Rail usage

[YorkshireBear]

Nope. It is a result of the large engineering work programme that wasn‘t as severe the previous year.

Ah okay. Hadn't noticed this year was worse than last but you're right.

I wondered if reductions in large flows like Durham to Newcastle might impact total journeys but not revenue or passenger km.

 

[Taunton]

It's always going to. TOCs are still pushing out ridiculous levels of Advanced tickets at silly prices - look at LNWR Advanced tickets sales, loads for under £10-15 that aren't necessary as they would sell at off-peak pricing anyway.

It's not just that, it's that straightforward, reasonable fares for those who don't/can't plan their day to the minute three months out have been eliminated.

Out of Kings Cross, some major long distance destinations are every 20/30 minutes. But this is useless unless you go for the hugely priced Anytime tickets. For mainstream business travellers like myself, not knowing at all what time I'll be coming back, there seems no interest. This used to be a significant amount of railway revenue. Our current choice is between an Advance, with the prospect of having to leave before the deal is done (so what's the point in going) or Anytime, so expensive that we say "we'll drive instead if it costs that much".

It's not even just the return leg. Buy an Advance, and then the afternoon before colleague there says 'Come up on the train before and we'll discuss it all over breakfast before the start'.

 

[imagination]

track this cohort through time, which is what this table does:

Are you able to provide the source of this? It seems a useful thing to keep record of in order to reference back to.

 

[CeeJ]

Out of Kings Cross, some major long distance destinations are every 20/30 minutes. But this is useless unless you go for the hugely priced Anytime tickets. For mainstream business travellers like myself, not knowing at all what time I'll be coming back, there seems no interest. This used to be a significant amount of railway revenue. Our current choice is between an Advance, with the prospect of having to leave before the deal is done (so what's the point in going) or Anytime, so expensive that we say "we'll drive instead if it costs that much".

I relate to this a lot - very common to do the advance up and evening flex back on the MML. Although rather than securing the deal it’s more about whether we go to the pub!

Requiring advances each way does ruin that somewhat.

 

[Taunton]

Although rather than securing the deal it’s more about whether we go to the pub!

Sometimes the same thing .

 

[Sonic1234]

Out of Kings Cross, some major long distance destinations are every 20/30 minutes. But this is useless unless you go for the hugely priced Anytime tickets.

Exactly. If you use Advances, there may as well only be one train per day.

 

[The Ham]

Are you able to provide the source of this? It seems a useful thing to keep record of in order to reference back to.

The data on number of licenses is from here:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68a4318af49bec79d23d298b/nts0201.ods

It's then a case of getting the population data over time, for between 1991 and 2024 is done through this search function:

Session expired - Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics

nomis - official labour market statistics

www.nomisweb.co.uk

I've created one with the ages in 5 year bands, to get the 17 to 24 band you would do a search by individual age years:



Of course you could ask AI to create the table and do some checks to check that it's broadly accurate.

 

[imagination]

The data on number of licenses is from here:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68a4318af49bec79d23d298b/nts0201.ods

It's then a case of getting the population data over time, for between 1991 and 2024 is done through this search function:

Session expired - Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics

nomis - official labour market statistics

www.nomisweb.co.uk

I've created one with the ages in 5 year bands, to get the 17 to 24 band you would do a search by individual age years:

View attachment 206416

Of course you could ask AI to create the table and do some checks to check that it's broadly accurate.

Thanks.

 

[Snow1964]

Dft have updated their usage spreadsheet since covid

Column G includes Elizabeth line
Column H excludes it

some recent examples (vs pre-covid)
Wed 22 July 111% 100%
Thu 23 July 111% 100%
Fri 24 July 120% 108%
Sat 25 July 121% 108%
Sun 26 July 121% 109%
Mon 27 July 122% 109%
Tue 28 July 123% 110%
Wed 29 July 113% 102%

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

So the idea that operators should still be running thinned out covid timetables seems rather thin now, and whilst some commuter operators might be down on Fridays, some others must be well up if getting averages upto 110% (or 123% with Elizabeth line)

Suggests to me that some areas must be 20%+ up, not that I can think of a single operator that has a 20% bigger fleet than 7 years ago

 

[deltic]

I'm intrigued by the DfT dataset as it tends to report higher numbers than the ORR data.

 

[styles]

Dft have updated their usage spreadsheet since covid

Column G includes Elizabeth line
Column H excludes it

some recent examples (vs pre-covid)
Wed 22 July 111% 100%
Thu 23 July 111% 100%
Fri 24 July 120% 108%
Sat 25 July 121% 108%
Sun 26 July 121% 109%
Mon 27 July 122% 109%
Tue 28 July 123% 110%
Wed 29 July 113% 102%

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

So the idea that operators should still be running thinned out covid timetables seems rather thin now, and whilst some commuter operators might be down on Fridays, some others must be well up if getting averages upto 110% (or 123% with Elizabeth line)

Suggests to me that some areas must be 20%+ up, not that I can think of a single operator that has a 20% bigger fleet than 7 years ago

I'm not sure about those individual day breakdowns, but for the last full month, rail is down compared to 2019. As is bus usage in and out of London. In fact only motor traffic is up:

Table 1: Latest transport usage, by mode​

In the current publishing period, the summer school holidays started which impacted usage in the final week of July for some modes, such as National Rail.

Mode	Publishing period	Latest usage at date	Commentary
Rail (GB excluding Elizabeth Line)	6 Jul to 2 Aug 2026	98% (Sunday 2 August 2026)	Passenger journeys in the week ending Sunday 2 August 2026 were 98% of those observed in the equivalent week in 2019. In the current publishing period weekly average usage figures have been between 90% to 110%, compared to 89% to 97% in the last publishing period. These figures exclude Elizabeth Line services usage.
Bus (GB excluding London)	14 Jul to 10 Aug 2026	74% (Monday 10 August 2026)	Bus boardings outside of London on Monday 10 August 2026 were 74% of the volume observed on the equivalent day in the third week of January 2020. This is 4 percentage points higher compared to the equivalent day in the previous year (70% on Monday 11 August 2025). In the current publishing period weekday bus usage has been between 67% to 78% of the pre-COVID-19 baseline, in comparison to between 68% to 84% in the last publishing period.
London Bus	11 Jul to 7 Aug 2026	85% (Friday 7 August 2026)	TfL bus boardings on Friday 7 August 2026 were 85% of the equivalent day in 2019. In the current publishing period weekday TfL bus usage has been between 79% to 87% of the pre-COVID-19 baseline, in comparison to between 70% to 85% in the last publishing period.
London Tube	11 Jul to 7 Aug 2026	78% (Friday 7 August 2026)	Tube entries and exits on Friday 7 August 2026 were 78% of the equivalent day in 2019. Weekday tube usage in the current publishing period has been between 75% to 92% of the pre-COVID-19 baseline, in comparison to between 67% to 87% in the last publishing period.
Motor Traffic (GB)	14 Jul to 10 Aug 2026	105% (Monday 10 August 2026)	On Monday 10 August 2026 traffic volumes were 105% of the levels during the first week of February 2020. This is 1 percentage point higher compared to the equivalent day in the previous year (104% on Monday 11 August 2025). Weekday usage in this publishing period has been between 101% to 107% of the pre-COVID-19 baseline, in comparison to 102% to 109% in the last publishing period.

 

[Stephen42]

I'm intrigued by the DfT dataset as it tends to report higher numbers than the ORR data.

They are both predominately based on the same underlying data.

The biggest difference is the DfT dataset is a rolling weekly comparison to the "same" week in 2020 or 2019. A figure is given each day but the following day will have 6 out of 7 days the same in the comparison. With a short time period variations are much more pronounced, which can be just natural travel variation and data artefacts (it's day of settlement not travel causing variation if uploads gets delayed).

If look at the 8 days before the numbers given in the post above they are in 101% to 105% range or 90% to 94% excluding Elizabeth line painting a very different picture. From the numbers alone you can't say which is more representative, the series is designed to show long term trends.

While you can't just average the figures to get the true average, it's likely not too far off. The DfT dataset average for the latest ORR rail usage quarter (Jan to March 2026) is 101%. The ORR increase for that quarter on 2019 is 0.8% which would round to 101%.

 

[Kite159]

It also ignores the population growth between 2026 & 2019

 

[styles]

It also ignores the population growth between 2026 & 2019

Quite. Car usage is up in absolute terms, but slightly down when population growth is factored in.

All forms of public transport appear to be down in both absolute terms and in relation to growth.

It's not exactly surprising given the increase in remote working.

 

[Y Ddraig Coch]

The constant tv / radio adverts for generic rail travel rather than TOC specific say things must be slightly down from what they are seeing.

 

[Peter0124]

I can imagine leisure travel is up compared with 2019

 

[Sonic1234]

It's not exactly surprising given the increase in remote working.

Also the trends towards staying in, home deliveries, online shopping, less pull factors to get people to visit towns.....

 

[styles]

Also the trends towards staying in, home deliveries, online shopping, less pull factors to get people to visit towns.....

Potentially yes. Though personally I find I socialise outside my house roughly the same as I did pre-COVID to be honest. The bus fare cap encourages me to take the bus over train sometimes, but apart from that I'd say my private car transport vs public transport is about the same, bar the commuting.

 

[zwk500]

I'd say my private car transport vs public transport is about the same, bar the commuting.

Most people pre-covid would have used the train 8 or 10 times a week for commuting, and probably 1-4 times a week for non-commuting (counting getting a later train because you've stayed for drinks in town after work as commuting) so the 'bar the commuting' is still quite a dramatic change.

I don't know about your personal circumstances, so that may not hold true for you specifically.

 

[The exile]

Would be berating to see the underlying reliability and punctuality figures for the comparable period (or rather with a lag as In thinking of public perception, which will tend to be “behind the curve”). I expect, for example, that the number of people choosing to make train trips on the Midlands Main Line at the moment compares unfavourably with 2019.

 

[Dr Day]

Market share is still, IMHO, a better indicator of the success or otherwise the railway, or public transport versus cars. It isn’t terribly easy to establish though.

 

[Snow1964]

Would be berating to see the underlying reliability and punctuality figures for the comparable period (or rather with a lag as In thinking of public perception, which will tend to be “behind the curve”). I expect, for example, that the number of people choosing to make train trips on the Midlands Main Line at the moment compares unfavourably with 2019.

EMR official performance figures are published

On time trains 52.77%
Within 3 minutes (Industry standard) 72.78%
cancellations 6.77%

Train performance figures | EMR

Find out how our actual service ran, compared with our published timetable of rail services over the past four weeks.

www.eastmidlandsrailway.co.uk

ORR now allows a period to be selected ob its P-coded report, and for EMR that pushes cancellations up from 6.6% to 7.7%

P-coded cancellations | ORR Data Portal

EMR is similar to our patch, GWR. (GWR doesn't use P-code in stats)

On time trains 53.07%
Within 3 minutes (industry standard) 70.64%
cancellations 6.35%

https://www.gwr.com/-/media/gwr-sc-website/files/publications/performance-report/gwr-performance-report-period-2704.pdf

But no idea how this compares to 7 years ago pre-covid before all the incentives were changed to management contracts

 

[Bald Rick]

Suggests to me that some areas must be 20%+ up, not that I can think of a single operator that has a 20% bigger fleet than 7 years ago

In terms of passenger carrying capacity diagrammed in service, EMR, GA, LNER, TfW and of course the Elizabeth line all have much higher capacity than in 2019 (at a educated guess more than 20% higher), and GWR, WMR, Avanti, even Cross Country are higher too.

 

[Magdalia]

Suggests to me that some areas must be 20%+ up, not that I can think of a single operator that has a 20% bigger fleet than 7 years ago

The capacity increase on Greater Anglia has been huge. Replacing 2*class 379 with class 745 on Stansted Express has increased capacity by about 70%. Classes 720 and 755 have added a lot of new capacity too.

There was a huge capacity increase on Thameslink and Great Northern too, much of it introduced in 2018, but the Fen Line capacity increase is after 2019.

 

[InTheEastMids]

In terms of passenger carrying capacity diagrammed in service, EMR, GA, LNER, TfW and of course the Elizabeth line all have much higher capacity than in 2019 (at a educated guess more than 20% higher), and GWR, WMR, Avanti, even Cross Country are higher too.

"Diagrammed" feels like it's doing quite a lot of heavy lifting in the context of EMR over the last days and weeks!

 

[Bald Rick]

"Diagrammed" feels like it's doing quite a lot of heavy lifting in the context of EMR over the last days and weeks!

Well yes, for EMR. Of course by now EMR shoudl have had a significant uplift in MML capacity, but that is well discussed in other threads.

 

[Snow1964]

Latest quarterly usage covering April - June 2026 have been published by ORR

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/u3dhxikw/passenger-rail-usage-apr-jun-2026.pdf

2% higher than same quarter previous year

Figure 1.1 has passenger journeys by operator, top is +16% vs 2025, lowest (London Overground -6%)

Not so much data, but page 7 has references to various ORR data tables,

Per table 1233 Passenger kilometers (my preferred version as it ignores split ticket effect that number of journeys can sometimes muddle) comparing to Apr-June 2019 (last year pre-covid)

Sorted by % growth over 7 years (2019 to 2026)

Operator - 2019 - 2026 - Percent of 2019
Elizabeth line 164m 670m 407.94%
Hull Trains 66m 98m 148.46%
Grand Central 100m 124m 123.17%
Transport for Wales 314m 360m 114.56%
London North Eastern 1562m 1754m 112.28%
Merseyrail 140m 151m 108.08%
Northern 700m 751m 107.26%
East Midlands 595m 629m 105.71%
Great Western 1573m 1652m 105.06%
Cross Country 970m 1011m 104.21%
West Midlands 752m 773m 102.79%
TransPennine Express 534m 544m 101.88%
London Overground 313m 309m 98.83%
Scotrail 729m 719m 98.53%
Greater Anglia 995m 977m 98.26%
Avanti West Coast 1939m 1759m 90.69%
Greater Thameslink 2398m 2361m 90.11%
South Eastern 1168m 984m 84.24%
South Western 1497m 1257m 83.97%
Heathrow Express 41m 32m 78.80%
Caledonian Sleeper 61m 48m 78.48%
Chiltern 415m 319m 76.86%
C2C 306m 232m 75.93%
Lumo n/a 194m -

Overall Total 17,334m 17,509m 101.01%

Few things stand out :
1) many of the newly nationalised operators are near the bottom,
2) the crazy variation in sizes From GTR 2361m passenger km to the low 32m Km of Heathrow Express
3) The operators with some new Trains, Anglia, SWR, Avanti are towards the bottom, but northern with old trains near the top (something wrong with replacement priorities here)

 

[John R]

The standout statistic is that revenue decreased by 1% (after adjustment for inflation). Whilst that was entirely predictable given the fare freeze, it will no doubt set a few hares running in the industry and government.

 

[millemille]

The standout statistic is that revenue decreased by 1% (after adjustment for inflation). Whilst that was entirely predictable given the fare freeze, it will no doubt set a few hares running in the industry and government.

And that 1% reduction in revenue for the single quarter more than wipes out the operational savings which led to an 11% reduction in operating subsidies for the previous 12 months....

 

[Watershed]

The standout statistic is that revenue decreased by 1% (after adjustment for inflation). Whilst that was entirely predictable given the fare freeze, it will no doubt set a few hares running in the industry and government.

I think it's likely to be entirely in keeping with their forecasts. Achieving revenue growth despite a fares freeze reflects the decent passenger number growth.