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Getting the most out of the new Alstom units for TPE?

quantinghome

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And yet, the government has made a very conscious decision not to procure NPR-ready rolling stock. That tells you all you need to know. There will be no NPR this side of 2050, or 2060, or ever (in its currently published form).
This is nonsense. In all the time I've followed the TRU and NPR projects I've never heard this suggested by anyone as a thing that should happen. This rolling stock order was never going to be 'NPR-ready'. If and when NPR happens, more rolling stock will be ordered. And the rolling stock which has just been ordered will either carry on being used on the classic TRU route, or redeployed elsewhere.
 
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Starmill

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Burnham is a big backer of NPR. It's not rocket science as to what the requirements will be. They've been fairly consistent over the decade.

What's the point of spending £1 billion on development of new lines and ordering incompatible rolling stock with line, it's an inconsistent decision. Its not as if procuring a 140mph train is going to cost a lot, it'll be far cheaper than ordering a new fleet. There may well be a plan that hasn't been made public yet, I know there are elements of NPR that haven't been made public, but it seems like a strange move.
What's the point of spending it on HS2 only to not build the parts of HS2 that offered most of the benefits? Government policy is rarely to spend public money so that it's good value, it's to spend it so that it looks superficially good and wins some votes in the near term.
 

NCT

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This is nonsense. In all the time I've followed the TRU and NPR projects I've never heard this suggested by anyone as a thing that should happen. This rolling stock order was never going to be 'NPR-ready'. If and when NPR happens, more rolling stock will be ordered. And the rolling stock which has just been ordered will either carry on being used on the classic TRU route, or redeployed elsewhere.

TRU has been dragged on for so long that its current forecast completion is when NPR was supposed to be completed.

We now know that after TRU, TransPennine will be only a 5-car railway whose subsidy level still needs to be closely monitored. This is not a railway that possesses the economic characteristics that support NPR capex.

My forecast is that these Adessios will will stay on TP North as the top-tier service level for a long time to come.
 

Grimsby town

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I'd be amazed if NPR as is published ever sees the light of day. It's too politically toxic to just cancel. £1bn development money is small change for keeping excitable local politicians shut up. And who's to say the £1bn doesn't include studies of alternatives?
Of course people said the same about Crossrail, TRU and HS2 and they're all happening/completed to a large extent. As far as I know, the plans for HS2 remain largely similar to what has been discussed in the past.

Anyway, I'll avoid drifting off topic from the new TPE rolling stock. The trains are progress in many ways but I was expecting a larger step forward given these trains could potentially be in service until the 2060s. Sure the trains could be lengthened in the future, but past experience suggest they probably won't be once they're in service.
 

Killingworth

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After almost 24 hours the dust may be starting to settle.

New trains to enter service from 2034. Aurora? I hope these will work to spec. from day 1 but suspect they may not. Full fleet in operation by 2036, possibly?

By 2036 I suspect Northern and TPE will be pooled, exactly how remains to be seen.

185s will continue to be maintained at purpose built Ardwick, probably providing units to be used on EMR's Liverpool - Nottingham route (split from the full route to Norwich) and to go on routes like Leeds - Nottingham/Lincoln and Sheffield - Leeds. (Maybe a Piccadilly-Sheffield-Leeds?)

Northern are looking for 30m extra journeys by 2030. These new trains may still be operating in 2070. How much growth might we plan for by then?

Operating ageing micro fleets is going to give engineers currently unborn mighty problems sourcing all the necessary spare parts without cannibalising parts of the fleets. I say that noting how recently introduced units like the 7 year old 195s are already failing.
 

a_c_skinner

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ageing micro fleets is going to give ... problems
But we are going to do it again. What we need isn't an order for TPE or whoever but a class that will be widely used and gradually built in larger numbers - like I think the 158 were. Oh and prototyping.
 

Solent_Desiro

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In my experience from my recent and on-going Leeds-York commute, 6 to/from Redcar, 3 to/from Scarborough. I was in Selby on Wednesday, think I saw 802s to/from Hull.


The last refresh improved the internals considerably on what we go from new. And they're better than the stained, torn cloth on the 802s.

My concern is that it's 29 units, which is approaching microfleet size in my book. Hopefully there will be further orders from elsewhere, which will keep the jigs running and possibly see extra cars built (and plenty of spares for repairs).

I bet someone at EMR is looking at this and thinking "we could have had them!"
29 Units is not a micro fleet! It's likely more orders will follow.
 

Bald Rick

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Burnham is a big backer of NPR. It's not rocket science as to what the requirements will be. They've been fairly consistent over the decade.

What's the point of spending £1 billion on development of new lines and ordering incompatible rolling stock with line, it's an inconsistent decision. Its not as if procuring a 140mph train is going to cost a lot, it'll be far cheaper than ordering a new fleet. There may well be a plan that hasn't been made public yet, I know there are elements of NPR that haven't been made public, but it seems like a strange move.

To put it in context, NPR is at roughly the same stage now that HS2 was in 2012. If (and it is an ”if”) NPR happens, it will be at least 15-20 years away. These trains will have plenty of potential alternative uses, and if NOR does happen, then there will be new trains for that and these will head somewhere else. I’ll leave others to work out where a BEMU with a 90 mile range could find use.
 

Starmill

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TRU has been dragged on for so long that its current forecast completion is when NPR was supposed to be completed.

We now know that after TRU, TransPennine will be only a 5-car railway whose subsidy level still needs to be closely monitored. This is not a railway that possesses the economic characteristics that support NPR capex.

My forecast is that these Adessios will will stay on TP North as the top-tier service level for a long time to come.
It's certainly a very poor value for money choice to go running, say, two separate five cars per hour between York and Manchester when one eight would have sufficed. There will still be further services on top, I'm just drawing the comparison of part of the increased quantum. Personally I wouldn't be adding that extra fast train at all. However this is what wins the votes, because the eight going all the way to Scarborough would be unworkable, and for political reasons the Scarborough train running into the bay at York isn't workable either.
 

Magdalia

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29 Units is not a micro fleet! It's likely more orders will follow.
I hope that you are right. I don't have the bandwidth to follow the Trans Pennine Upgrade very closely: the thing I like about this announcement is that it doesn't look like a bespoke train for Trans Pennine, it looks like a train that is scalable to a large fleet with widespread applications.

Burnham is a big backer of NPR.
But Burnham has not backed NPR with funding yet. We will find out more with his 10 year plan and a Treasury spending review.

What's the point of spending £1 billion on development of new lines
The point is to specify the detail of what is required.

It's not rocket science as to what the requirements will be.
But it still takes £1.1bn and time (more than 8 months) to do it.

There may well be a plan that hasn't been made public yet
There isn't a plan until the £1.1bn has been spent working it out.
 

Bevan Price

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Surely the 185's will be cascaded to replace Northern 15x units.
More likely that they will be approaching withdrawal, as they will be over 30 years old in 2034. I cannot see Northern's successor wanting to run expensive trains anywhere.
 

stevieinselby

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And yet, the government has made a very conscious decision not to procure NPR-ready rolling stock. That tells you all you need to know. There will be no NPR this side of 2050, or 2060, or ever (in its currently published form).
Even with the best will in the world and starting work on it immediately, NPR is going to be at least 15 years away and probably more like 25. It will be every bit as difficult to design and build as HS2. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but we need to recognise the reality of what building a high speed railway through a densely populated part of the country with hostile terrain means.

But even if we knew NPR was going to be ready in 2040, why would trains built for TRU need to be suitable for NPR? It isn't like NPR will replace TPX, it will be in addition to it, in just the same way that HS2 is in addition to existing WCML services. We don't lament the Pendolino and Avero not being suitable for HS2, because they will continue to run on the classic lines in parallel with it – and likewise these trains will continue to run in parallel with any future NPR.
 

Grimsby town

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But even if we knew NPR was going to be ready in 2040, why would trains built for TRU need to be suitable for NPR? It isn't like NPR will replace TPX, it will be in addition to it, in just the same way that HS2 is in addition to existing WCML services. We don't lament the Pendolino and Avero not being suitable for HS2, because they will continue to run on the classic lines in parallel with it – and likewise these trains will continue to run in parallel with any future NPR
The plans for NPR are different to HS2 though. We're talking about far smaller diversions from the classic route from Marsden to somewhere around Liverpool. If NPR is built most, if not all of the services will be diverted on to it. There won't be capacity between Marsden and York for significant numbers of additional trains. I personally don't see scenario where these trains aren't too short in the future or are surplus to requirements.
 

Grimsby town

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As said several times upthread, there will be lots of other places on the network that they could be used.
Of course they'd but put to use. I'm not disputing that but is the quantum of units going to fit with their alternative or is it going to be a case of square pegs. It's seems like the kind of thing that the franchised system produced over and over again. I was hoping that the greater public control would lead to better planning and less need for constant cascading of rolling stock. This could be part of a wider plan, a 5 car train would certainly be easier to cascade than a 7 car train, but at this moment in time it looks like a poor decision to me.
 

hexagon789

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Although GWR do have routes that a similar spec train in would be ideal for eg Cardiff-Portsmouth or Bristol-Oxford

I realise former would need 750v dc to. (but of course GWR also serves Weymouth and Gatwick too in third rail areas)
Longer term, absolutely GWR needs new stock to replace 158, 165/166 and the 175s, but the infrastructure isn't there yet to support trains exactly like the TPE ones mechanically. Either they need more electrification or another solution.
 

Transilien

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The only section of route where they could run at 125mph would be between Colton (or Church Fenton?) and York, and between York and Northallerton if they use the fast lines. ICBW but I thought the design speed for TRU was max 110mph, so it's only a very small proportion of the overall route mileage where they won't be able to keep up with the linespeed. And the cost of building them for 125mph rather than 110mph – including the opportunity cost within the physical constraints of the vehicle, the compromise between top speed, acceleration and efficiency, and the actual cost of building and maintaining them – would be out of all proportion with the benefits of maybe saving a minute or two on some of their journeys.
Will the TPE core have enough alignment to justify 110mph?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Odd considering he's such a cheerleader for level boarding
Gareth is a cheerleader for complaining about everything. :lol:
 

Spartacus

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That's really tremendous logic. Any rail upgrade that requires the deployment of... SHOCK HORROR!... mathematics!... to work out the capacity increase is basically pointless. How else do expect to do it? Vibes?

I think that's precisely what some commentators are going off!
 

TRAX

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You can't have it both ways. The 345s may have been designed under Bombardier, but the current batch are very much built by Alstom.
Which doesn’t make it an Alstom design. Nothing is from Alstom on an Aventra, be it by design or manufacturing.
 

stevieinselby

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Will the TPE core have enough alignment to justify 110mph?
The compromises and cost of increasing to speed from 100 to 110 are far less than from increasing the speed from 110 to 125, so you don't need to have an much running at 110 to merit the upgrade – and it will be a boost that all trains running can benefit from, unlike the putative increase to 125.
 

43096

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Which doesn’t make it an Alstom design. Nothing is from Alstom on an Aventra, be it by design or manufacturing.
You are arguing just for the sake of arguing.

The new 345s being constructed now are unequivocally built by Alstom, regardless of what you think.
 

D365

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Which doesn’t make it an Alstom design. Nothing is from Alstom on an Aventra, be it by design or manufacturing.
Aside from all of the components, assemblies and certification which are being procured by, erm, Alstom.

I feel hairs are being split.
 

TRAX

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Aside from all of the components, assemblies and certification which are being procured by, erm, Alstom.

I feel hairs are being split.
Well yes because Alstom took everything over. Doesn’t make a Bombardier or ABB component an Alstom design all of a sudden. Same with the employees which didn’t really magically become Alstom employees all of a sudden. Yeah sure the pay check started saying Alstom instead of BBD, but you just don’t change a whole factory’s mentality and way of working from one manufacturer’s to another’s overnight.

Slapping an MTU logo on a Turbostar engine doesn’t change the fact that it’s in fact a Mercedes-Benz design…
 

Snow1964

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The compromises and cost of increasing to speed from 100 to 110 are far less than from increasing the speed from 110 to 125, so you don't need to have an much running at 110 to merit the upgrade – and it will be a boost that all trains running can benefit from, unlike the putative increase to 125.
With modern ac motors and electronic control systems, there is not really the old big compromise between acceleration and top speed from dc motors.

However UK has safety rules about extended nose and crash zones, which also prevent passengers using outer part of the end coach for stock above 110mph. So losing this space is only justified if can do sustained running at higher speed.

The Transpennine units will be 121m long. Although power hasn't yet been announced, the Stream units being built for Italy are 2.06MW for 66m long ETR103 and 84m long ETR104. The regional version ETR108 is 165m and has 4.12MW (also has a higher 200km/h top speed). Therefore I am guessing the 121m UK version will be about 3MW (about 4000 HP). The now superseded Aventra is about 2.3MW for class 720, 730

Journey time isn't really going to be determined by saving few seconds per mile at 90-110mph, it will be slow approaches to junctions requiring crawling at 20-40mph that takes a whole minute rather than passing through in 15-20 seconds
 

norbitonflyer

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The plans for NPR are different to HS2 though. We're talking about far smaller diversions from the classic route from Marsden to somewhere around Liverpool. If NPR is built most, if not all of the services will be diverted on to it. There won't be capacity between Marsden and York for significant numbers of additional trains. I personally don't see scenario where these trains aren't too short in the future or are surplus to requirements.
So new trains will be built for services which run to and from NPR, and the existing trains redeployed on other routes. Just as the Javelins on HS1 continue beyond Ashford over routes in Kent that used to be served by 375s.
 

Magdalia

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The plans for NPR are different to HS2 though. We're talking about far smaller diversions from the classic route from Marsden to somewhere around Liverpool. If NPR is built most, if not all of the services will be diverted on to it. There won't be capacity between Marsden and York for significant numbers of additional trains. I personally don't see scenario where these trains aren't too short in the future or are surplus to requirements.
NPR isn't a plan, at least not yet. As you say, it is just talk.

The new trains are the right length to enable them to be used in many places, not just Trans Pennine.
 

TRAX

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You are arguing just for the sake of arguing.

The new 345s being constructed now are unequivocally built by Alstom, regardless of what you think.
Building them is the only thing Alstom is doing. All the rest was done by Bombardier and the suppliers chosen by Bombardier at the time.

Some people here seem to think a Vauxhall Astra is a different car to the Opel Astra :lol:
 

Andyh82

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Ordering shorter trains with the hope the frequency increase will save them - isn’t that what they did with CrossCountry?
 

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