon those concerns. The rise of social media and the 24-hour news cycle makes it easy to forget the world has never actually been in a better state than today.

 

[Cdd89]

A friend invited me to visit them in NYC but I can't shake the fear of the craziness going on.

Anyone else written off USA totally as a destination until an administration change?

The statistics definitely bear out your feelings, US tourism volumes are staggeringly low. The question is, how cheap would flights need to get for you to change your mind?

I booked Orlando to London (on Norse, admittedly) last month and the £75 I paid must be an all-time record for a cash fare.

(Unfortunately the same bargains are not to be found on hotels or domestic flights, since Americans still travel internally..!)

 

[Annetts key]

Unfortunately for many/most of us on here Trump still has a lot of support in places we tend to discount. In fact many Republicans can't stand Trump any more than we can but will vote for their party candidate because they detest Democrats! Unfortunately Trump's ill mannered, ignorant rhetoric has succeeded in reinforcing that. How far we'll very soon discover.

The scary part is how he and his acolytes react to the results - and also how all the Democrats react in response. The polarisation in US society is unlikely to lessen any time soon - if ever!

The MAGA faithful will of course mostly still vote for the Republican candidates.

Many "traditional" Republicans will vote for the Republican candidates. But some may decide not to vote at all and some may even decide to vote for a Democrat.

The Democrat supporters will of course vote for Democrat candidates.

But the biggest move will be those voters who are neither Republicans or Democrats (so called "floating" voters) and it looks like many of those that vote may well vote for a Democrat candidate.

In states that lean Republican and almost always return Republicans to the House in Congress or to the Senate, they will not likely change. The states that almost always return Democrats will do so again. So the battlegrounds are the states that may be flipped. Where Republican seats can be lost to the Democrats.

Anyhoo, the recent news on the polling is not good news for Trump or the Republicans.

Here's a couple of articles:

Trump is failing to arrest decline in popularity, FT poll shows
Ian Hodgson

Donald Trump is running out of time to lift dismal approval ratings only weeks out from the midterm elections, with voters in a new FT poll continuing to give him low marks on his handling of the US economy.

Just one-quarter of registered voters approve of the president’s handling of jobs and the economy, while roughly one-fifth approve of his handling of inflation, according to a nationwide survey conducted by the FT and Focaldata.

The findings come as Trump has thrown himself into congressional campaigns and as Republican lawmakers urge him to do more to address voter concerns about the rising cost of living. The party has also flooded the airwaves with ads to help candidates in tight races.

More than two-thirds of respondents to the FT poll said the economy is headed in the wrong direction. The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, falling well short of economists’ expectations and raising doubts about the resilience of the labour market.

Trump’s overall approval rating also remained stubbornly low at 34 per cent. Forty-five per cent of registered voters said the president was making it harder for Republican candidates to win in November.

The findings align with the Cook Political Report’s assessment of a deteriorating electoral environment for Republicans. The non-partisan outlet recently moved 18 House races towards Democrats in its rating of race competitiveness and projected that Democrats will gain nine to 19 House seats in November.

Registered voters said they preferred Democrats to Republicans by over 5 percentage points, according to the FT poll.

The poll also revealed widespread disagreement with Trump’s policy priorities on artificial intelligence and Iran. Roughly two-thirds said they favoured binding federal rules for AI companies and a more cautious pace of development — positions that cut against the president’s emphasis on voluntary safeguards and rapid innovation.

Trump’s approval rating on Iran has fallen by more than 7 percentage points since May, with less than one-quarter of registered voters now approving of his handling of the conflict.

Nearly two-thirds of registered voters said the US should prioritise reaching an agreement as soon as possible, rather than continuing the conflict until it secures more favourable terms. Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in late September as the war entered its eighth month.

The conflict has driven up US borrowing costs and petrol prices in recent months. US diesel prices, the workhorse fuel for American industry and agriculture, hit an all-time high of $6.53 late last month, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Despite the president’s eroding popularity with his own base, Republican voters remain loyal to their party, whose midterm performance could hinge on whether dissatisfied Trump voters and independents can separate their views of the president from their support of his party.

Less than 70 per cent of registered voters who backed Trump in 2024 now approve of his performance, down from 80 per cent in May, when the FT first began polling voters. Yet 80 per cent still intend to vote for the Republican candidate in their district come November — a share that has remained largely unchanged over the same period.

The FT poll was conducted online by Focaldata, a London-based, non-partisan research company, October 2-4. It reflects the opinions of 2,275 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Link
Yahoo article based on the above FT report, link

Who do latest polls show winning 2026 midterms? See odds, forecasts​

PhillyBurbs

Democrats are favored to win the House, while the battle for the Senate remains much closer. Here's what the latest polls, odds and midterm election forecasts actually show now.

The Nov. 3 midterm elections are just weeks away as the race for control of Congress is in its final month. The main contention, of course, continues to be if Republicans will maintain control of Congress.

As of the latest polls, Democrats appear to hold a midterm advantage nationally.

The battle for control of Congress is becoming one of the most closely watched political fights of President Donald Trump's second term.

Republicans currently hold unified power in Washington, controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress. That could change Nov. 3, when voters decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats and 39 gubernatorial races nationwide.

If Democrats win either the House or Senate, it could significantly complicate Trump's ability to advance major legislation and Republican priorities. A flip of both chambers would reshape the political landscape in Washington, opening the door to aggressive oversight investigations, subpoena battles — and renewed talk of impeachment.

Who is winning the midterms right now? Latest polls, predictions​

According to RealClearPolling's generic congressional ballot average, Democrats lead Republicans by 7.9 percentage points, 49.8% to 41.9%.

In a closer look at who Americans will vote for in their own districts, this week's Economist/YouGov poll showed there is still a meaningful share of voters that remain undecided or could still change their minds before Election Day:

• 47% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate.
• 38% said they would vote for the Republican candidate.
• 15% said they were undecided, would support another option, or would not vote.

Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket and Kalshi odds​

Prediction markets have moved sharply toward Democrats in recent weeks, particularly in the fight for control of the House. In the Polymarket betting odds on who will win the 2026 midterms, the odds are have grown to 63% in favor of a Democratic Party sweep to win in both the Senate and the House.

• 91% favor a Democratic Party win for the House in midterms 2026
• 64% favor a Democratic Party win for the Senate in midterms 2026
• 63% favor a Democratic Party sweep of the House and Senate in midterms 2026

The Kalshi markets show a similar outlook:

• 90% favor a Democratic Party win for the House in midterms 2026
• 61% favor a Republican Party win for the Senate in the midterms 2026
• 61% favor a Democratic Party sweep of the House and Senate

While polling and prediction markets are not forecasts of the final vote, both currently point toward Democrats as favorites to gain ground and potentially retake Congress in November.

Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers reflect polling and odds as of Friday, October 9, 2026.

Who will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?​

Democrats are widely favored to win control of the House, where Republicans hold only a narrow majority and Democrats need relatively few seat pickups to reclaim the chamber.

The Senate is proving to be a more difficult battlefield. Several closely watched races in Iowa, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan and Alaska remain competitive, leaving control of the chamber less certain despite Democrats' recent gains in polling and prediction markets.

When is the 2026 midterm election?​

The 2026 midterm election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Voters will decide control of the House and Senate while also casting ballots in gubernatorial and other state and local races across the country.

Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist covering trending and breaking topics across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for USA Today Network. Reach her at mfrancis@usatodayco.com.

Link

From VoteHub Do Americans approve of Donald Trump? "poll of polls" chart:

 

[ainsworth74]

Funnily enough I just read a query on another message list from a Yank:

It is interesting. There is a view, particularly online, that the UK is basically a sharia law hellhole where Islam has become the de facto state religion and you'll be stabbed by a migrant as soon as you leave your front door especially if you're white. This, of course, does not reflect my experience of visiting any part of the UK! Nor is it born out in any of the statistics you care to look at. Islam (of any sort, let alone extreme Islam) remains a minority pursuit in the UK (around 6% of the population dwarfed by No Religion at around 38% and Christian at around 46%). Knife crime is certainly a problem in the UK especially in certain places like parts of urban London but the murder rate in London is dwarfed by the murder rates in most, if not all, major (and some minor) US cities. Let alone the UK murder rate nationally compared to the US murder rate nationally.

And yet, online, you'd think that we all leave in fear of our lives of the machete wielding Islamic extremist migrant from a small boat...

I follow a few people online that aren't MAGA but are on conservative side. And it's painful to hear the nonsense they come out with about the UK when you actually live here and can actually see what's going on.

I hesitate to suggest that the US is being subject to a deliberate disinformation campaign aimed at unmooring US sympathies with a traditional staunch ally. Especially one that has since 2024 elected a left wing Government (you can argue how left wing but Labour are certainly more on the left than the Republican Party) that isn't really buying what the US are ideologically selling.

But then you look at how many people are being persuaded here in the UK that London is a crime ridden hellhole and you can't help but wonder if there isn't some sort of disinformation campaign underway after all...

 

[najaB]

A friend invited me to visit them in NYC but I can't shake the fear of the craziness going on.

Anyone else written off USA totally as a destination until an administration change?

I haven't written it off completely (I was just in San Francisco last week for a conference), but it definitely is low on my list of preferred destinations. Also, until and unless things change, any travel to the USA will either be via Dublin or Toronto so that I use the CBP pre-clearance facilities since the officers there seem to be less likely to look for trouble (because you can just say "I've changed my mind" and walk away).

 

[jon0844]

Funnily enough I just read a query on another message list from a Yank:

Well Skegness isn't bad because if the lies spread online, but I wouldn't have put it high up on my list of places to visit .. but to each their own!

 

[BuhSnarf]

I follow a few people online that aren't MAGA but are on conservative side. And it's painful to hear the nonsense they come out with about the UK when you actually live here and can actually see what's going on.

And this is I think is also true the other way around.

Whilst Trump is causing some crazy political shenanigans the majority of the folks in the US are still just hard working friendly people and it would not be radically different to a tourist than how it was under Biden / Trump 1 or Obama. As a tourist you'll be pretty safe.

 

[uglymonkey]

A few news reports I think "taints" peoples perception re what will happen at the border as you want to be admitted. The risk of ending up on a concrete floor detained in a detention camp, your social media accounts checked, ICE being free and easy with their firearms.All this leaves a " taste" which is difficult, once established to remove. I have been to the US many times and have many friends there, but I would be hesitant to go now.

 

[cb a1]

For me, not going to the US would be for the same reason that I wouldn't visit Russia, N. Korea, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc. Visiting these countries would mean that I am spending my money there and by extension that helps support the existing governments (and yes, I am fully aware of the hypocrisy when my debit card is Visa, I use software from companies based in the US, etc., etc.)
I know it is like adding a snowflake to a mountainside in terms of effect, but "All it takes for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing." and Yes, I believe Donald Trump is evil.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I haven't written it off completely (I was just in San Francisco last week for a conference), but it definitely is low on my list of preferred destinations. Also, until and unless things change, any travel to the USA will either be via Dublin or Toronto so that I use the CBP pre-clearance facilities since the officers there seem to be less likely to look for trouble (because you can just say "I've changed my mind" and walk away).

Back in the 1980's I stayed with a friend on the Upper West Side in NYC and explored the city and especially the Bronx - not a problem anywhere and the subway was fine , provided one kept a slightly more wary approach. Mayor Koch was in charge then - determined to clean the city up - especially the graffiti epidemic of the subway and crime in general - even went round the NYPD training academy which in those days you could apply to do and got a "ride out" in a patrol car - excellent experience.

 

[Broucek]

Interesting they mention France's unrest because I had an overnight stay in Paris recently, and had I not already heard about it on the internet, I genuinely never would've guessed it. Just goes to show how much the media really influences our perception of places and how much people like Trump prey upon those concerns. The rise of social media and the 24-hour news cycle makes it easy to forget the world has never actually been in a better state than today.

About 10 years ago, I was in the US and a woman asked me if various things about the UK and Europe were true. They were all bonkers but she'd seen them on Fox News.... Of course, for every person with the smarts to ask, there's another 99 that swallow the lies

 

[najaB]

I can't see this winning the administration any fans in the armed services and veteran communities:

The debate over the U.S. war with Iran has sparked a multifaceted debate, but there’s one element of the public discussion that ought to be entirely straightforward: the number of U.S. service members who’ve died as part of the conflict.

But even this basic detail has become a point of unexpected and unnecessary contention. The New York Times reported:

The Pentagon has again quietly raised the number of U.S. service members killed and wounded during operations related to the Iran war amid widening criticism over the lack of transparency about the conflict’s human and operational costs.

The military now is reporting that 21 U.S. service members have been killed, up from 18, and 865 wounded, up by 98 since August.

The Defense Department didn’t issue a public statement about the change. Rather, late Friday — a time frequently utilized by politicians to release information they hope will go unnoticed — the Pentagon revised its data on its Defense Casualty Analysis System website.

Source: https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-sh...n-fatalities-casualties-war-iran-defense-dcas

There was a time that the under-reporting of deaths would be an instant career-ending act for a Secretary of Defence.

 

[Bald Rick]

A friend invited me to visit them in NYC but I can't shake the fear of the craziness going on.

Anyone else written off USA totally as a destination until an administration change?

NYC is essentially a Trump supporter Free zone; evryone I’ve ever met there detests him. More so in the last few months. It’s a wonderful city,

There is a view, particularly online, that the UK is basically a sharia law hellhole where Islam has become the de facto state religion and you'll be stabbed by a migrant as soon as you leave your front door especially if you're white.

I see a similar view on my SM feeds, ie ’Mericans saying they are being told it’s a violent place, some parts of cities are no go areas, the food is awful, etc etc. But when I speak to Americans they don’t see this stuff over there. Perhaps some do, but I don’t come across them on my travels / discussions.

 

[Spamcan81]

A friend invited me to visit them in NYC but I can't shake the fear of the craziness going on.

Anyone else written off USA totally as a destination until an administration change?

I have. There are air shows and heritage railways I want to visit, plus see the Big Boy in action but they’ll have to wait for now.

 

[PudseyBearHST]

It is interesting. There is a view, particularly online, that the UK is basically a sharia law hellhole where Islam has become the de facto state religion and you'll be stabbed by a migrant as soon as you leave your front door especially if you're white. This, of course, does not reflect my experience of visiting any part of the UK! Nor is it born out in any of the statistics you care to look at. Islam (of any sort, let alone extreme Islam) remains a minority pursuit in the UK (around 6% of the population dwarfed by No Religion at around 38% and Christian at around 46%). Knife crime is certainly a problem in the UK especially in certain places like parts of urban London but the murder rate in London is dwarfed by the murder rates in most, if not all, major (and some minor) US cities. Let alone the UK murder rate nationally compared to the US murder rate nationally.

And yet, online, you'd think that we all leave in fear of our lives of the machete wielding Islamic extremist migrant from a small boat...

I follow a few people online that aren't MAGA but are on conservative side. And it's painful to hear the nonsense they come out with about the UK when you actually live here and can actually see what's going on.

I hesitate to suggest that the US is being subject to a deliberate disinformation campaign aimed at unmooring US sympathies with a traditional staunch ally. Especially one that has since 2024 elected a left wing Government (you can argue how left wing but Labour are certainly more on the left than the Republican Party) that isn't really buying what the US are ideologically selling.

But then you look at how many people are being persuaded here in the UK that London is a crime ridden hellhole and you can't help but wonder if there isn't some sort of disinformation campaign underway after all...

It’s incredibly frustrating listening to an American on YouTube or on right wing news tell us how awful our country is and how it is on the verge of civil war. I am no defender of London and don’t particularly like it for other reasons but it really isn’t that bad. It’s one thing hearing it from e.g. Tommy Robinson who’s British but not from a foreigner who has not even stepped foot in the country. e.g. Laura Loomer.

A friend invited me to visit them in NYC but I can't shake the fear of the craziness going on.

Anyone else written off USA totally as a destination until an administration change?

With regards to visiting the US, I concur with others that you shouldn’t get any issues and is really no different to any other time. The reality is the US is a vast (and beautiful!) country and whoever is in the White House doesn’t change day to day life for the average American. If you spend time in the US, you can see and understand why most Americans are pretty clueless about the rest of the world.

Now if you choose to boycott it for moral reasons, that’s up to you and I wouldn’t blame you for it but I wouldn’t be scared about going.

 

[najaB]

Now if you choose to boycott it for moral reasons, that’s up to you and I wouldn’t blame you for it but I wouldn’t be scared about going.

That depends a lot on your melanin levels, and where in the country you are.

 

[BuhSnarf]

There was a time that the under-reporting of deaths would be an instant career-ending act for a Secretary of Defence.

Good job they don't have a Secretary of Defence anymore

 

[najaB]

Good job they don't have a Secretary of Defence anymore

Despite his self-styling as Secretary of War, Sec Def is a cabinet-level position that was established by Congress and so his title can only be officially changed by Congress.